Big fluctuations in total network hashing power

[malevolent]

How is it possible that there are changes of total network hashing by 20-50% in 24-48h?

From what I read this can happen for a day or two after a difficulty change but from what I see it also happens before (now).
Or is there a problem with network monitors (bitcoin.sipa.be and others)

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[Costia]

maybe some people are testing their new Ghash/s FPGAs or pools being DDoSed

[kjj]

There are no measurements of the network speed, just estimates.  The estimates are very noisy, particularly on short time frames.

[BinaryMage]

maybe some people are testing their new Ghash/s FPGAs or pools being DDoSed

ABCPool was DDOS'd a few days ago, that probably had a small effect. Mostly it's just fluctuation though - network hashrate estimates are based on the number of blocks found in a certain time period, which varies based on luck. (or pseudo-luck)

[malevolent]

maybe some people are testing their new Ghash/s FPGAs or pools being DDoSed

ABCPool was DDOS'd a few days ago, that probably had a small effect. Mostly it's just fluctuation though - network hashrate estimates are based on the number of blocks found in a certain time period, which varies based on luck. (or pseudo-luck)

I wouldnt say it was a ddos because similiar fluctuations happen all the time, I think it changes so wildly because of the variance of luck.

[cpt_howdy]

I assumed a lot of variation was due to hashing power following the price of electricity over the course of a day. Does seem to be a strong component with a period of ~24 hours.

[DeathAndTaxes]

There are no measurements of the network speed, just estimates.  The estimates are very noisy, particularly on short time frames.

The correct answer seems to have been missed.

There is no way to know the hashrate of the network.  We can only estimate it by looking at block completion time.

IF global network hashing rate was 9,000,000,000,000 hashes/s exactly and never varied the graph would still show variance because it is indirectly estimated hashing power based on block completion time.

[BinaryMage]

The correct answer seems to have been missed.

There is no way to know the hashrate of the network.  We can only estimate it by looking at block completion time.

IF global network hashing rate was 9,000,000,000,000 hashes/s exactly and never varied the graph would still show variance because it is indirectly estimated hashing power based on block completion time.

ABCPool was DDOS'd a few days ago, that probably had a small effect. Mostly it's just fluctuation though - network hashrate estimates are based on the number of blocks found in a certain time period, which varies based on luck. (or pseudo-luck)

It wasn't missed. 

But thanks for the good intentions anyways.