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Author Topic: Which economy is more likely to crash sooner- Argentina or Japan?  (Read 2545 times)
rebel24
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May 02, 2014, 01:11:31 AM
 #1

Some cliffs are:

Argentina-
25-30% inflation
has has bond yield spikes, but hasnt crashed yet...


Japan-
extremely high debt, and artifically very low bond yields
the risk is when bond yields go up Japan could have to do a ton of printing... all while trying to keep bond yields under control to prevent a full on bond yield collapse.

-----
It's hard for me to tell who is more likely to collapse sooner as they have different situations (albeit both are borderline crash-worthy).


Let's hear your feedback


edit update:
In thinking more about it, although I believe Japan's economy is doomed, I think Argentina's is actually worse- why?

Because Japan's interest rates arent high yet (when it breaks loose, they'll go high, and they'll have to print franticly to preserve a semi-fuctioning economy (with high inflation and interest rates, which eventually leads to hyper-inflation // very high inflation which would lead to a bond-market crash)- but Argentina seems well on its way there to a crash alrdy w 25-30% inflation

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May 02, 2014, 01:55:43 AM
 #2

Toss a coin. But both before end of 2016, perhaps as soon as end of 2015.

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May 02, 2014, 02:19:33 AM
 #3

    Either country can just choose to default on their bonds and then carry on.    Even a currency failure is not the end for an economy, they could use another countrys

This bad debt will cause anger and possibly restrict their future trading but really to say their economy will crash I think is not right as business will always carry on.   Less debt in either case makes their ongoing situation better but the problem then is can they operate alone or on unstable trading terms

The problem of Argentina is poor production I think ?   Japan lacks workers perhaps but also has to import oil and water but it is most incorrect to question Japans standing as they do own vast amounts of productive capacity home and abroad.     Any upset in Japan is more likely to trigger a failure futher down the line of trade, like an avalanche rather then themselves greatly.    Japan suffers from poor government as does Argentina but they arent close in standing otherwise, Japan especially is better off with a major failure I think it would be ironic

Japan holds a trillion in US treasury bonds ?   This is what I mean about others suffering more, Argentina will just be cut off from the world or similarly the worry would be a military type government but is possible they too would be better off with an entire change.     I'am more worried about Egypt, or hopeful they find something better soon and I think their situation is more critical.


Personally I will invest in Japan while shorting their currency in favour of my own.   Argentina any business opportunities would have to wait till the dust settles, so purely on that basis to answer your question Argentina



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TrailingComet
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May 02, 2014, 06:26:53 AM
 #4

Realistically Japan
But most likely the Argies

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May 02, 2014, 08:32:42 AM
 #5

Neither one.
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May 02, 2014, 11:04:59 AM
 #6

Realistically Japan
But most likely the Argies


What do you mean by saying "realistically japan but most likely Argies"? You say they both will crash but more likely Argentina? I don't think that any of them will crash but I can't predict what will be in 50 or 100 years.
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May 02, 2014, 11:23:10 AM
 #7

The UK


 
 
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May 02, 2014, 11:27:07 AM
 #8

I'd say Argentina without a doubt. I think Japan has a much bigger export industry and it's well known Argentina isn't doing to well with it's currency and banking system.

The UK

LOL
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May 02, 2014, 12:08:09 PM
 #9

It depends on what crashing means. Argentina has already defaulted on their debts recently and many people hoard USD instead of Argentinan pesos. Inflation in probably higher than official data shows. Politics is broken since decades ago. To me that seems like they have already crashed.
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May 02, 2014, 12:31:46 PM
 #10

more like argentina, japan have some good tech stuff



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May 02, 2014, 03:51:28 PM
 #11

Japan will last longer than argentina, one is struggling with development (arg.)
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May 02, 2014, 04:12:28 PM
 #12

Japan has just raised their sales tax. Economist expect their economy will slow down somewhat, but nowhere near crashing. They have fairly strong exports, so they have devalued yen a fair bit to help the industries. I think Japan is doing well to combat their debt.
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May 02, 2014, 06:17:47 PM
 #13

Japan Debt to GDP has passed the point of no return.

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May 02, 2014, 07:52:02 PM
 #14

Both, they're just as bad, I don't think that they'll collapse at the same time, we can't predict exactly when that will happen because the market just doesn't work that way but both of them have heavy borrowing and both of them are inflating their currencies like crazy so I know they'll both collapse at some point.

So long as countries stick with paper money and borrow more than they make, they are going to fail, countries are just like businesses whether politicians want to admit it or not.
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May 02, 2014, 09:04:01 PM
 #15

The problem of Argentina is poor production I think ?

Argentina is suffering from national government corruption which siphons off and destroys the productivity of the country. And they are rapidly moving towards the inability to pay their foreign debt and will default. Their FOREX reserves are dwindling. Default is likely 2015 or 2016.

Japan's export surplus has turned into a huge and accelerating trade deficit. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is stratospheric at something like 500% of GDP when all forms of debt are factored in (public and private). Default is likely 2015 or 2016.

Japans lacks youth and the youth have stopped making babies.

France may blow up before Japan.

We have a huge global Apocalypse of cascading defaults into an abyss of economic collapse into Mad max ahead.

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May 02, 2014, 10:22:50 PM
 #16

these people will use bitcoin as currency, or emigrate abroad  Smiley
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May 02, 2014, 10:25:07 PM
 #17

In addition to the financial problems, Japan has the nuclear mess at Fukushima which is a long way from being cleared up. This may be their downfall.
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May 03, 2014, 01:47:57 AM
 #18

In thinking more about it, although I believe Japan's economy is doomed, I think Argentina's is actually worse- why?

Because Japan's interest rates arent high yet (when it breaks loose, they'll go high, and they'll have to print franticly to preserve a semi-fuctioning economy (with high inflation and interest rates, which eventually leads to hyper-inflation // very high inflation which would lead to a bond-market crash)- but Argentina seems well on its way there to a crash alrdy w 25-30% inflation

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May 03, 2014, 01:48:34 AM
 #19

Argentina
Japan's citizens own most of their debt
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May 03, 2014, 04:29:02 AM
 #20

Japan Debt to GDP has passed the point of no return.

The Japanese public debt is around 175% of the GDP. Not much higher from that of the US (120% of the GDP). And when compared to Argentina, the inflation rates are much lower. So I don't think that the Japanese economy will crash soon.

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