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Author Topic: How long this correction will take?  (Read 4820 times)
zby
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January 17, 2012, 09:48:46 AM
 #1

I know many expect a break out (to 9 or to 4) just around the corner - but in the past after monthly scale rallies there were also monthly scale corrections and I would not expect one of them instead of a quick down or up spike.  For example see the first monthly scale wave in October-November 2010:

After the about month long rally there was about month long correction.  If someone subscribes to the Elliot Waves theory - this was the first sub wave of the first main (yearly) wave - we are now in the first subwave of the second main wave so this one can be quite similar.  But even if we look at the other monthly scale waves - they too had corrections that took about the same amount of time.
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January 17, 2012, 02:40:14 PM
 #2

it's funny, that graph looks peculiarly like the chicken entrails i was looking at yesterday...

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
Vandroiy
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January 17, 2012, 02:52:51 PM
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This was when Gox opened and a few geeks threw coins around. The average WEEKLY volume was something like 40k USD. This is looking at noise. Even if I were to believe in whatever wave theory, which I don't, I would not use this data as a reference.

Personally, my current best guess would be a change of attitude and a few hurt speculators some time soon, resulting in maybe one or two months of correction. But this is not something I can bet on, we might as well see a huge chaos unleashed due to the excessive margin trading. I wasn't expecting this, so I'm nut sure I got all the scenarios right on this one.

I can just say that this time, enough factors to allow a sudden hard crash have accumulated, so I strongly recommend to not go all-in! Especially not on margin! Better safe than sorry when one isn't sure what's going on. This goes both ways, look at how quickly the order book changes these days.
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January 17, 2012, 03:31:42 PM
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I strongly recommend to not go all-in! Especially not on margin! Better safe than sorry when one isn't sure what's going on.

Agreed.

It's a hard lesson to learn. Sad
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January 17, 2012, 04:07:50 PM
 #5

I've been catching spikes in small batches, but I agree... the market is acting funny today and that asterisk is still semi-constant. Stay out!

What? Are you kidding me? Bitcoinica is on maximum leveraged long positions now, with bids for only roughly 50k BTC in the vicinity?

I take that as an attempt to make me hit the "sell all remaining" button. This can't be right, or they somehow adjust maximum leverage to the order book -- which is a wild wager in itself due to manipulation possibilities.
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January 17, 2012, 04:27:33 PM
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I've been catching spikes in small batches, but I agree... the market is acting funny today and that asterisk is still semi-constant. Stay out!

What? Are you kidding me? Bitcoinica is on maximum leveraged long positions now, with bids for only roughly 50k BTC in the vicinity?

I take that as an attempt to make me hit the "sell all remaining" button. This can't be right, or they somehow adjust maximum leverage to the order book -- which is a wild wager in itself due to manipulation possibilities.

so what are you implying? 
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January 17, 2012, 04:39:29 PM
 #7

Temthaw: well, it would be unacceptable to not allow liquidating shorts, that does not necessarily mean anything. And even if they're below maximum now, that can still be way too much.

so what are you implying?  

That margin traders might have to execute liquidation sells the size of the order book bids down to below 6. Double that up over stop losses or panicking people, and you might get a flash crash.

I think we're above 10% probability for a sudden strike below 4 or something on that level of insanity. Such a configuration should normally never happen. Or I'm just not understanding something here.
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January 17, 2012, 05:27:06 PM
 #8

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

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January 17, 2012, 05:37:05 PM
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.
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January 17, 2012, 05:45:21 PM
 #10

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

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January 17, 2012, 05:46:38 PM
 #11

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?
teflone
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January 17, 2012, 05:48:11 PM
 #12

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets?

The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will.

I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole, yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people will help, I have little to say to you.

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teflone
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January 17, 2012, 05:50:12 PM
 #13

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!

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proudhon
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January 17, 2012, 05:53:19 PM
 #14

Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!

I see your point.  I guess I'm referring to the correction from the peak.
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January 17, 2012, 05:54:59 PM
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets?

The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will.

I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

I never said that Bitcoinica was hurting the community as a whole.

The market did crash in June, after a rally.

You have nothing to say to me because it seems you don't have much to say in general.

Yes, Im quiet as a mouse in church!  Huh

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Serge
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January 17, 2012, 05:55:17 PM
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I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

i disagree strongly, i came to conclusion that bitcoinica provides fair balance and stability which is more important to healthy growth then wild roller-coasters, it also offers opportunity for new comers to enter at decent rates.   and it's not bitcoinica as much as the players on that boat.  thing is there is no yet much of new funds
the slower you go - further you get
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January 17, 2012, 06:01:57 PM
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I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

i disagree strongly, i came to conclusion that bitcoinica provides fair balance and stability which is more important to healthy growth then wild roller-coasters, it also offers opportunity for new comers to enter at decent rates.   and it's not bitcoinica as much as the players on that boat.  thing is there is no yet much of new funds
slower you go - further you get

When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Dont get me wrong, I love the "idea" of Bitcoinica, and I have immense respect for Zhou, hes a hard worker, and a professional.

Personally I would not have an issue with bitcoinica if it was its OWN exchange.. not parle to mtgox.


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January 17, 2012, 06:08:48 PM
 #18

currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels and more importantly STABLE rates

if you all leverage in one direction and there are 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk of losing just the same as you multiply your gains
zby
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January 17, 2012, 06:10:19 PM
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!

Correction of 1/3 of the value - in current scale that would be correction to 5.
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January 17, 2012, 06:15:46 PM
 #20

currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels

if you all leverage in one direction and there 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk.

Ok, your not far off from my train of thought..

But consider this..

It delays the inevitable, and causes wild swings when the dam finally breaks, thus liquidating positions for these momentary wild swings..

It dosent so much stem the tide, but band-aids it up with a very very thin wall temporarily Then! you have no btc or USD availbility in the appropriate direction.

Now if he had the over head, the market will move where it wants to go. Good or bad..

Its like market procrastination so to speak.

And on top of that the mtgox traders moving to bitcoinica makes this worse..

The best thing Zhou can do is be his own exchange with leveraging, to compete with Mtgox, once they have it too, THIS will be helpful in the ways you are talking..  2 exchanges with margins.

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