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Author Topic: trendlines and manipulators  (Read 2232 times)
alan2here
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January 20, 2012, 05:05:09 PM
 #1

Maybe we could sticky this thread or similar?

Many straight lines can be drawn to roughly fit most Bitcoin to USD over time charts, this dosn't give them meaning.

Similarly trends can be found in numbers of roughly defined "bumps" that come before other bumps, but they are just as useless at telling the future. Those that were no good are quickly forgotten whereas one that worked are more often remembered.

Bitcoin to USD over time is quite random and so there is a great deal of chance involved in trading however good you are. These sorts of psychological issues are well established and we should be on the look out for them, instead of posting proudly, as there making fools of us all.

Similarly with manipulators. I think such systems tend towards "the long tail" where there are a few "manipulator" level speculators, many more in the middle with most speculators only trading small amounts, however there is no cut-off, everyone is some degree in the middle. When those towards the head end of the long tail model trade many may still need to work together to achieve greater market movement, however the same applies to those further towards the tail. Those at the top arn't going to have any better way of coordinating there efforts than "we" are, because there is no "us" and "them", there arn't "manipulators", just large trades that shake things up, with decreasing frequency of trades of increasingly larger sizes.
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naima53
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January 20, 2012, 07:46:35 PM
 #2

I came here because I was wondering why no one answered, not even once.  Huh And now i understood why ... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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alan2here
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January 30, 2012, 06:35:32 PM
 #3

Why?
naima53
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January 30, 2012, 07:04:34 PM
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Why?
I agree that it is not "manipulators" and only a big deal shaken the market. This text is too difficult for the interpreter. And I think too complicated. But yeah. No pattern of jumps. If I want to buy some tomorrow AK47, I'll buy a few thousand BTC. I manipulator?

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January 30, 2012, 08:01:56 PM
 #5

Why?
I agree that it is not "manipulators" and only a big deal shaken the market. This text is too difficult for the interpreter. And I think too complicated. But yeah. No pattern of jumps. If I want to buy some tomorrow AK47, I'll buy a few thousand BTC. I manipulator?

I thought you can get one for 200 US$? Do they charge surcharge for BTC;) ?
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February 01, 2012, 08:32:35 AM
 #6

Why?
I agree that it is not "manipulators" and only a big deal shaken the market. This text is too difficult for the interpreter. And I think too complicated. But yeah. No pattern of jumps. If I want to buy some tomorrow AK47, I'll buy a few thousand BTC. I manipulator?

I thought you can get one for 200 US$? Do they charge surcharge for BTC;) ?
I already have.  Smiley But maybe I want American-made AK47 (higher quality) Cheesy

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alan2here
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February 08, 2012, 12:23:22 AM
 #7

bump
notme
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February 08, 2012, 12:42:02 AM
 #8

What do you want?  There is nothing in your OP worth replying to.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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alan2here
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February 08, 2012, 12:53:42 AM
 #9

It didn't stay on the first page for long first time round and I think it's important.

I don't know what you mean by "nothing worth replying to".
RyNinDaCleM
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February 08, 2012, 02:13:38 AM
 #10

Here is what I said about it in September:

Here is the way I see it!
He puts a large wall up on the sell side, causing people who want to get an order executed to trickle over the top and down in front. He then pulls his order causing a very thin market near the going rate, and he sweeps them up as to not move the price up higher than needed. And, repeat!

On the buy side, it's to show false support (ex. demand), therefore, causing the other buyers to raise their bids, so he can sell higher, and again, not to lower the price more than is necessary!

Then you'll, on occasion, see a rather large wall on both sides! I believe this is when he is taking a break (sleep) so he knows the price will still be where he left it when he picks back up where he left off!

It's mind games really! This is someone with experience in stock trading, manipulation, and psychological reaction, and wanted an easy profit!

I believe he can force the price to where he wants, when he wants! When you have 25K+ BTC, and $100,000 at the same time, well, you have that kind of power!



This was posted not too long ago in another thread:

There are a few things that I have been reticent to talk about, simply because I didn't want the general public to know the stuff that "we" know.  However, in the spirit of this thread - helping people to stop losing money - I have decided to share a little.

One of the main and widely-talked about issues is "the manipulator".  After watching time and again as individuals have "the hammer" dropped on them, I figured I might as well shed a little light on what may be happening.  There are several different strategies being used by a few individuals with "lots" of buying power, so I'll talk a little about the main strategy I see on a daily basis.

The manipulator is basically a large trader who is repetitively practicing a strategy we call "the hammer".  It's a simple strategy of deception and can lead to a "crack" in prices.  Prior to applying a systematic strategy to the BTC market, I used to trade with him and make a decent profit.

The Hammer (Long)
1.  Big trader posts large volume on the ask side
2.  Individuals see the ask and try and get in front of him by selling/shorting/lowering their offers
3.  He is simultaneously buying at the bid from the small guys
4.  As soon as selling volume dries up, he pulls his ask and enters long, causing a jump in prices
5.  He sells to the people who buy behind him, scalping a profit

How to Play the Hammer (Long)
1.  Watch the volume from the small traders that are trying to trade in front of him
2.  When the volume dries up and he pulls his ask - enter long
3.  If he doesn't follow soon with a large trade, exit your trade at a scratch or loss

There are several different variants of this strategy, but as a general rule of thumb - if you see a fake bid or ask, the markets are probably going that way soon.

This is more for informative purposes than actual trading advice.  See how subjective this is?  In my opinion, this type of trading isn't scalable and it doesn't possess long-term profitability, which is what this thread is about. My suggestion is that you take this information as a little "FYI" and stick to a systematic and tested strategy, ignoring the games that go on in the order-book entirely.


notme
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February 08, 2012, 02:17:37 AM
 #11

I saw the bold text as "I used to identify the pattern and follow it to pinch a bit of the profit", but maybe I'm just not conspiracy minded enough.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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RyNinDaCleM
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February 08, 2012, 02:25:00 AM
 #12

I saw the bold text as "I used to identify the pattern and follow it to pinch a bit of the profit", but maybe I'm just not conspiracy minded enough.

I agree!
I didn't mean for it to sound so conspiracy theorist driven.  Embarrassed
That made me no better than the media...  Roll Eyes

Edited for PC'edness.

StewartJ
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February 08, 2012, 04:52:04 AM
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The Hammer (Long)
1.  Big trader posts large volume on the ask side
2.  Individuals see the ask and try and get in front of him by selling/shorting/lowering their offers
3.  He is simultaneously buying at the bid from the small guys
4.  As soon as selling volume dries up, he pulls his ask and enters long, causing a jump in prices
5.  He sells to the people who buy behind him, scalping a profit

How to Play the Hammer (Long)
1.  Watch the volume from the small traders that are trying to trade in front of him
2.  When the volume dries up and he pulls his ask - enter long
3.  If he doesn't follow soon with a large trade, exit your trade at a scratch or loss



A song for the The Hammer....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUKB3PxG-0E


(Rest in Peace, Mary Travers)
naima53
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February 08, 2012, 08:19:25 AM
 #14

Why?
I agree that it is not "manipulators" and only a big deal shaken the market. This text is too difficult for the interpreter. And I think too complicated. But yeah. No pattern of jumps. If I want to buy some tomorrow AK47, I'll buy a few thousand BTC. I manipulator?

I thought you can get one for 200 US$? Do they charge surcharge for BTC;) ?
I already have.  Smiley But maybe I want American-made AK47 (higher quality) Cheesy

U.S. AK type semi auto rifles are mostly made from surplus parts kits that were shipped from soviet bloc countries and had the receiver destroyed in the process! In other words, they are junk. Yet due to the robust AK design, they are still functional.

People in the U.S. who want a quality AK look for U.S. companies that take imported Saiga sporting rifles from IzhMash and convert them to the more typical semi-auto AK everyone is accustomed to.

Real AK-47s (with full-auto functionality) cost many thousands of dollars (they are not allowed to be imported for three decades now) and require approval from the ATF to own. You might be able to own one for $25,000. In the U.S. that is.
it was a joke (American quality) .. I could sell my AK in the United States for $ 25,000?! Factory retail price in Russia at him ~ 75 times smaller .. Is the import of the original AK in a single copy illegal?

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naima53
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February 08, 2012, 08:35:22 AM
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Quote
Ahh, well. The U.S. makes some of the finest rifles available! So do a bunch of other countries as well.  Wink
Yes, I do not deny it. It seems each country protects its arms manufacturers. So in the United States prohibits the sale of fully automatic weapons?

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naima53
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February 08, 2012, 08:48:30 AM
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Quote
Ahh, well. The U.S. makes some of the finest rifles available! So do a bunch of other countries as well.  Wink
Yes, I do not deny it. It seems each country protects its arms manufacturers. So in the United States prohibits the sale of fully automatic weapons?

Yes, a few bills were passed, I don't know the exact dates or details (about 30 years ago, Ronald Reagan was in office). But basically manufacturing and / or importing fully automatic weapons is illegal (for civilian sale, of course the military - law enforcement still has access).

Weapons manufactured / imported before the law passed are legal to own and sell, but they are obviously rare (because of the law) which explains the high price tag. You also need to be approved by the ATF, pay $200, and wait for some time.


very democratic ... In Russia (by law) are not allowed to own any firearm. But you can "become the hunter," or "private guard" and officially have a gun or automatic "Saiga" .. , (not fully automatic, too.)

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naima53
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February 08, 2012, 09:29:58 AM
 #17

I will return to the main theme. I think that it is often necessary not to pay your attention to the wall to buy \ sell. They are partly controlled bots. Create the illusion of "orientation" of the market.

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chsados
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February 09, 2012, 06:10:17 AM
 #18

very democratic ... In Russia (by law) are not allowed to own any firearm. But you can "become the hunter," or "private guard" and officially have a gun or automatic "Saiga" .. , (not fully automatic, too.)

Well, in the U.S. we do still have the 2nd amendment, no matter how many politicians want to ignore it. The laws banning machine guns are silly. They are "feel good" laws only. To be honest, a semi-auto can be as deadly or possibly more deadly (precision) than a full-auto. This is why certain military rifles have other selections: M4 - 3 rd burst, AN94 - 2 rd burst.

All full-auto does is make sure you run out of bullets fast.  Grin

but why would a civilian ever need a fully automatic rifle?  i agree with the law,  no regular civilian should have access to these.  why would you ever hunt with them to begin with?

you dont need precision shooting into a massive crowd  Wink
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February 09, 2012, 02:33:11 PM
 #19

manipulator manipulates you, not the value of BTC

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naima53
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February 09, 2012, 03:44:34 PM
 #20

manipulator manipulates you, not the value of BTC
mmmm .. I recall! Manipulator! Today is Thursday! do not forget to check your email! (sarcasm)  Grin

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