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Author Topic: Thinking about buying more coins  (Read 3186 times)
casascius
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January 18, 2012, 07:29:12 PM
 #21


http://ecdsa.org/stats.html

<Post explaining how I think the sleeping coins from 2009 are a risk>


Hmmmmm.  


Those of you worried about all of the bitcoins mined at difficulty 1 need to take a look at this graph.

http://ecdsa.org/stats.html

<Post explaining why I feel the sleeping coins are probably insignificant, irrelevant, not a risk>

If someone drops 50k to 100k coins they will get snapped up.

Check back in a week and see if you are still saying boo hoo. I'm holding mine.

Smiley

That seemed true on January 6, and also seemed pretty true yesterday since that appears to be what happened.

I am not trying to say "sell your bitcoins", I am simply trying to say "don't buy now" (unless you are betting on someone coming and swooping them up in bulk very soon!).  This is a thread about "thinking about buying more coins", presumably that means right now, since it's a new thread.  I'm thinking about it too, but not doing it, least not today! =)  I still maintain that Bitcoins are great to hold long.  I just believe there will be better days to buy.

Relevant to that: the sleeping coins from 2009 don't worry me for my personal trading - but they ARE a legitimate reason why we should be skeptical about someone coming along and trotting off with $millions worth of BTC out of the blue.

Does it appear that I have lost a degree of confidence between January 6 and today because of observing it?  You bet.  One notable thing that happened (as I recall it) the day before yesterday was a stacking of a ton of new asks at the 7-8 mark that I don't believe were there before.  I do not know where those came from, nor do I have any way to know.  It's hard not to worry about sleeping coins when you are seeing asks come out of left field.  Left me to conclude, "OK, somebody with a lot of BTC wants to sell, or at the least, really wants to see the price go down in order to buy more".  So if what you find interesting is I've magically gone from a bull to not quite so... well ya got me.  You're right.  It's hard not to, with the smell of fresh beef permeating the air around here.




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January 18, 2012, 07:33:31 PM
 #22

I have $100 on the slow boat to dwolla, will increase my position about 40%

I'm postulating a test of uptrend support near 5 in two days...give or take

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January 18, 2012, 07:44:08 PM
 #23

I have $100 on the slow boat to dwolla, will increase my position about 40%

I'm postulating a test of uptrend support near 5 in two days...give or take

We're on the same page. Am waiting 48 hours for support baseline to develop.
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January 18, 2012, 07:57:21 PM
 #24

Analysis based on the MtGox orderbook is worthless. 310k coins traded in 24hr and the price is sitting at a point that looked 40k coins away 24hr ago.

MtGox order book does not represent all of the MtGox demand, MtGox demand doesn't represent all formal market demand and formal markets don't represent all fiat based demand, and fiat demand is not the only demand for coins.

There are billions of people, millions who have heard of bitcoin maybe once and thousands who have figured it out. Demand is both strong and an insanely small fraction of it's potential.

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January 18, 2012, 08:01:48 PM
 #25

Analysis based on the MtGox orderbook is worthless. 310k coins traded in 24hr and the price is sitting at a point that looked 40k coins away 24hr ago.

MtGox order book does not represent all of the MtGox demand, MtGox demand doesn't represent all formal market demand and formal markets don't represent all fiat based demand, and fiat demand is not the only demand for coins.

There are billions of people, millions who have heard of bitcoin maybe once and thousands who have figured it out. Demand is both strong and an insanely small fraction of it's potential.


+1

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January 18, 2012, 08:05:25 PM
 #26

Not to attack any of the posters above, but all this is bullshit.

The reason I'm commenting here on not on the other 1000 speculation threads is just because I have a lot of respect for DeathAndTaxes, casascius and others.

But

Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future. Especially short term, and especially Bitcoin.

Like 99% of the people here, I think I'm smarter than the market. I think Bitcoin's ultimate value is > $100,000, while the market values them at less than $7. So I buy, and I hold.

Any utility that Bitcoin might have right now is completely irrelevant.

My analysis suggests that in thirty years (made up number), 1% of the world (another made up number) will be Bitcoin. This simple statement is enough for me wanting to grab as many coins as I can, while not risking my well being, financial safety, etc...

Short term, it's open season, and chaos is king. Any fool with lots of $ or lots of BTC can move the market. These bubbles and crashes will keep on happening, and each one will smooth things out, take some BTC out and distribute it further.

And slowly but surely, (I believe) BTC value will rise.

No point at all speculating on short term movements. At least with any degree of seriousness.
Any one of us is really not better than the average in predicting short term movements.
The only reason I think I am smarter than the market regarding the long term 30 years price of BTC, is because I am a part of a select group of people, that have the luck to:

 - Understand cryptography at a basic level
 - Understand security at a basic level
 - Understand economy at a basic level
 - Have heard about Bitcoin, and had the luck to have a good couple of weeks to study it.

So, I am more knowledgeable than the average citizen of earth, and therefore I think I am right and they are wrong.

But short term speculators aren't betting that "Joe Shmoe, who has never heard of Bitcoin" is wrong. They're betting that other Bitcoin fanatics are wrong. Well, half of these speculators are right, at any given moment ... but half is wrong (don't get technical, you know what I mean).

I really should stop visiting the speculation forum all together, but I'm weak, and I do care about short term swings even though I'm not going to participate in the game.


Again I ask, please don't take offence by my call of "bullshit" above. I'm only human, and I could be wrong.

Best of luck,

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January 18, 2012, 08:08:02 PM
 #27

Not to attack any of the posters above, but all this is bullshit.

The reason I'm commenting here on not on the other 1000 speculation threads is just because I have a lot of respect for DeathAndTaxes, casascius and others.

But

Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future. Especially short term, and especially Bitcoin.

Like 99% of the people here, I think I'm smarter than the market. I think Bitcoin's ultimate value is > $100,000, while the market values them at less than $7. So I buy, and I hold.

Any utility that Bitcoin might have right now is completely irrelevant.

My analysis suggests that in thirty years (made up number), 1% of the world (another made up number) will be Bitcoin. This simple statement is enough for me wanting to grab as many coins as I can, while not risking my well being, financial safety, etc...

Short term, it's open season, and chaos is king. Any fool with lots of $ or lots of BTC can move the market. These bubbles and crashes will keep on happening, and each one will smooth things out, take some BTC out and distribute it further.

And slowly but surely, (I believe) BTC value will rise.

No point at all speculating on short term movements. At least with any degree of seriousness.
Any one of us is really not better than the average in predicting short term movements.
The only reason I think I am smarter than the market regarding the long term 30 years price of BTC, is because I am a part of a select group of people, that have the luck to:

 - Understand cryptography at a basic level
 - Understand security at a basic level
 - Understand economy at a basic level
 - Have heard about Bitcoin, and had the luck to have a good couple of weeks to study it.

So, I am more knowledgeable than the average citizen of earth, and therefore I think I am right and they are wrong.

But short term speculators aren't betting that "Joe Shmoe, who has never heard of Bitcoin" is wrong. They're betting that other Bitcoin fanatics are wrong. Well, half of these speculators are right, at any given moment ... but half is wrong (don't get technical, you know what I mean).

I really should stop visiting the speculation forum all together, but I'm weak, and I do care about short term swings even though I'm not going to participate in the game.


Again I ask, please don't take offence by my call of "bullshit" above. I'm only human, and I could be wrong.

Best of luck,


+1

You're not wrong. In the short term, the variables are too many, and too unknown, for ANYONE to predict what the Bitcoin market will do.
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January 18, 2012, 08:11:11 PM
 #28

yeah, you are pretty much right

we beat the average, when we do, by identifying trends and trading channels

left field crap like yesterday is endemic to this market and can break any way at any time

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January 18, 2012, 08:22:56 PM
 #29

Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future. Especially short term, and especially Bitcoin.

Like 99% of the people here, I think I'm smarter than the market. I think Bitcoin's ultimate value is > $100,000, while the market values them at less than $7. So I buy, and I hold.

Any utility that Bitcoin might have right now is completely irrelevant.

My analysis suggests that in thirty years (made up number), 1% of the world (another made up number) will be Bitcoin. This simple statement is enough for me wanting to grab as many coins as I can, while not risking my well being, financial safety, etc...

Indeed. I guess I'll repeat what I've said a number of times before: Bitcoin is a high risk investment.
I won't pretend to have any idea of just how high the risk is. I don't think it's knowable. The point is, the upside potential is tremendous but so is the risk of total loss. Therefore, as a long term investment, the sane thing to me seems to be to invest a small amount (whatever that means for you) and wait. If this thing works out, the gains will be huge, so a small investment is going to go a long way. If it just dies out, one way or another, I won't miss a small sum.

I'm talking about long timescales here. I Don't even know how long, I guess until Bitcoin is either over 1000 USD or just isn't used anymore, whichever the endgame turns out to be. Everything in between is just noise.

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January 18, 2012, 08:58:16 PM
 #30

Some smart posts finally. I think casascius is a bit off base here, from an economic perspective Bitcoin is modeled like gold and when you look at gold and its value, you do not see utility as a major factor. Gold is valued at over $1000 per ounce and the utility value of gold is only a small part of this. Large majority of its value comes from its properties as a store of value, because it is a good balancing asset for investors and regular people value it for savings.

Believe me when I say this, theoretically there does not need to be any utility value for Bitcoin to reach a stable value of over $1000. It's a good question if Bitcoin can reach such trustworthiness and appreciation based only on its properties as a secure and convenient store of value, but it's theoretically possible.

Trying to estimate the real value of bitcoins based on utility alone is futile because it's very likely that the speculative value, or investment value, will always be significantly ahead of its utility value. It's not about short term gains in the end, it's about keeping money as bitcoins for years. As savings, as long term investment.

This is why I'm not shy in recommending the people I know to buy some bitcoins, even at $7+. If they are investing an amount they are comfortable with and really understand that's it's a risky investment, I can recommend it. Here I'm talking about long term investments of course, where the goal is to keep that money as bitcoins for many years. If the goal is something else, then I might not recommend it.

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January 18, 2012, 09:22:13 PM
 #31

Some smart posts finally. I think casascius is a bit off base here, from an economic perspective Bitcoin is modeled like gold and when you look at gold and its value, you do not see utility as a major factor. Gold is valued at over $1000 per ounce and the utility value of gold is only a small part of this. Large majority of its value comes from its properties as a store of value, because it is a good balancing asset for investors and regular people value it for savings.

Believe me when I say this, theoretically there does not need to be any utility value for Bitcoin to reach a stable value of over $1000. It's a good question if Bitcoin can reach such trustworthiness and appreciation based only on its properties as a secure and convenient store of value, but it's theoretically possible.

Trying to estimate the real value of bitcoins based on utility alone is futile because it's very likely that the speculative value, or investment value, will always be significantly ahead of its utility value. It's not about short term gains in the end, it's about keeping money as bitcoins for years. As savings, as long term investment.

This is why I'm not shy in recommending the people I know to buy some bitcoins, even at $7+. If they are investing an amount they are comfortable with and really understand that's it's a risky investment, I can recommend it. Here I'm talking about long term investments of course, where the goal is to keep that money as bitcoins for many years. If the goal is something else, then I might not recommend it.

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).

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this statement is false


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January 18, 2012, 09:27:12 PM
 #32

Some smart posts finally. I think casascius is a bit off base here, from an economic perspective Bitcoin is modeled like gold and when you look at gold and its value, you do not see utility as a major factor. Gold is valued at over $1000 per ounce and the utility value of gold is only a small part of this. Large majority of its value comes from its properties as a store of value, because it is a good balancing asset for investors and regular people value it for savings.

Believe me when I say this, theoretically there does not need to be any utility value for Bitcoin to reach a stable value of over $1000. It's a good question if Bitcoin can reach such trustworthiness and appreciation based only on its properties as a secure and convenient store of value, but it's theoretically possible.

Trying to estimate the real value of bitcoins based on utility alone is futile because it's very likely that the speculative value, or investment value, will always be significantly ahead of its utility value. It's not about short term gains in the end, it's about keeping money as bitcoins for years. As savings, as long term investment.

This is why I'm not shy in recommending the people I know to buy some bitcoins, even at $7+. If they are investing an amount they are comfortable with and really understand that's it's a risky investment, I can recommend it. Here I'm talking about long term investments of course, where the goal is to keep that money as bitcoins for many years. If the goal is something else, then I might not recommend it.

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).

i am a frequenter of messageboards... you all were using +1 and i used 'this' instead because it was what i was used to. i never post a 'this' post unless it's really emphatic anyway, so i always was like +1,000,000 or 'THIS'. sorry for diluting your meme sphere Tongue

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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January 18, 2012, 09:30:16 PM
 #33

That was my 500th post btw, whee. Not a bad way to cross over to the land of heroes.

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January 18, 2012, 09:38:21 PM
 #34

That was my 500th post btw, whee. Not a bad way to cross over to the land of heroes.

Wow, I just noticed I'm at 508 (509 including this one). Sweet Smiley
Nice I just need to donate some to get that blue shine.
How much is that btw?

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January 18, 2012, 09:40:13 PM
 #35

That was my 500th post btw, whee. Not a bad way to cross over to the land of heroes.

Wow, I just noticed I'm at 508 (509 including this one). Sweet Smiley
Nice I just need to donate some to get that blue shine.
How much is that btw?

What blue shine?

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January 18, 2012, 09:44:08 PM
 #36

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).
America On-Line forever! Except that on AOL people would write "me too" under a block-quote of the entire previous post. The better educated AOL users would actually write "Me too."

Contrary to the rumor, no official AOL software provided the "Me too" button, that would produce an entire me-too-post using single click.

It is very interesting that seeming only the discussion forums in the English language have so many "me too"-posts with full block-quote.

Is English the preferred language of conformists? Or maybe people are who are multi-lingual are more likely to display their conformism in English, but more open to display non-conformism in the other languages?


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January 18, 2012, 09:49:51 PM
 #37

I am not trying to say "sell your bitcoins", I am simply trying to say "don't buy now" (...)

This is not a meaningful statement in speculation. For a speculator, the difference between not buying and selling is only where he stood before he gets the opportunity to trade.

Other than that, I think your notion is right. With the chaos we just had, pushing the price back up doesn't seem the best idea. Again, it might end the opposite way, as higher earnings for fewer people increase the speed at which funds are depleted from the market. Inflow at least doesn't look large, so unless people know something I don't, I still smell overconfidence.
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January 18, 2012, 10:12:05 PM
 #38

If you hold a million Bitcoins and want to get rich you will not crash the market time and time again that would be very unwise, like destroying your own wealth.

And the higher the price the less coins you will have to sell, so crashing the market and keeping the price down is stupid unless thats what you want.


Ofcourse I can imagine one of these early adopters need lots of money, they expected to get rich by now and took a huge loan they have to repay it.
Maybe he have been trying to postponed a sell for a year expecting price to be $50  and now really have to pay some bills no matter what.

Or someone trying to crash the market to create panic, by up as many as possible, than sell to himself to make the price rise.
But in that case, you can join that ride unless you panic to.

I would rather say, its not unwise to buy at this time if you can afford to lose your investment and if you do not panic as soon as the market crashes.












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January 18, 2012, 10:30:55 PM
 #39

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).
This.
(bitcointalk's ugly truth: Thising is the fastest way to herodom)
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January 19, 2012, 12:45:28 AM
 #40

If you hold a million Bitcoins and want to get rich you will not crash the market time and time again that would be very unwise, like destroying your own wealth.

Of course not.  You would crash it only at times when you think it's inevitably going to crash outside your control anyway, so you're not really adding any risk that's not already there.

And the higher the price the less coins you will have to sell, so crashing the market and keeping the price down is stupid unless thats what you want.

But it's smart if you think that someone else (or many other someone elses) is about to do the same thing and beat you to the punch, and you'd rather make sure you're first in line to capture the profit.

Ofcourse I can imagine one of these early adopters need lots of money, they expected to get rich by now and took a huge loan they have to repay it.
Maybe he have been trying to postponed a sell for a year expecting price to be $50  and now really have to pay some bills no matter what.

One-in-the-hand, two-in-the-bush logic also applies.  Someone who has worked at a regular job all his life is unexpectedly faced with the following decision: become a millionaire today for sure, or possibly become a multi-millionaire some time much later.  Many people will readily admit they would take the first because it is definite, especially in a high-volatility environment like this.


Or someone trying to crash the market to create panic, by up as many as possible, than sell to himself to make the price rise.
But in that case, you can join that ride unless you panic to.

This is what I suspected when I saw a huge wall of asks appear.  Though I don't think it would be very feasible to sell to oneself to make the price rise - one would have to clear out all the asks on the order book in the process, something that can be accomplished simply by buying the usual way without selling to oneself.


Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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