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Author Topic: How does bitcoin price compare to one year ago?  (Read 1086 times)
dree12
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January 18, 2012, 02:34:28 AM
 #1

As it is the most meaningful market, Mt. Gox USD is used for this analysis. Any reference to $ or dollar refers to the USD. Dree12 owns some bitcoins. This is not professional advise. Reading this analysis comes at the reader's own risk.
TL;DR: We're over 10x the price 364 days ago, but this isn't going to last.

(The above chart's % indicates the value price / old price, not price / old price - 1. Due to an error, actual values are based on 364-day ranges.)
Labelled: Today, high of 2012, low of 2012, beginning of 2012.
The new year's rally on the 5th and 6th of January 2012 show a massive jump from the slowly rising December values of yearly ROI, reaching a high of 2200% on 2011-01-08. Interestingly, the low on this chart was hit 5 days prior on January 3rd, even though the change on 2011-01-04 was negative. On 2011-01-11, the ROI spiked to 2200% again after two days of lower ROIs due to the higher prices 365 days prior. Since then, the ROI has been decreasing rapidly, and the recent crash brought it down to under 1600%.

The record low on Mt. Gox for this index is barely over 500%. It is likely we will challenge this record in February. The reason is the early February rally of 2011: the price more than doubled in the month of January. With the market as it is right now, we will not be able to double the price to $12 on 2012-02-01. If prices reach $10 by then, the ROI would have been 1300%. Moreover, by 2011-02-09 the price crossed $1, and even optimistically the 2012 counterpart would be hovering in the $10-$15 range at most, putting the ROI at 800%-1300%.

During March 2011, prices corrected and fell below parity with the USD. They then rallied tremendously in April. By 2011-05-08, prices reached $4. Although forecasts this far out are impossible, it is reasonable to assume that barring another bubble, prices would not be over $45 on 2012-05-01. This puts the ROI at most at 1000%, and it is more likely to be less than 500%.

Before mid-May 2011, the prices doubled to $8. Barring another bubble, the 2012 mid-May prices would not be higher than $60. Therefore, the ROI here will unfortunately be stuck in the low positives (<700%); there even exists the possibility of it becoming negatives at this point. On 2011-06-05, the price superrallied to almost $15 dollars, doubling the price again. Again barring another bubble, 2012 prices are likely to be lower than $80 at this point, moving ROI less than 400%.

As we approach June, I will take a closer look at this index. Although we are advertising yearly growth rates of up to 2200% now, it is likely that these growth rates will dip below 0% in a couple months.
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ineededausername
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January 18, 2012, 02:37:29 AM
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Please tell me... how is this analysis?!  You can't explain why exactly a price is overbought or oversold based on prices a year ago...

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bittenbob
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January 18, 2012, 02:41:11 AM
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Better yet go back 3 years. Oh wait that's right there were no bitcoins 3 years ago so it would be infinity. A better comparison would be to look at a stock that went from a penny stock at IPO to a blue chip.
dree12
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January 18, 2012, 02:43:11 AM
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Please tell me... how is this analysis?!  You can't explain why exactly a price is overbought or oversold based on prices a year ago...
The introduction, is rather tougne-in-cheek (a form of sarcasm, really). I never stated this chart was useful in any way.
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January 18, 2012, 02:44:17 AM
 #5

Please tell me... how is this analysis?!  You can't explain why exactly a price is overbought or oversold based on prices a year ago...
The introduction, is rather tougne-in-cheek (a form of sarcasm, really). I never stated this chart was useful in any way.

haha, don't know how serious the OP was. Tongue

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beckspace
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January 18, 2012, 02:46:20 AM
 #6

This graph... is there a historical "All-time", perhaps?

You guys have really come up with somethin'
bittenbob
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January 18, 2012, 02:48:07 AM
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This graph... is there a historical "All-time", perhaps?

Yeah we are at about 25% of that. I hope you werent serious when you said that your chart is the reason why you think bitcoin is going to go down in price.
dree12
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January 18, 2012, 02:49:31 AM
 #8

This graph... is there a historical "All-time", perhaps?
Yes, if you want it. As bittenbob pointed out, the chart I posted is already almost 25% of this:

Log scale, because the beginning is absolutely ridiculous.
Edit: I realized I messes up the axes.
chsados
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January 18, 2012, 03:03:39 AM
 #9

A better comparison would be to look at a stock that went from a penny stock at IPO to a blue chip.

that would be some interesting graphs to look at.  what are some historical penny stocks that did this, any during the .com bubble?
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January 18, 2012, 03:08:10 AM
 #10

As we approach June, I will take a closer look at this index. Although we are advertising yearly growth rates of up to 2200% now, it is likely that these growth rates will dip below 0% in a couple months.

According to your "unusual" graph, did you mean bellow 100%? Right? If in July the price is $5, the index would be ~30% (used to be 1000%). I'm curious to see all the data.

You guys have really come up with somethin'
dree12
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January 18, 2012, 03:30:21 AM
 #11

As we approach June, I will take a closer look at this index. Although we are advertising yearly growth rates of up to 2200% now, it is likely that these growth rates will dip below 0% in a couple months.

According to your "unusual" graph, did you mean bellow 100%? Right? If in July the price is $5, the index would be ~30% (used to be 1000%). I'm curious to see all the data.
In the OP I referred to ROI, or rate of increase. In the graph, the numbers are raw and should have 100% subtracted to get the ROI. Here is the (raw) data:
Code:
2011-07-23 27561.93%
2011-07-24 27530.78%
2011-07-25 16186.13%
2011-07-26 17285.89%
2011-07-27 18473.91%
2011-07-28 17498.03%
2011-07-29 26613.09%
2011-07-30 21455.92%
2011-07-31 24708.10%
2011-08-01 26335.64%
2011-08-02 23283.21%
2011-08-03 19983.33%
2011-08-04 15621.56%
2011-08-05 15279.11%
2011-08-06 15529.82%
2011-08-07 9553.65%
2011-08-08 12829.62%
2011-08-09 12899.85%
2011-08-10 16550.00%
2011-08-11 17408.77%
2011-08-12 15412.26%
2011-08-13 15085.41%
2011-08-14 17071.19%
2011-08-15 17626.93%
2011-08-16 15603.93%
2011-08-17 15562.99%
2011-08-18 16236.64%
2011-08-19 15371.44%
2011-08-20 17962.02%
2011-08-21 16994.03%
2011-08-22 17224.63%
2011-08-23 16533.59%
2011-08-24 15528.59%
2011-08-25 15856.76%
2011-08-26 14378.29%
2011-08-27 12387.62%
2011-08-28 12837.05%
2011-08-29 13642.59%
2011-08-30 13717.59%
2011-08-31 13425.14%
2011-09-01 12553.56%
2011-09-02 12728.13%
2011-09-03 13192.31%
2011-09-04 13129.33%
2011-09-05 12678.09%
2011-09-06 11614.65%
2011-09-07 11338.00%
2011-09-08 11325.12%
2011-09-09 10199.68%
2011-09-10 8166.23%
2011-09-11 7552.93%
2011-09-12 9420.05%
2011-09-13 9766.88%
2011-09-14 9408.20%
2011-09-15 8963.42%
2011-09-16 7820.14%
2011-09-17 7699.35%
2011-09-18 7392.93%
2011-09-19 8355.28%
2011-09-20 8679.56%
2011-09-21 9759.51%
2011-09-22 9190.40%
2011-09-23 8668.68%
2011-09-24 9298.54%
2011-09-25 8864.41%
2011-09-26 8400.80%
2011-09-27 7741.69%
2011-09-28 7746.13%
2011-09-29 7572.78%
2011-09-30 7570.28%
2011-10-01 8163.81%
2011-10-02 8014.17%
2011-10-03 8008.08%
2011-10-04 7977.19%
2011-10-05 7912.92%
2011-10-06 7766.26%
2011-10-07 7548.51%
2011-10-08 6794.95%
2011-10-09 6426.92%
2011-10-10 6613.93%
2011-10-11 6588.42%
2011-10-12 6301.95%
2011-10-13 6507.23%
2011-10-14 5939.03%
2011-10-15 4491.72%
2011-10-16 3996.10%
2011-10-17 3586.02%
2011-10-18 2594.72%
2011-10-19 2449.01%
2011-10-20 2061.90%
2011-10-21 2201.97%
2011-10-22 2347.62%
2011-10-23 3027.52%
2011-10-24 3007.84%
2011-10-25 2385.35%
2011-10-26 2755.67%
2011-10-27 2701.03%
2011-10-28 2741.13%
2011-10-29 3012.19%
2011-10-30 3294.44%
2011-10-31 2743.23%
2011-11-01 2360.61%
2011-11-02 1995.81%
2011-11-03 1633.77%
2011-11-04 1720.91%
2011-11-05 1536.32%
2011-11-06 1393.22%
2011-11-07 1437.45%
2011-11-08 1437.99%
2011-11-09 1466.05%
2011-11-10 1427.71%
2011-11-11 1134.75%
2011-11-12 1084.62%
2011-11-13 677.18%
2011-11-14 781.43%
2011-11-15 813.58%
2011-11-16 1009.03%
2011-11-17 966.81%
2011-11-18 908.52%
2011-11-19 664.35%
2011-11-20 695.60%
2011-11-21 688.42%
2011-11-22 755.33%
2011-11-23 944.35%
2011-11-24 914.39%
2011-11-25 808.18%
2011-11-26 795.04%
2011-11-27 772.77%
2011-11-28 796.08%
2011-11-29 785.72%
2011-11-30 871.97%
2011-12-01 949.54%
2011-12-02 992.86%
2011-12-03 995.32%
2011-12-04 887.28%
2011-12-05 947.44%
2011-12-06 1152.63%
2011-12-07 1355.33%
2011-12-08 1214.29%
2011-12-09 1068.63%
2011-12-10 1083.03%
2011-12-11 1387.80%
2011-12-12 1611.11%
2011-12-13 1436.76%
2011-12-14 1294.81%
2011-12-15 1219.10%
2011-12-16 1500.00%
2011-12-17 1468.63%
2011-12-18 1303.55%
2011-12-19 1351.36%
2011-12-20 1431.19%
2011-12-21 1501.20%
2011-12-22 1534.39%
2011-12-23 1456.29%
2011-12-24 1544.49%
2011-12-25 1534.85%
2011-12-26 1659.68%
2011-12-27 1404.87%
2011-12-28 1595.82%
2011-12-29 1574.21%
2011-12-30 1566.40%
2011-12-31 1612.90%
2012-01-01 1789.56%
2012-01-02 1887.80%
2012-01-03 1868.60%
2012-01-04 1636.94%
2012-01-05 1757.94%
2012-01-06 2215.87%
2012-01-07 2132.31%
2012-01-08 2170.00%
2012-01-09 2271.43%
2012-01-10 2044.31%
2012-01-11 2027.45%
2012-01-12 2207.69%
2012-01-13 2181.88%
2012-01-14 1903.13%
2012-01-15 1990.43%
2012-01-16 2067.73%
2012-01-17 1946.16%
2012-01-18 1614.68%
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