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Author Topic: Economic FAQ  (Read 4308 times)
kiba
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July 28, 2010, 03:09:04 PM
 #1

Guys...time to make a better economic FAQ.

This is the starting list...

Objections/Concerns

1. Does Bitcoins violate the Mises Regression Theorem?

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.0 (If somebody wants to summarize it, that would be great.)

2. Is the bitcoin economy safe from inflation?

3. Are Bitcoin legal tender?(Do people really ask this?)

4. What if bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding? Would that lead to a collapse?



Update 1: Added more questions. Feel free to provide answer.
update 2: Clarify questions.

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Babylon
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July 28, 2010, 07:47:17 PM
 #2

The other questions I have seen being discussed here are

Is Bitcoin inflation proof

Are Bitcoins legal tender

FreeMoney
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July 28, 2010, 11:03:22 PM
 #3

What happens if someone has 1,234,567 BTC and won't sell any at any price?

/sarcasm

But seriously, something on the ridiculousness of worrying about hording. And the absurdity of worrying that your coins are going to be worth too much. These are common worries because we all live in the world of "spend it all quick it's losing value".

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Red
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July 29, 2010, 10:06:08 PM
 #4

What happens if someone has 1,234,567 BTC and won't sell any at any price?

/sarcasm

But seriously, something on the ridiculousness of worrying about hording. And the absurdity of worrying that your coins are going to be worth too much. These are common worries because we all live in the world of "spend it all quick it's losing value".

Hoarding is worth discussing but by no means is it rediculous.

If you are living in a world with price inflation then a key thing to teach your children about is the magic of banking with compound interest. The last thing you want is a long term piggybank.

In a world with pre-planned monotonic price deflation, the equivalent magic is called hoarding.
FreeMoney
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July 29, 2010, 10:18:10 PM
 #5

Woah, I didn't say hoarding was ridiculous. If you value your coins more than the highest offer of goods, services, or other currency, by all means you should keep them. But worrying that "Bitcoin is going to collapse because everyone is going to hold all their coins no matter what because they are absolutely guaranteed to increase in value." is ridiculous.

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Red
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July 29, 2010, 10:40:14 PM
 #6

Fair enough! :-)
Insti
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July 29, 2010, 10:46:50 PM
 #7

worrying that "Bitcoin is going to collapse because everyone is going to hold all their coins no matter what because they are absolutely guaranteed to increase in value." is ridiculous.

However it is still a frequently asked question.

Coming up with an answer that is better than "it's ridiculous" will probably be required. (unfortunately..)
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July 29, 2010, 11:10:59 PM
 #8

worrying that "Bitcoin is going to collapse because everyone is going to hold all their coins no matter what because they are absolutely guaranteed to increase in value." is ridiculous.

However it is still a frequently asked question.

Coming up with an answer that is better than "it's ridiculous" will probably be required. (unfortunately..)


For sure. 

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kiba
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July 30, 2010, 12:22:27 AM
 #9

I added a few questions, but nobody wrote a full answer to the questions yet.

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July 30, 2010, 12:38:18 AM
 #10

Objections/Concerns

1. Does Bitcoins violate the Mises Regression Theorem?

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.0 (If somebody wants to summarize it, that would be great.)

2. Is Bitcoin inflation proof?

3. Is Bitcoin legal tender?

4. What if bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding?


I added a few questions, but nobody wrote a full answer to the questions yet.

I don't know how to answer these questions. Perhaps others have similar problems.

2. What does "Inflation proof" mean?
3. What is "legal tender"?
4. I don't understand what this question is asking. If the bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding.
 then: The bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding.



kiba
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July 30, 2010, 12:44:31 AM
 #11

Objections/Concerns

1. Does Bitcoins violate the Mises Regression Theorem?

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.0 (If somebody wants to summarize it, that would be great.)

2. Is Bitcoin inflation proof?

3. Is Bitcoin legal tender?

4. What if bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding?


I added a few questions, but nobody wrote a full answer to the questions yet.

I don't know how to answer these questions. Perhaps others have similar problems.

2. What does "Inflation proof" mean?
3. What is "legal tender"?
4. I don't understand what this question is asking. If the bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding.
 then: The bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding.





I clarified some of the questions.

Insti
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July 30, 2010, 12:52:42 AM
 #12

I clarified some of the questions.

You seem to have reworded some questions but I don't think they are any clearer.
Sorry.

The best answer I can give to any of these questions is:
"Maybe"

Perhaps you'd be better off using the search function to find the threads where these issues have been discussed and deriving the questions from the answers provided.
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July 30, 2010, 12:56:33 AM
 #13


What is Legal Tender?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender
"Legal tender or forced tender is an offered payment that, by law, cannot be refused in settlement of a debt, and have the debt remain in force."

Short Answer:
No.
kiba
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July 30, 2010, 01:03:34 AM
 #14


You seem to have reworded some questions but I don't think they are any clearer.
Sorry.

The best answer I can give to any of these questions is:
"Maybe"

Perhaps you'd be better off using the search function to find the threads where these issues have been discussed and deriving the questions from the answers provided.


I understand all the questions. I am just not sure how to make clearer for you.

Red
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July 30, 2010, 05:34:13 AM
 #15

Guys...time to make a better economic FAQ.

This is the starting list...

Objections/Concerns

1. Does Bitcoins violate the Mises Regression Theorem?

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.0 (If somebody wants to summarize it, that would be great.)

2. Is the bitcoin economy safe from inflation?

3. Are Bitcoin legal tender?(Do people really ask this?)

4. What if bitcoin economy is deflating and everybody is hoarding? Would that lead to a collapse?



Update 1: Added more questions. Feel free to provide answer.
update 2: Clarify questions.

1. No. <-- That is the shorted summary of the well laid argument in that thread.
2. No. If people decide they don't want to sell their goods for bitcoins, prices will likely inflate on the goods that do trade. It's a sell your coins while they are still worth something situation.
3. No. Explained previously.
4. No. Hoarding doesn't lead to collapse.

If prices monotonically deflate, hoarding leads to wealth in exactly the same way as the interest from loaning money to a bank leads to wealth. The more coins you hoard the larger the summation of benefits from each coin buying more. The math is simple. It is equivalent to saying if you loan $10 in a bank you get twice as much interest as loaning $5.
falkenberg
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July 30, 2010, 07:36:19 AM
 #16

Guys...time to make a better economic FAQ.

This is the starting list...

Objections/Concerns

2. Is the bitcoin economy safe from inflation?

2. No. If people decide they don't want to sell their goods for bitcoins, prices will likely inflate on the goods that do trade. It's a sell your coins while they are still worth something situation.

the consequence of 2 is that bitcoins NEED other currency to survive. The economy grows and people need the media to exchange the goods. The bitcoin inflation is only possible when less goods are presented on bitcoin-goods market. This does not mean there are less goods to exchange, it means bitcoin-goods market must get smaller => other currency is needed to exchange growing goods.
Red
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July 30, 2010, 06:32:44 PM
 #17

the consequence of 2 is that bitcoins NEED other currency to survive. The economy grows and people need the media to exchange the goods. The bitcoin inflation is only possible when less goods are presented on bitcoin-goods market. This does not mean there are less goods to exchange, it means bitcoin-goods market must get smaller => other currency is needed to exchange growing goods.

I don't understand your point. I don't think you made it.

Bitcoins would work just as well as a national fiat currency with no other alternatives.

There would generally be price deflation over time as the amount of external commodity value increased against the constant number of bitcoins.

However if there was a war and lots of people were killed. The external commodity value would likely decrease and there would be a spike in inflation.

There could also be other spikes as people who were hoarding decided to trade their bitcoins.
falkenberg
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July 30, 2010, 07:09:03 PM
 #18


I don't understand your point. I don't think you made it.


if you did not understand it does not mean there is no point. The point is extremely simple: in the case of deflation the market will die. The deflation is the internal property of the bitcoins, because the amount of coins is limited. The only way to avoid this is to keep the market small. But it does not mean the amount of goods is going to be less in time. The goods will be exchanged using the other currency, that's it. So, to be stable, the bitcoins need other currency. Easy.

However if there was a war and lots of people were killed. The external commodity value would likely decrease and there would be a spike in inflation.

I think the expectations that the aliens will come from the outer space also need to be taken into account in order to build bitcoin economic model.  Grin

There could also be other spikes as people who were hoarding decided to trade their bitcoins.

The wise behavior in deflation stage is to hoard as much as you can. But it kills the economy.
Red
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July 30, 2010, 07:25:41 PM
 #19

The wise behavior in deflation stage is to hoard as much as you can.

But it kills the economy.

I agree with the first statement. I also happen to agree with the second statement (others here don't).

But I don't think anything you wrote supports the second statement. "keep the market small" is ill defined. The market had been growing and the value of coins is increasing. You didn't explain when this becomes bad.


However if there was a war and lots of people were killed. The external commodity value would likely decrease and there would be a spike in inflation.

I think the expectations that the aliens will come from the outer space also need to be taken into account in order to build bitcoin economic model.  Grin

I was only pointing out that "safe from inflation" isn't a constant. In my mind it shouldn't even be a goal for bitcoin. However others seem to think this is a feature.

I posted in another thread about inflation, deflation and lending. Check my history if you are interested.

falkenberg
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July 30, 2010, 09:26:33 PM
 #20

The market had been growing and the value of coins is increasing. You didn't explain when this becomes bad.

I guess the people who sells their services or goods for BC do it just for fun. I do not think the role of BC in their busyness is serious.

BTW, if you'll check the statistic on https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/ you'll see the value of deals with BCs is permanently decreasing. It is too early to make any conclusions, but... I guess it would be nice if the people who do their business with BC publish here their statistic: how many deals they make in BCs in a month i.e. Just to analyse the activity. If there are no much deals with BCs (especially comparing to the deals using the real money) a service provider can ask any price in BCs, it would not affect  his busyness much.
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