If you look here: http://ci.bitcoinj.org/job/MultiBit-v0.3/org.multibit$multibit/
you can see that the jar of just the MultiBit code comes in at under 1MB and when you add in the dependent jars it needs (to make the multibit executable jar) it comes in at 3.7MiB.
With ruthless pruning of functionality (eg get rid of QR codes, splash screens etc) you might make it under your limit.
There is no command line interface though so you would need to keep the GUI.
Most of the download from the multibit.org website is a recent blockchain. It willl download this if it is not provided (took 3.5 hours on a vanilla WiFi last time I tried it).
If you have 3 categories for your replies of 'Perfect', 'Possible', 'Not Possible' I would put MultiBit in 'Possible'. Would be a bit of work on your part though.