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Author Topic: WTF !!!!!  (Read 1995 times)
antares
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January 18, 2012, 11:50:25 PM
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well I'm actually quite surprised on the reactions over here. I mean, yes, I made profits in ranges > 1k USD, and yes, there was a bit of luck with it, however, I didnt realize that people on bitcoinica did never imagine that speculation meant possible loss too.

If you read the forums today, it just seems like the possibility to lose was something totally new to them...
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January 18, 2012, 11:57:00 PM
 #22

well I'm actually quite surprised on the reactions over here. I mean, yes, I made profits in ranges > 1k USD, and yes, there was a bit of luck with it, however, I didnt realize that people on bitcoinica did never imagine that speculation meant possible loss too.

If you read the forums today, it just seems like the possibility to lose was something totally new to them...

If you think about it, this explains the behaviour. Since they vastly underestimated the probability of loss, they didn't think it strange to trade on gigantic leverage. Nobody who thinks an own mistake likely or sees uncertainties about the market would do heavy margin trading on a crazy market like this one.

Myself, I wouldn't claim to trade safely enough to go all-in, let alone risk even more than that! I don't know what kind of track record one would need to qualify for 1:3 or higher margin trading on Bitcoin, but I doubt such a person is present. Maybe such a person doesn't even exist.
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January 19, 2012, 12:05:55 AM
 #23

well I'm actually quite surprised on the reactions over here. I mean, yes, I made profits in ranges > 1k USD, and yes, there was a bit of luck with it, however, I didnt realize that people on bitcoinica did never imagine that speculation meant possible loss too.

If you read the forums today, it just seems like the possibility to lose was something totally new to them...

If you think about it, this explains the behaviour. Since they vastly underestimated the probability of loss, they didn't think it strange to trade on gigantic leverage. Nobody who thinks an own mistake likely or sees uncertainties about the market would do heavy margin trading on a crazy market like this one.

Myself, I wouldn't claim to trade safely enough to go all-in, let alone risk even more than that! I don't know what kind of track record one would need to qualify for 1:3 or higher margin trading on Bitcoin, but I doubt such a person is present. Maybe such a person doesn't even exist.

This is why I believe that the current volatility has actually strengthened the market.  It will make the leveraged traders think twice before plunging in, reducing volatility (zhou's move also helps).

(BFL)^2 < 0
antoineph
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January 19, 2012, 12:23:06 AM
 #24

well I'm actually quite surprised on the reactions over here. I mean, yes, I made profits in ranges > 1k USD, and yes, there was a bit of luck with it, however, I didnt realize that people on bitcoinica did never imagine that speculation meant possible loss too.

If you read the forums today, it just seems like the possibility to lose was something totally new to them...

If you think about it, this explains the behaviour. Since they vastly underestimated the probability of loss, they didn't think it strange to trade on gigantic leverage. Nobody who thinks an own mistake likely or sees uncertainties about the market would do heavy margin trading on a crazy market like this one.

Myself, I wouldn't claim to trade safely enough to go all-in, let alone risk even more than that! I don't know what kind of track record one would need to qualify for 1:3 or higher margin trading on Bitcoin, but I doubt such a person is present. Maybe such a person doesn't even exist.

This is why I believe that the current volatility has actually strengthened the market.  It will make the leveraged traders think twice before plunging in, reducing volatility (zhou's move also helps).

It is true that in this environment, every gigantic blunder reduces the likelihood of another one.
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