How lucky Is my brother

[rikkie]

Congratulations if it's true. GOod luck.

[Crossbow376]

I feel like thats nearly impossible... similar to getting struck by lightening.

Getting stuck by lightening has much much better chance than finding a BTC block solo on a laptop

Assuming difficulty stays at current level forever (extremely unlikely), it would take on average 12100 years to get a block with 90MH/s.
No idea how long you need to wait to get a lightning struck lol.

[sgk]

I feel like thats nearly impossible... similar to getting struck by lightening.

Getting stuck by lightening has much much better chance than finding a BTC block solo on a laptop

Assuming difficulty stays at current level forever (extremely unlikely), it would take on average 12100 years to get a block with 90MH/s.
No idea how long you need to wait to get a lightning struck lol.

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000
The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000

http://news.nationalgeographic.co.in/news/2004/06/0623_040623_lightningfacts.html

[Crossbow376]

I feel like thats nearly impossible... similar to getting struck by lightening.

Getting stuck by lightening has much much better chance than finding a BTC block solo on a laptop

Assuming difficulty stays at current level forever (extremely unlikely), it would take on average 12100 years to get a block with 90MH/s.
No idea how long you need to wait to get a lightning struck lol.

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000
The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000

http://news.nationalgeographic.co.in/news/2004/06/0623_040623_lightningfacts.html

Thanks for the link and fun facts.
I am really surprised to see the odds of being struck in lifetime is a lot higher than I have thought.

[sgk]

I feel like thats nearly impossible... similar to getting struck by lightening.

Getting stuck by lightening has much much better chance than finding a BTC block solo on a laptop

Assuming difficulty stays at current level forever (extremely unlikely), it would take on average 12100 years to get a block with 90MH/s.
No idea how long you need to wait to get a lightning struck lol.

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000
The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000

http://news.nationalgeographic.co.in/news/2004/06/0623_040623_lightningfacts.html

Thanks for the link and fun facts.
I am really surprised to see the odds of being struck in lifetime is a lot higher than I have thought.

So don't roam around wet trees in a forest frequently during rainy season, otherwise your family will have to brute-force your cold wallets in future

[fancyboy]

My congratulations to your brother!My congratulations to your brother! Hitting the block on laptop is very unusual. By the way, if it was your laptop you may divide this by 50% to you and 50% for him! Just kidding, but once again: my congratulations! You hit jackpot

[shorena]

At around 90MH/s, your luck (chances) is about 1 in 4.4 Million.

Really?  I would think it to be a lot more... like 1 in 100 million or something.

Guess the brother was just lucky... or this whole topic is just a lie and has no use whatsoever.

1 in 4.4 Million sounds indeed wrong. I would like to do a proper calculation to see the chances.
Looks like binomial distribution with a x/2²⁵⁶ chance and MH repetitions per second * time in seconds mining with 1 success, which is easy to calculate if you know X. The problem I have is that X depends on the number of bits that have to be 0 and I dont know how to get them from the difficulty, since the difficulty value is usually given as an integer (e.g. 8,000,872,136)

[lapah]

If this is true, can you ask your brother to give me 1 btc. 

[Tammy Chan]

The problem I have is that X depends on the number of bits that have to be 0 and I dont know how to get them from the difficulty, since the difficulty value is usually given as an integer (e.g. 8,000,872,136)

You can find the target on blockexplorer.
https://blockexplorer.com/q/hextarget

[shorena]

-snip-
You can find the target on blockexplorer.
https://blockexplorer.com/q/hextarget

Thats great! Thanks.

The following contains several errors, see the hint from Flashman and my correction below.

So the current target in hex is 0x0000000000000000896C00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
which is 1.0001001011011₂×2¹⁹¹ according to wolframalpha

Since the hash has to be lower than the target, the first 256-192* = 64 bits must be 0

So the basic chance to get a valid hash is 2⁶⁴/2²⁵⁶ = 1/2¹⁹² if we consider all hashes the be equal likely and equally distributed.

Next step is to get the number of tries OPs brother (OPB) had with the given hardware and time.

-snip-nividia 660M geforce gtx-snip-
-snip-1 day

It was posted that this would be 90MH/s

At around 90MH/s -snip-

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison
Does not list a GTX 660 M, but it lists an overclocked GT650M with 27.4 MHash/s
According to NVidia the GTX660M has the same amount of cores as the GT650M and slightly less clock speed, so I think 27.4 MH/s is more likely than 90MH/s. To be honest 27.4 is probably to high, but we will go with that.

So 27.4 MH/s * 24*60*60 = 2,367,360 Hashes total in 24 hours

The rest is basic binomial distribution. So we have an experiment with a 1/2¹⁹² chance of success and repeat that ~ 2.3 million times, while 1 is successfull. Since these numbers are considered small (chance) and large (number of times repeated) we can use a poisson approximation and dont have to do all the annoying binoms.

L (Lambda) = 1/2¹⁹² * 3,367,360 ~ 3.77*10^-52
k = 1 (1 Block)

Thus the chance for OPB to hash a block with the given hardware and time is:

((3.77*10^-52)¹ * e^-3.77*10-52)/1!
= ((3.77*10^-52) * e^-3.77*10-52)
= approx 3.77 * 10^-52

Thats (if we round a lot) 1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

-snip-your luck (chances) is about 1 in 4.4 Million.

Not even close

-snip-
something more in the range of 600 million to one
-snip-

Nope

How does it compare to the odds of winning the powerball lottery?

(1 in 175 million)

Winning the powerball lottery is 100 Tredecillion more likely.

Yeah, I have no comparisson for that either.

Disclaimer, even though I was very carefull with every caluclation and my sources I might have made mistakes.

* Added another bit since its an estimate anyway and target > 1₂*2¹⁹¹

tl;dr math magic reveals OP's brother had a chance of

1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
or 1 in 100 Sexdecillion

Cant argue with that numbername

[batmanbad]

so summary is this thread shouldnt exist because it didnt happen.

[monim1]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

Getting 25 bitcoin is quite difficult. If your brother really got that much bitcoin, i have to say that he hit Lottery.

[boumalo]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

Getting 25 bitcoin is quite difficult. If your brother really got that much bitcoin, i have to say that he hit Lottery.

Getting less than 25bitcoins when you solo mine a block is impossible

Did you mean that having 25btc is difficult? You just need 10k$

[Flashman]

-snip-
You can find the target on blockexplorer.
https://blockexplorer.com/q/hextarget

Thats great! Thanks.

So the current target in hex is 0x0000000000000000896C00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
which is 1.0001001011011₂×2¹⁹¹ according to wolframalpha

Since the hash has to be lower than the target, the first 256-192* = 64 bits must be 0

So the basic chance to get a valid hash is 2⁶⁴/2²⁵⁶ = 1/2¹⁹² if we consider all hashes the be equal likely and equally distributed.

Next step is to get the number of tries OPs brother (OPB) had with the given hardware and time.

-snip-nividia 660M geforce gtx-snip-
-snip-1 day

It was posted that this would be 90MH/s

At around 90MH/s -snip-

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison
Does not list a GTX 660 M, but it lists an overclocked GT650M with 27.4 MHash/s
According to NVidia the GTX660M has the same amount of cores as the GT650M and slightly less clock speed, so I think 27.4 MH/s is more likely than 90MH/s. To be honest 27.4 is probably to high, but we will go with that.

So 27.4 MH/s * 24*60*60 = 2,367,360 Hashes total in 24 hours

The rest is basic binomial distribution. So we have an experiment with a 1/2¹⁹² chance of success and repeat that ~ 2.3 million times, while 1 is successfull. Since these numbers are considered small (chance) and large (number of times repeated) we can use a poisson approximation and dont have to do all the annoying binoms.

L (Lambda) = 1/2¹⁹² * 3,367,360 ~ 3.77*10^-52
k = 1 (1 Block)

Thus the chance for OPB to hash a block with the given hardware and time is:

((3.77*10^-52)¹ * e^-3.77*10-52)/1!
= ((3.77*10^-52) * e^-3.77*10-52)
= approx 3.77 * 10^-52

Thats (if we round a lot) 1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

-snip-your luck (chances) is about 1 in 4.4 Million.

Not even close

-snip-
something more in the range of 600 million to one
-snip-

Nope

How does it compare to the odds of winning the powerball lottery?

(1 in 175 million)

Winning the powerball lottery is 100 Tredecillion more likely.

Yeah, I have no comparisson for that either.

Disclaimer, even though I was very carefull with every caluclation and my sources I might have made mistakes.

* Added another bit since its an estimate anyway and target > 1₂*2¹⁹¹

tl;dr math magic reveals OP's brother had a chance of

1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
or 1 in 100 Sexdecillion

Cant argue with that numbername

I think you just "proved" that it's still millions to one against the entire network of 60 petahash or so finding a block... yet it happens 144 times a day...

You've definitely got some bad math or suppositions in there. I think you've done it on a per second basis. To late for math brain functions tonight though.

[shorena]

-snip-
I think you just "proved" that it's still millions to one against the entire network of 60 petahash or so finding a block... yet it happens 144 times a day...

You've definitely got some bad math or suppositions in there. I think you've done it on a per second basis. To late for math brain functions tonight though.

Hmm yeah now that you mention it, the number is way to big in comparison with the entire network.

Basic chance would be 1/2⁶⁴ not 1/1¹⁹² (approx 5.42*10^-20) because you have to get the 64 bits correct and the others can be anything.
Also the 2,367,360 would be MHash/day, so 2,482,356,879,360 repetitions.
Thus lambda is approx 1.35*10^-7

board breaks the wolframalpha links

1.35 in 10,000,000 or 1 in 7,407,407 which is pretty close to mufa's guess.

Lets do a sanity check for this with the entire network and 10 minutes.

68 PH/s = 6.8*10¹⁶ hash/s * 600 seconds = 4.08*10¹⁹ hash/10 minutes
Basic chance remains, as well as 1 Block success.

Lambda is approx 2.21

Thus

wolframalpha

The chance is ~ 24% which looks about right.

Thanks for the hint Flashman

[hanguyen]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

I would say that its either
1) You are trying to troll us
2) Your brother is extremely extremely lucky especially when you stated its a nvidia gpu.

1) You are trying to troll us

[nabeton]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

I would say that its either
1) You are trying to troll us
2) Your brother is extremely extremely lucky especially when you stated its a nvidia gpu.

1) You are trying to troll us

yes, he tried, but now he's back in his cave  or disguised and still among us .... beware

[Nagato4]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

I would say that its either
1) You are trying to troll us
2) Your brother is extremely extremely lucky especially when you stated its a nvidia gpu.

1) You are trying to troll us

yes, he tried, but now he's back in his cave  or disguised and still among us .... beware

It seems he registered his account just to make the thread and troll us...

[jkljb]

-snip-
tl;dr math magic reveals OP's brother had a chance of

1 in 10⁵³ or 1 in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
or 1 in 100 Sexdecillion

Cant argue with that numbername

You can enter to Guinness Book.

[loewen.brad]

My brother was mining on my laptop bitcoin. I have a nividia 660M geforce gtx grapics card. He solo mined for 1 day and found a block. If I am correct a block is 25 bitcoin, and the market value of bitcoin is about 450.

So did my Brother hit the lottery in bitcoin  ?

proof? or it never happened.

still no proof? Smells scammy to me.

It "smells scammy?" Tell me... What about this rings of a scam to you? So far, he's not trying to sell you anything and he isn't trying to get hold of your btc. No attempt to defraud anyone has been made. All he's done so far is made the claim that his brother solo'd a block on a laptop in one day. Without proof, a rather far fetched claim, yes. But not a scam. I'm tired of people just throwing around the "scammer" tag so lightly and using it interchangeably with "liar" and "troll."