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zby
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January 18, 2012, 08:27:21 AM
 #1

What I remember - correct me if I am wrong. Dates in January 2012:

6th - The rally is stopped at 7.2 in a curiously even pattern.  A small dip follows.

8th/9th - Rally is again stopped at 7.2. Asterisk at bitcoinica 'buy' button looks like the culprit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.0).  Another dip and subsequent rallies all stop when * appears at bitcoinica buy button.

11th - 16th - Sideways pattern, rallies always stop below 7.2. Asterisk hypothesis confirmed.

13th - S3052 sends a very positive weekly report but it did not overcome the bitcoinica asterisk

15th - 17th - Again price drops down slightly
 
about 9pm UTC the drops start to be quite regular

after 10pm most probably bitcoinica liquidations start cascading (there are little bids left on MtGox for these prices - so the liquidations move the price down and cause other liquidations), price drops to 4.65

price goes back to 6.4 and then oscillates in a triangle- someone starts buying

when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115)

the price again goes down to 5.6 with huge volume and again is stopped by a buy out plus bid walls around 5.4

the price again oscilates in a down leaning triangle



It is quite evident now - that:

1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged

2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot



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bb113
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January 18, 2012, 08:32:21 AM
 #2

I think you should include better than expected "Good Wife" episode and resulting indicators of increased interest (wikipedia page count, etc) and bullish sentiment. This action may have (I think likely) been purposefully timed to coincide with that.
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January 18, 2012, 08:49:35 AM
 #3

It's tough to say.  To me, it feels like some kind of reverse-psychology rally.
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January 18, 2012, 09:05:33 AM
 #4

You forgot

3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 18, 2012, 09:09:41 AM
 #5

Bruce Wagner said on his pre 'Good Wife' show (when his guests were trying to be cautious about speculative behaviour) that people should not wait to buy bitcoin, they should jump in and buy it before the Mr Bitcoin episode because...
bitcoin prices will *EXPLODE*.   (it did explode - just not the way he meant!)

Not that I really think what he says is that important - but it'd be nice to think this anti-rally is partly punishment for him being an over-the-top bimbo-bull.


@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
zby
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January 18, 2012, 09:41:21 AM
 #6

You forgot

3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated.

Added in:

when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115)
notme
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January 18, 2012, 09:45:02 AM
 #7

You forgot

3. Many of the shorts were overlevereged as well and got counter-liquidated.

Added in:

when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115)

Fantastic, thanks.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 18, 2012, 10:19:01 AM
 #8

...an over-the-top bimbo-bull.

rotfl




Edit: made it a bit more bimbo!

One off NP-Hard.
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January 18, 2012, 10:36:03 AM
 #9

Also, now this:



Spekulatius
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January 19, 2012, 04:38:59 PM
 #10

It is quite evident now - that:

1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged

2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot

I think we may also add, that if Bitcoinica in reality is accountable for ~80% of mtgox' volume:

3. The asterisks caused the rally to stop at 7.2


The question (apart from many others) is now: When will the asterisks return?

(7.20 $, 23th of December? Wink)
StewartJ
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January 19, 2012, 06:02:03 PM
 #11

What I remember - correct me if I am wrong. Dates in January 2012:

6th - The rally is stopped at 7.2 in a curiously even pattern.  A small dip follows.

8th/9th - Rally is again stopped at 7.2. Asterisk at bitcoinica 'buy' button looks like the culprit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.0).  Another dip and subsequent rallies all stop when * appears at bitcoinica buy button.

11th - 16th - Sideways pattern, rallies always stop below 7.2. Asterisk hypothesis confirmed.

13th - S3052 sends a very positive weekly report but it did not overcome the bitcoinica asterisk

15th - 17th - Again price drops down slightly
 
about 9pm UTC the drops start to be quite regular

after 10pm most probably bitcoinica liquidations start cascading (there are little bids left on MtGox for these prices - so the liquidations move the price down and cause other liquidations), price drops to 4.65

price goes back to 6.4 and then oscillates in a triangle- someone starts buying

when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115)

the price again goes down to 5.6 with huge volume and again is stopped by a buy out plus bid walls around 5.4

the price again oscilates in a down leaning triangle



It is quite evident now - that:

1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged

2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot



I posted a 2-week chart on this thread alluding to that bubble:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60131
molecular
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January 25, 2012, 05:30:15 PM
 #12


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Spekulatius
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January 25, 2012, 09:14:43 PM
 #13

lol

+1 Zhoucoin
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January 25, 2012, 09:51:59 PM
 #14

asterix.. is gone

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