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Author Topic: How long this correction will take?  (Read 4815 times)
Vandroiy
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January 17, 2012, 06:21:32 PM
 #21

The problem isn't the idea of leverage. The problem is that it is used excessively in the most unfitting situations. This will go wrong eventually, and that will help repair the problem by punishing overconfident trading, weakening those who do it and strengthening conservative speculators.
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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 06:26:59 PM
 #22

The problem isn't the idea of leverage. The problem is that it is used excessively in the most unfitting situations. This will go wrong eventually, and that will help repair the problem by punishing overconfident trading, weakening those who do it and strengthening conservative speculators.

Yes, that coupled with it all being on mtgox, this is the problem.  It dosent buffer the market at all in my eyes, until there is compitition with mtgox on a scale(volume) that is near mtgox..


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January 17, 2012, 06:27:18 PM
 #23

currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels

if you all leverage in one direction and there 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk.

Ok, your not far off from my train of thought..

But consider this..

It delays the inevitable, and causes wild swings when the dam finally breaks, thus liquidating positions for these momentary wild swings..

It dosent so much stem the tide, but band-aids it up with a very very thin wall temporarily Then! you have no btc or USD availbility in the appropriate direction.

Now if he had the over head, the market will move where it wants to go. Good or bad..

Its like market procrastination so to speak.

And on top of that the mtgox traders moving to bitcoinica makes this worse..

The best thing Zhou can do is be his own exchange with leveraging, to compete with Mtgox, once they have it too, THIS will be helpful in the ways you are talking..  2 exchanges with margins.

i may not know much about trading, i may not be well versed with trading lingvo
but looking at the following graph i'm seeing a very healthy growth.  with bitcoinica or without there is no more btc and usd than there currently exist and inevitable can't be stopped either way Smiley so i see the delays as a good amortization mechanism so we won't spiral out of control

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January 17, 2012, 06:31:41 PM
 #24

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets?

The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will.

I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

I never said that Bitcoinica was hurting the community as a whole.

The market did crash in June, after a rally.

You have nothing to say to me because it seems you don't have much to say in general.

Yes, Im quiet as a mouse in church!  Huh

I wasn't referring to your posting frequency, just the quality and depth of what you post.

Yes, Im very shallow in my thoughts, dont mind me, I have little to no thought at all.. Smiley

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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 06:41:23 PM
 #25

Temthaw, how about you follow all my posts and grade them, then I will feel the nostalgia of 15 years ago when I was in university, and I will strive to keep you happy.

Im much more of a "lead a horse to water" type then spelling it out and drowning the horse.

People need to reach their own conclusions...  Smiley  





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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 06:59:26 PM
 #26

To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And you don't need to lead this horse to any water, thank you.

Congrads! You've discovered we BOTH have opinions, you'll fit right in here.

And Im sure you have enough water, never thought otherwise..

Welcome aboard.. Smiley




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January 17, 2012, 07:07:03 PM
 #27


When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day.  This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!".  The expected happened: he ran out of reserves.  I hope he learned his lesson.

As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging.  And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community.
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January 17, 2012, 07:35:11 PM
 #28


When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day.  This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!".  The expected happened: he ran out of reserves.  I hope he learned his lesson.

As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging.  And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community.

Im not saying leveraging is the problem, Im saying that ALL the leveraging is done on bitcoinica, which is essentially, when it gets down to it, goes onto mtgox, when bitcoinica gets to a point that it needs to change its position, this causes the wild spikes, which is made worse by the excessive leveraging like you said..  No offense to Zhou, but you guys realize hes making the most when these momentary spikes causes liquidation. (Zhoutounged)

Mtgox price being the defacto standard in the community is the problem, and bitcoinica is just adding to the volatility of mtgox. We need another exchange with high volume, bitcoinica has the potential to do this, I hope they do this someday soon.

Then and only then will we have the starting of a buffer for the market.

In other words, the excessive leveraging on bitcoinica that all transposes down  to mtgox is making things worse.

Edit - I should note also, I have never been liquidated, and actually have made 22 dollars from bitcoinica in the few times I've used it So Im not biased because I've been hit hard ..


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January 17, 2012, 07:53:21 PM
 #29

Q: how long will this correction take?
A: i don't know for sure Cheesy (whow does?) but i think it is likely to take another dip down to 6, before it finally will start to go up again.
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January 17, 2012, 08:10:28 PM
 #30


When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day.  This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!".  The expected happened: he ran out of reserves.  I hope he learned his lesson.

As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging.  And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community.

Im not saying leveraging is the problem, Im saying that ALL the leveraging is done on bitcoinica, which is essentially, when it gets down to it, goes onto mtgox, when bitcoinica gets to a point that it needs to change its position, this causes the wild spikes, which is made worse by the excessive leveraging like you said..  No offense to Zhou, but you guys realize hes making the most when these momentary spikes causes liquidation. (Zhoutounged)

Mtgox price being the defacto standard in the community is the problem, and bitcoinica is just adding to the volatility of mtgox. We need another exchange with high volume, bitcoinica has the potential to do this, I hope they do this someday soon.

Then and only then will we have the starting of a buffer for the market.

In other words, the excessive leveraging on bitcoinica that all transposes down  to mtgox is making things worse.

Edit - I should note also, I have never been liquidated, and actually have made 22 dollars from bitcoinica in the few times I've used it So Im not biased because I've been hit hard ..



Bitcoinica has added an exchange -- Gox needs to step it up and implement margin trading to balance things.

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January 17, 2012, 08:19:54 PM
 #31

To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.

FTFY

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 08:39:31 PM
 #32


When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Bitcoinica was usually ~10% of MtGox volume until Jan 14th, the day Zhou offered a no-fee day.  This was like a banker yelling, "Free money, one day only, come and get it!".  The expected happened: he ran out of reserves.  I hope he learned his lesson.

As others have pointed out, the problem isn't leveraging, it's excessive leveraging.  And by offering 5:1 and 10:1 leveraging, Zhou does a disservice to his community.

Im not saying leveraging is the problem, Im saying that ALL the leveraging is done on bitcoinica, which is essentially, when it gets down to it, goes onto mtgox, when bitcoinica gets to a point that it needs to change its position, this causes the wild spikes, which is made worse by the excessive leveraging like you said..  No offense to Zhou, but you guys realize hes making the most when these momentary spikes causes liquidation. (Zhoutounged)

Mtgox price being the defacto standard in the community is the problem, and bitcoinica is just adding to the volatility of mtgox. We need another exchange with high volume, bitcoinica has the potential to do this, I hope they do this someday soon.

Then and only then will we have the starting of a buffer for the market.

In other words, the excessive leveraging on bitcoinica that all transposes down  to mtgox is making things worse.

Edit - I should note also, I have never been liquidated, and actually have made 22 dollars from bitcoinica in the few times I've used it So Im not biased because I've been hit hard ..



Bitcoinica has added an exchange -- Gox needs to step it up and implement margin trading to balance things.

Not the exchange type I was thinking of.  I meant the trading exchange, with depth chart, and so forth.. Smiley

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January 17, 2012, 09:09:02 PM
 #33

To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.

FTFY

No, but its kind of surprising how much shit I'm getting in this thread, considering what I posted this morning turned out to be entirely correct.

What, that's it's going to crash?  I'd hardly call that little dip a crash.  The fact is you're being uppity and it's annoying.  If you were referring to another prediction (maybe one with some actual targets), please quote it instead of referring to "what I posted".

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 09:14:41 PM
 #34

To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.

FTFY

No, but its kind of surprising how much shit I'm getting in this thread, considering what I posted this morning turned out to be entirely correct.

What, that's it's going to crash?  I'd hardly call that little dip a crash.  The fact is you're being uppity and it's annoying.  If you were referring to another prediction (maybe one with some actual targets), please quote it instead of referring to "what I posted".

He's new, cut him some slack, plus he grades on a curve... Smiley

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January 17, 2012, 09:18:47 PM
 #35

Looks like there is * at the buy button at bitcoinica again - so maybe this was not the bottom yet.
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January 17, 2012, 09:21:03 PM
 #36

To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.

FTFY

No, but its kind of surprising how much shit I'm getting in this thread, considering what I posted this morning turned out to be entirely correct.

What, that's it's going to crash?  I'd hardly call that little dip a crash.  The fact is you're being uppity and it's annoying.  If you were referring to another prediction (maybe one with some actual targets), please quote it instead of referring to "what I posted".

What this is really about is me being new. I've been on enough internet message boards to spot it. The new guy is the troll and the old guard are always right. You revealed yourself when you used the word 'uppity'.

Reread this thread. teflone responded to what I first posted with sarcasm. I responded in kind. We went back and forth. But I'm uppity? Where is the distinction?


Ohhhhh that was sarcasm, I think we all missed that... sorry brother..  My bad...


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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 10:51:49 PM
 #37

now that exactly what I have been talking about happened...


Any questions as to why bitcoinica is not doing us any good ?

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January 17, 2012, 10:54:13 PM
 #38

now that exactly what I have been talking about happened...


Any questions as to why bitcoinica is not doing us any good ?



it's very good =) keep using it ))
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January 17, 2012, 10:54:24 PM
 #39

now that exactly what I have been talking about happened...


Any questions as to why bitcoinica is not doing us any good ?

Why do you think that swing was bad? People who had buy orders at 4.6 disagree Smiley

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January 17, 2012, 10:57:18 PM
 #40

now that exactly what I have been talking about happened...


Any questions as to why bitcoinica is not doing us any good ?

Why do you think that swing was bad? People who had buy orders at 4.6 disagree Smiley

Hey rape away, I just want to see some stability.

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