Monero Economy

[LucyLovesCrypto]

I will be formalizing the proposal for the fixing of blockreward at year end of year 10 of Monero emission; a couple of charts are below:


A is the current projection.
B is the fixed subsidy projection.

As you can see from the images, there is only slight inflation at this time.
Final block subsidy: 0.117061151915
Inflation starting at year 11: 0.335774683775%
Inflation starting at year 20: 0.325925311615%

Code:

import math

M = math.pow(2, 64) - 1
total_supply = 0
YEARS = 20

f = open('monero_calculator.txt', 'w')
f.write('Year\tCoin supply\tInflation\n')

# Unlimited subsidy decreases (ByteCoin code)
for i in range (1,YEARS+1):
    beginning_supply = total_supply

    for j in range (1,525601): # 525600 blocks/year
        block_subsidy = (M - total_supply) / math.pow(2, 20) # Atomic
        total_supply += block_subsidy

    inflation = 0
    if beginning_supply == 0:
        pass # Infinite for year 1
    else:
        inflation = total_supply / beginning_supply

    total_supply_in_monero = total_supply / math.pow(10, 12) # Moneros
    inflation_in_percent = (inflation * 100) - 100
    f.write(str(i) + '\t' + str(total_supply_in_monero) + '\t' + str(inflation_in_percent) + '\n')

f.write('\n')

total_supply = 0
last_block_subsidy = 0 # Usde to get the block_subsidy for year end of year 10

# Subsidy fixing after 10 years
for i in range (1,YEARS+1):
    beginning_supply = total_supply

    for j in range (1,525601): # 525600 blocks/year
        if (i <= 10):
            block_subsidy = (M - total_supply) / math.pow(2, 20) # Atomic
            last_block_subsidy = block_subsidy
        else:
            block_subsidy = last_block_subsidy
        total_supply += block_subsidy

    inflation = 0
    if beginning_supply == 0:
        pass # Infinite for year 1
    else:
        inflation = total_supply / beginning_supply

    total_supply_in_monero = total_supply / math.pow(10, 12) # Moneros
    inflation_in_percent = (inflation * 100) - 100
    f.write(str(i) + '\t' + str(total_supply_in_monero) + '\t' + str(inflation_in_percent) + '\n')

f.write('\n')
f.write("Final block subsidy at year 10 end: " + str(last_block_subsidy / math.pow(10, 12)))
f.close()

Thank you for the charts!

Inflation has been pretty high so far but seems to be slowing down now...

[XMRpromotions]

https://twitter.com/XMRpromotions/status/626327581382414337

Please follow and retweet if you can help. Once we have enough followers we will target merchants, exchanges, services, etc that would we  believe benefit from accepting Monero. Feel free to make suggestions about who we should approach.

I have a few ideas of where to start (I already mentioned BTC38) and have already started to reach out to a few services that seem like a good match for Monero.

[americanpegasus]

I'm posting to tag this thread so I can more easily follow it. 
 
That being said, transitioning to an economy is the Tier II goal of any new speculative currency. 
 
Speculation drives the initial adoption, but we need goods and services that are being bought and sold specifically with Monero in order for this to catch up to to bitcoin.  We can go a long way without that (look at Litecoin), but in the bigger picture we absolutely need a functioning economy (and the future promise of one) to elevate us from pump n' dump status. 
 
To give you some perspective, bitoin has only recently begun to make firm steps into this second tier of an asset, and they still aren't all the way there.

[rpietila]

I would say that the most promising initiative to make XMR stand out from the masses of shitcoins, is Crypto Kingdom. We are just now transitioning to a browser-playable game, which is also a social media platform and an interactive wallet-cum-app store.

If you can see what it is becoming in just a few months or 1-2 years at maximum, you would do well to buy a stake of the project. It is now appraised to $275,000 in our internal CKG market. Compared to any game company that has a product in the final testing, that is cheap.

Buy CKG (shares of Crypto Kingdom) as long as they are cheap before the release of the V.4: Reconstruction. It is easy, just contact saddambitcoin with your XMR ready.

[dreamspark]

I would say that the most promising initiative to make XMR stand out from the masses of shitcoins, is Crypto Kingdom. We are just now transitioning to a browser-playable game, which is also a social media platform and an interactive wallet-cum-app store.

If you can see what it is becoming in just a few months or 1-2 years at maximum, you would do well to buy a stake of the project. It is now appraised to $275,000 in our internal CKG market. Compared to any game company that has a product in the final testing, that is cheap.

Buy CKG (shares of Crypto Kingdom) as long as they are cheap before the release of the V.4: Reconstruction. It is easy, just contact saddambitcoin with your XMR ready.

Interesting development Risto. Do you not run the risk of falling foul of any SEC rules selling shares of a project? Not saying you are as I have no idea how the law works across the pond but I know that's been an issue for other projects. I'll certainly be having a look into it and considering an investment myself. I'm sure the project is well on it's way to a fully browser released game with all the testing that's been happening

[binaryFate]

I would say that the most promising initiative to make XMR stand out from the masses of shitcoins, is Crypto Kingdom. We are just now transitioning to a browser-playable game, which is also a social media platform and an interactive wallet-cum-app store.

If you can see what it is becoming in just a few months or 1-2 years at maximum, you would do well to buy a stake of the project. It is now appraised to $275,000 in our internal CKG market. Compared to any game company that has a product in the final testing, that is cheap.

Buy CKG (shares of Crypto Kingdom) as long as they are cheap before the release of the V.4: Reconstruction. It is easy, just contact saddambitcoin with your XMR ready.

Interesting development Risto. Do you not run the risk of falling foul of any SEC rules selling shares of a project? Not saying you are as I have no idea how the law works across the pond but I know that's been an issue for other projects. I'll certainly be having a look into it and considering an investment myself. I'm sure the project is well on it's way to a fully browser released game with all the testing that's been happening

He's not selling anything as there is no prior ownership to start with. There is no company or entity selling any kind of shares, it's a different model. It's not only crowd-funded, but also "crowd-owned" right from the start.

[dewdeded]

Here some thoughts on crypto currency mass adoption and related calculations, predictions and outlooks.   

Bitcoins sales pitch is getting more and more porous.

1.) An service/network with traction and hype doesn't need a long history ("chain") or super trust-worthy genius developers.
Look at Skype, Whatsapps, Facebooks, Twitters or YouTubes user growth history.

2.) The ultimate compliment to any project is when the general public, or the vast majority, begins to use one of its brand names to define an entire product category. The concepts of "blockchain" and "cryptocurrency" are now finally getting noticed & accepted and are mostly seen as positive and offering chances in main stream (press).
But the goal/hidden agenda/plausibility that Bitcoin as brand, would have been able to become synonymous with these concepts (leading to market dominance & an forever unbeatable image as "orginal") didn't became reality. BTC won't be the next Kleenex, Tupperware, Xerox, Walkmen or Ziploc. Besides all it's head start.

---> 1.) and 2.) combined & looking around in the current crypto currency space leads me to think, that there is a good chance today, that non of today's crypto currency projects will become massadopted.
Most likely a today unknown new marketing-driven coin/project, will take this role and position.
Everyone agree's we are in an tech and ecosystem development stage, which is right. There is little real world usage, adoption and benefits today.
The general spoken and unspoken consensus in the scene, that "the coin(s) with the best tech, best devs and best UX" will rightfully get adopted by the massmarket and rule the world.
With the changed environment and todays expierences this may turn out to be untrue.

From my POV there is a solid chance, that the next crypto currency market leader and first with real mass adoption, will be a non-tech-driven project.
Looking at Internet Startup history and giving basic considerations, I think it's safe to say:

an new marketing-driven and aggressive competing crypto currency, run by business people, build on the open source tech we develop today, is way more likely to become the leading and mass-adopted crypto currency, than any of our small, often self-centric, sometimes overengineering & often bad organized altcoin projects today


--> so, all these infighting, wars & trolling, jealousy between todays crypto currency projects is even more stupid and wrong, than it used to be (it has zero effect on the decision and hurts the crypto scene in general and both project fighting parties)

--> so, most of these price & economy development considerations, calculations & projections are worthless, unrealistic, most not adding real value to the project and waste alot of time,
they won't matter when a project (the own one or an competing) get the traction and hype that its user growth and adoption level explodes (be it either due to luck, randomness or hard work)

--> we have to: acknowlede this difficult situation, be realistic about it and don't allow this non-perfect developments to demotivate us or give up our ideals
and then everybody, who support's Monero should go ahead and think about how to react to it and how to help Monero, especially given these uncertainties, now or maybe later in future in the important time short before mass adoption break-through

The resulting questions:
- What does this mean for Moneros global strategy/timeline? How can we be proactive about it?
- What is the best way to help Monero in this enviroment?
- What can we learn from Bitcoins stagnation/situation, ...?
- What is a new and realistic scenario for crypto currencys future? Where does Monero stand in this?
- If the next 2 or 3 years are still an mainly tech development phase? How can we still motivate and wisely use non-coding Monero supporters during this time?
- How can the crucial right moment to build traction for Monero, to at least try to go very big, be identified?

[americanpegasus]

Here some thoughts on crypto currency mass adoption and related calculations, predictions and outlooks.   

  
[...]

--> we have to: acknowlede this difficult situation, be realistic about it and don't allow this non-perfect developments to demotivate us or give up our ideals
and then everybody, who support's Monero should go ahead and think about how to react to it and how to help Monero, especially given these uncertainties, now or maybe later in future in the important time short before mass adoption break-through
(questions: what does this mean for Moneros global strategy/timeline, what is the best way to help Monero in this enviroment, what can we learn from Bitcoins stagnation/situation, ...)

 
  
Wow, amazing and hard truths to swallow, but you are right.  
  
Sheep don't carefully evaluate the merits of each shepard before choosing one... they just do whatever the other sheep are doing.  We live in an unfortunate reality where marketing trumps innovation and technicals, and something doesn't need to be perfect... just glossy, shiny, easy, and "good enough".  I've done a lot of thinking about what causes humans to mass adopt a product and we have to look to examples like the Google search engine, the dominance of the Nintendo Wii for a generation, the rise of Michael Kors fashion brand, and Apple's own revolution.   
  
Never forget: The first iPhone couldn't even copy and paste.

[s1gs3gv]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

[dreamspark]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

If your mining and paying for power it completely depends on the rate that you are paying. If you own a botnet or a sys admin then as close to 0 sats as you can get really.

[s1gs3gv]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

If your mining and paying for power it completely depends on the rate that you are paying. If you own a botnet or a sys admin then as close to 0 sats as you can get really.

So lets say you are mining legitimately with hardware you have amortized already and you are paying USD 0.13 a KWH.

[oblox]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

If your mining and paying for power it completely depends on the rate that you are paying. If you own a botnet or a sys admin then as close to 0 sats as you can get really.

So lets say you are mining legitimately with hardware you have amortized already and you are paying USD 0.13 a KWH.

Um... you just answered your own question as you have all the variables to plug into a calculator.

[s1gs3gv]

Um... you just answered your own question as you have all the variables to plug into a calculator.

Um … no I don't have all the variables, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to ask a 'monero economy' expert like you oblox. As a matter of conjecture, I don't think you even know, you are just being a smart ass.

~LOL~

[smooth]

---> 1.) and 2.) combined & looking around in the current crypto currency space leads me to think, that there is a good chance today, that non of today's crypto currency projects will become massadopted.
Most likely a today unknown new marketing-driven coin/project, will take this role and position.

Or just none at all.

Where is it pre-ordained that the concept of cryptocurrencies will succeed at all as a mass market phenomenon and therefore there must be a particular coin/project that does? Because venture capital is putting a billion dollars or so into it? Tell that to pets.com and webvan.

The nature of new technologies is you try stuff, sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.

Good post. Even if one does succeed, you make good points that current projects (at least the well known ones like Bitcoin) are becoming increasingly unlikely to be the ones that do it.

[s1gs3gv]

Even if one does succeed, you make good points that current projects (at least the well known ones like Bitcoin) are becoming increasingly unlikely to be the ones that do it.

In your view what are the contributing factors to potential 'success' and what are their relative importance ?

[e-coinomist]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

So lets say you are mining legitimately with hardware you have amortized already and you are paying USD 0.13 a KWH.

http://minergate.com/calculator/cryptonote

[oblox]

Um... you just answered your own question as you have all the variables to plug into a calculator.

Um … no I don't have all the variables, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to ask a 'monero economy' expert like you oblox. As a matter of conjecture, I don't think you even know, you are just being a smart ass.

~LOL~

You have your electric rate and no cost to the hardware... only you know what you have for hardware and what it hashes. Use a fucking calculator. This generation disappoints me.

[s1gs3gv]

Um... you just answered your own question as you have all the variables to plug into a calculator.

Um … no I don't have all the variables, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to ask a 'monero economy' expert like you oblox. As a matter of conjecture, I don't think you even know, you are just being a smart ass.

~LOL~

You have your electric rate and no cost to the hardware... only you know what you have for hardware and what it hashes. Use a fucking calculator. This generation disappoints me.

Another invalid assumption from another cretin on a monero list. I don't have hardware and I don't know what it hashes.
Kids will be kids - all mouth, rude attitudes, ghetto vocabulary. Oblox, I hope you aren't typical of the 'high minded' supporters I've heard about in the monero community because if you are XMR has nowhere to go but down and out.

~LOL~

So monero is selling for less than it costs to mine it unless you are stealing electricity or run a botnet huh ? Monero 'economy'

[s1gs3gv]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

So lets say you are mining legitimately with hardware you have amortized already and you are paying USD 0.13 a KWH.

http://minergate.com/calculator/cryptonote

Thanks e-coinomist. I've seen the calculators. I did a bit of research on typical GPU performance on monero using claymore and it doesn't look great. Is XMR mined primarily by botnet owners or people who steal electricity or get it very cheap ? Is mining subsidized by fanbois who believe that a superior feature set and technology have a major impact on market adoption ?

[smooth]

What is the average cost of production in satoshi of 1 XMR ?

So lets say you are mining legitimately with hardware you have amortized already and you are paying USD 0.13 a KWH.

http://minergate.com/calculator/cryptonote

Thanks e-coinomist. I've seen the calculators. I did a bit of research on typical GPU performance on monero using claymore and it doesn't look great.

Could very well be. 0.13/kwh is fairly high by global standards. NVIDIA are said to be a bit more efficient than AMD though.

Is XMR mined primarily by botnet owners or people who steal electricity or get it very cheap ? Is mining subsidized by fanbois who believe that a superior feature set and technology have any impact on market success ?

Both certainly exist, and there are people with cheaper or much cheaper electricity than yours, and people with free or nearly free electricity who aren't stealing it.  

Mining is a brutally competitive commodity business where it is tough to make a profit. Always has been (except for a short time during some pumps), always will be.