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Author Topic: Sato-Dice gambler edge?  (Read 624 times)
gcseybolt (OP)
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May 03, 2014, 09:26:39 PM
 #1

So I was on Sato-Dice.com and noticed that one of the bets has an expected value that actually favors the gambler if the numbers are correct.  The payout is definitely correct, but not sure if the win % is what's shown. Does anyone know how to check this?
Anyways, the number is 91% win with a 1.10x payout

Expected value of 100 bets:
91 wins = 91*1.1 = 100.1
9 losses = 9*0 = 0
So on average 100 bets of 1 would have an expected return of 100.1
Way better than the normal 1% house edge.  If you look at other betting sites like just-dice or doge-dice, etc, 91% is usually a payout of closer to 1.088.
Unfortunately I couldn't find a Sato-Dice bot to check if it actually works out in the long run.  If anyone finds one let me know though, it'd be much appreciated.

Also if I'm a total idiot and my math is all wrong let me know too.

Also it's a pretty small site still if you haven't seen it yet: https://sato-dice.com//?referal=221073.
emsjvh
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May 03, 2014, 10:16:21 PM
 #2

LOL NICE REFERRAL LINK BRO
gcseybolt (OP)
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May 04, 2014, 01:10:01 AM
 #3

Way to completely ignore the rest of the post, very helpful. I care less about the referral than seeing if I'm correct about having a edge over the house.  I'll remove it if that will make you feel better, but did you even bother to check if I was right? Also an update, 93% is better.  It's 93% and 1.08 which gives 100.44 return on 100 bets.
Nobitcoin
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May 04, 2014, 02:11:04 AM
 #4

Let you know when I'm broke eh?
gcseybolt (OP)
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May 04, 2014, 02:16:40 AM
 #5

Jesus people I didn't ask you to go bet your house and report back.  Literally the only thing I asked was if people could check if my math was right.  I didn't realize throwing up a referral link instead of a regular one, made it an automatic scam.  Still nobody has commented on whether or not the math is right by the way.
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May 04, 2014, 03:48:58 AM
 #6

waiting to buy bitcoin @ right price so to play @sato-dice
Qwiner
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May 05, 2014, 11:24:12 AM
 #7

There is no such thing as gambler edge buddy. Only house edge.

Although your betting strategy my work in the short run. But over the long run. U are going to lose all your winnings + deposits. Because over the long run, the gambling website seems to know your betting system, based on your betting strategy, YOUR bank roll will disappear only after 3 or 4 losing streaks.

U can try your strategy by participating in the tournament contest currently running on the site. Or @ fairproof.com

███████████████████████████████████████████████████
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     ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            █     ███           ███   ▄▄▄          █          ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
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▄██▀                   ███ ███     ███     ███      ███       ███ ███       ███          ███
███                   ███   ███     ███   ███       ███      ███   ███      ███        ▄▄███
███                  ███     ███     ███ ███        ███     ███     ███     ██████████████▀
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▌  .
vit1988
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May 05, 2014, 08:48:44 PM
 #8

conspiracy: their verification system doesn't proof that lucky numbers are uniformly distributed. maybe it's a trap to make people bet on 91%?

nice try, allmost got me Grin

Josepht
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May 05, 2014, 08:50:50 PM
 #9

This site has a 0% house edge. Impossible.
gcseybolt (OP)
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May 05, 2014, 08:59:31 PM
 #10

There is no such thing as gambler edge buddy. Only house edge.

Although your betting strategy my work in the short run. But over the long run. U are going to lose all your winnings + deposits. Because over the long run, the gambling website seems to know your betting system, based on your betting strategy, YOUR bank roll will disappear only after 3 or 4 losing streaks.

U can try your strategy by participating in the tournament contest currently running on the site. Or @ fairproof.com


That doesn't make sense.  The house only has an edge because the odds are usually in their favor, but if the numbers the website shows are real, they odds are actually in the gamblers favor.  If you could bet 1 dollar that a fair die would get 1-4 and not 5 or 6 and win $1 getting it correctly obviously you would have the edge. This is the same thing just not as extreme.  So if you bet small enough that the odds of going bust are next to nothing wouldn't you come out ahead in the long run?
 
gcseybolt (OP)
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May 05, 2014, 09:17:10 PM
 #11

conspiracy: their verification system doesn't proof that lucky numbers are uniformly distributed. maybe it's a trap to make people bet on 91%?

nice try, allmost got me Grin

Okay, yeah that's what I was worried about, but didn't really know how to check if the proof they showed was real or not.  It's also not just 91% though, I went through all the numbers and a lot of them have the gambler coming out ahead.  93% shows a 1.0044 expected payout, but the 1% house edge that the site says it should have would be 0.99 so I'm not sure what's right.  The payout is correct so if I'm wrong they must be not using a fair number generator like the other gambling sites.
a1choi
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May 06, 2014, 04:10:28 AM
 #12

So I was on Sato-Dice.com and noticed that one of the bets has an expected value that actually favors the gambler if the numbers are correct.  The payout is definitely correct, but not sure if the win % is what's shown. Does anyone know how to check this?
Anyways, the number is 91% win with a 1.10x payout

Expected value of 100 bets:
91 wins = 91*1.1 = 100.1
9 losses = 9*0 = 0
So on average 100 bets of 1 would have an expected return of 100.1
Way better than the normal 1% house edge.  If you look at other betting sites like just-dice or doge-dice, etc, 91% is usually a payout of closer to 1.088.
Unfortunately I couldn't find a Sato-Dice bot to check if it actually works out in the long run.  If anyone finds one let me know though, it'd be much appreciated.

Also if I'm a total idiot and my math is all wrong let me know too.

Also it's a pretty small site still if you haven't seen it yet: https://sato-dice.com//?referal=221073.

it is positive EV

91*0.1 + 9*(-1) = 0.1% in favor of the gambler.  do they allow you to withdraw instantly?

i'd be extremely skeptical of any gambling website that has +EV bets..  red flags going off saying potential scam to me.  trying to lure in deposits then run away with the money
a1choi
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May 06, 2014, 04:21:09 AM
 #13

also, this game does not seem Provably fair.

Has SCAM written all over it.  i'd advise everyone to stay away.
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