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Author Topic: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators  (Read 5575 times)
StewartJ
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January 23, 2012, 05:21:20 PM
 #21

One more link with explanation of PSAR and how to use it, very helpful:

http://www.stockwatch.com.au/articles/technical-analysis/psar.aspx
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kjj
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January 23, 2012, 05:37:08 PM
 #22

Indicators stop indicating once they become known.

The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known."  This is a common myth about technical analysis.  In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness.

One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work.

I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it.  If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more.  Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here.
That doesn't make any sense.

If everyone used it, and everyone received a "Buy" signal, then everyone would buy, and the price would shoot up.

Similarly, if everyone used it, and everyone received a "Sell" signal, then everyone would sell, and the price would drop like a rock.

The only fools would be the ones NOT using it.  That's what ineed is talking about when he says it is self-perpetuating.

Heh.  Try it then.

Also, Buy and Sell are opposite views of the same thing.  You can't have one without the other.

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SgtSpike
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January 23, 2012, 05:47:00 PM
 #23

Indicators stop indicating once they become known.

The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known."  This is a common myth about technical analysis.  In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness.

One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work.

I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it.  If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more.  Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here.
That doesn't make any sense.

If everyone used it, and everyone received a "Buy" signal, then everyone would buy, and the price would shoot up.

Similarly, if everyone used it, and everyone received a "Sell" signal, then everyone would sell, and the price would drop like a rock.

The only fools would be the ones NOT using it.  That's what ineed is talking about when he says it is self-perpetuating.

Heh.  Try it then.

Also, Buy and Sell are opposite views of the same thing.  You can't have one without the other.
It would only work if a large number of people followed it, which, AFAIK, we don't have a large number of people following this particular regression.
YoYa
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January 23, 2012, 08:31:05 PM
 #24

PSAR seems a good idea until you see it whiplashing either side of the value. As just mentioned good for strong trends, but go sideways and it's not worth a damn. I suppose it would be possible to try to use it to indicate exit points.....but I'm just not all that keen on it.
Bro
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January 24, 2012, 08:09:52 PM
 #25

indicators don't indicate, it's all psychological

PSAR = rabbit foot

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January 24, 2012, 10:33:00 PM
 #26


5 BITCOIN RAFFLE GIVEAWAY
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gurg2.o
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January 25, 2012, 01:00:34 AM
 #27


but seriously take it all

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Oldminer
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January 25, 2012, 01:49:20 AM
 #28

SELL SELL SELL!

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Goomboo
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January 25, 2012, 02:07:00 AM
 #29

Hmm, I thought I'd stop by and say a word about PSAR.

-If you're using it as a trading system, here's the 10 year backtested performance in the EURUSD on daily charts
-Use it as a stop, not a trading signal (it was never design to be an entry signal)!





Sargasm
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January 25, 2012, 07:28:26 PM
 #30

It seems to be saying... 'wait'.
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 07:38:55 PM
 #31

It seems to be saying... 'wait'.

The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff...
Sargasm
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January 25, 2012, 07:43:28 PM
 #32

It seems to be saying... 'wait'.

The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff...

Apparently they had a little velocity.

On another note, last night I was looking at my holdings thinking "This long position looks very vulnerable... buy hey the bid wall looks strong enough"

You see the one skidding towards the edge?  That's me.  I'm half man half bear half lemming.
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 08:00:35 PM
 #33

It seems to be saying... 'wait'.

The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff...

Apparently they had a little velocity.

On another note, last night I was looking at my holdings thinking "This long position looks very vulnerable... buy hey the bid wall looks strong enough"

You see the one skidding towards the edge?  That's me.  I'm half man half bear half lemming.

Interesting, have been thinking "vulnerable" since the Jan 18 crash.

Last night I sold some silver on the "Goods" Forum for payment via BTC.  I usually immediately convert BTC proceeds to USD, but for some reason
I forgot about it. And lo and behold, the Smack-Down Witch releases the flying monkeys this morning.
SkRRJyTC
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February 23, 2012, 08:46:23 PM
 #34



SkRRJyTC
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March 15, 2012, 11:50:20 PM
 #35


Dont fight the holy grail guys...
dopamine
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March 21, 2012, 03:49:48 PM
 #36

Well if this is the holy grail look out below...

Bitcoinica still has not given me 50% of my claim of 600 BTC
INTERSANGO can go down with bitcoinica for abandoning customers
Alberto Armandi is a SCAMMER
SkRRJyTC
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April 02, 2012, 05:30:35 PM
 #37



And the holy grail switches...
SkRRJyTC
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April 02, 2012, 05:38:41 PM
 #38

i see your psar and i show you my stochastic he just left 90

custom stochastic?  I cant find a stochastic oscillator that has touched 90 today.
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