TA 101A With MatTheCat May 13th 2014

[windjc]

The Major trendline since January 2013, as the OP-Noob ist calling it, is not only broken  by China but also by Bitstamp.
Noobs won`t find that out



2 green arrows up right

You're back! Awesome. More beat downs to come. 

[goxed]

[GigaCoin]

I think by Q3 2014 we don't see any recovery

[sharkyshark]

If we can pass slowly, on small volume ...

$459.65 bitfinex

then you will see a very, very, very good push upwards.. If we cant on high volume we will go down..

Very simple...

Short can average up only so much than need to buy back.

We haven't seen capitulation either so very interesting times.. (but this might only happen after the next move up...



Make your plan and execute it...

[zimmah]

Problem is - which is more likely in next 30-45 days: "big money from the west" or "bad news from China?"

You know the answer. Which is why everyone saying we are going to break UP from this wedge (which purely from a technical standpoint more often breaks down) is nothing but WISHFUL THINKING.

China has already been factored in, there's nothing China could possibly do to drop the price even more, we are at a level were we were before China ever adopted bitcoin, so the price is now completely controlled by the west.

And the west has not been standing still for the past 6 months, many projects have been launched and millions of dollars have been pumped into ventures and such, which will eventually have an influence on the entire bitcoin project. Thus, the price is expected to go up, not down. You'd be a fool to believe the price would drop sub-300 ever again.

[zimmah]

By the looks of those charts i'd say the price would move either up or down very rapidly, my guess is up. Nice charts.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

1: I said the line that NOW is at 420, that same line was of course at 400 and a little less month ago.
2: linear?? the chart is in logarithmic scale what are you talking about?

Apologies. The chart is indeed log, but that doesn't stop your lines being 'all over the shop' But your $380-$400-$420 line cannot by any stretch of the imagination be said to represent a strong support line.

I don't see why. the lines touch perfectly various crucial points in the chart, I have used them during all the bear market once they were enstablished and they made for perfect trades. I guess the most profitable and safe you could have done. they just work.

Excellent chart chessnut! i agree.

@MatTheCat:
If you would have used the chessnut chart you would have nailed the 340 bottom perfectly for example.
These simple "long term" trend lines are the most useful tool in BTC TA in my opinion.


PS: I think taking into account the first two "bubbles" (the ones before 2013) when drawing trend lines is kinda pointless.

Problem is - which is more likely in next 30-45 days: "big money from the west" or "bad news from China?"

You know the answer. Which is why everyone saying we are going to break UP from this wedge (which purely from a technical standpoint more often breaks down) is nothing but WISHFUL THINKING.

China has already been factored in, there's nothing China could possibly do to drop the price even more, we are at a level were we were before China ever adopted bitcoin, so the price is now completely controlled by the west.

And the west has not been standing still for the past 6 months, many projects have been launched and millions of dollars have been pumped into ventures and such, which will eventually have an influence on the entire bitcoin project. Thus, the price is expected to go up, not down. You'd be a fool to believe the price would drop sub-300 ever again.

agreed.

[MatTheCat]

Make your plan and execute it...

The point of doing this sort of TA is that you can have two plans. I have two plans (only looking to go long at the moment due to psychological issues with shorting) although I do suspect that it is more likely that I will be buying in at the $300 and perhaps even $200 range (cos market goes down) other than in the upper $400s (cos the market has went up).

[T.Stuart]

Make your plan and execute it...

The point of doing this sort of TA is that you can have two plans. I have two plans (only looking to go long at the moment due to psychological issues with shorting) although I do suspect that it is more likely that I will be buying in at the $300 and perhaps even $200 range (cos market goes down) other than in the upper $400s (cos the market has went up).

Basing your plans on "psychological issues"? I so know how you feel! 

[MatTheCat]

Basing your plans on "psychological issues"? I so know how you feel!  

Or perhaps not quite.

When I am long, I will get spooked out dreams and/or intuitions about Bitcoin if long positions are about to take a slaughtering. If I am short Bitcoin, I will feel positive about Bitcoin if my position is about to get a slaughtering and get spooked out about it if my short position is about to hit the jackpot.......and change to a long at the 11th hour and take the subsequent kicking, instead of the jackpot I was lined up for.

I have therefore decided that short or 'inverted' counter intuitive positions are not for me.


My latest Bitcoin dream indicated this much time of sharp downside =  |     |

But followed by this much time of notably larger upside                   = |                                                               |

Thus I favour TA that suggests one way or the other a final low or retest of lows, followed by good period of overall upside, whether that turn out to be as a part of a Primary Wave 5, or as the Wave B part of the Primary Wave 4 correction.

[knightcoin]

Sometimes I like to look at .. Keltner Channel and Bollinger Bands ...

[YipYip]

Make your plan and execute it...

The point of doing this sort of TA is that you can have two plans. I have two plans (only looking to go long at the moment due to psychological issues with shorting) although I do suspect that it is more likely that I will be buying in at the $300 and perhaps even $200 range (cos market goes down) other than in the upper $400s (cos the market has went up).

You are looking at these charts and still saying that rubbish...

You are full of it ..honestly "PERMABEARBOY"

I have never seen such a healthy chart for btc in the last 6 months

[MatTheCat]

You are looking at these charts and still saying that rubbish...

You are full of it ..honestly "PERMABEARBOY"

I have never seen such a healthy chart for btc in the last 6 months

Instead of spewing your Kool-Aid out at me and everyone else who hasn't got you on ignore.

Why don't you explain to us all precisely why this chart is so healthy?

[YipYip]

You are looking at these charts and still saying that rubbish...

You are full of it ..honestly "PERMABEARBOY"

I have never seen such a healthy chart for btc in the last 6 months

Instead of spewing your Kool-Aid out at me and everyone else who hasn't got you on ignore.

Why don't you explain to us all precisely why this chart is so healthy?

its a squeeze that is building ..the kerner channels are inside the Bolinger bands on what was low volume...now its moving to low-mid

Normally this is a trend change event from oscillation -> trending ...either up or down ..but i am keen on up as you know  

EDIT : SO this is how you react when the market goes against you with the "Kool AID" comments ... really shows how impartial you are ...You obviously only work in a downtrending market bear boy..I think u will need to have a sleep for the next 6-12 months as the reversal is hear & china is out

[MatTheCat]

its a squeeze that is building ..the kerner channels are inside the Bolinger bands on what was low volume...now its moving to low-mid

Normally this is a trend change event from oscillation -> trending ...either up or down ..but i am keen on up as you know  

EDIT : SO this is how you react when the market goes against you with the "Kool AID" comments ... really shows how impartial you are ...You obviously only work in a downtrending market bear boy..I think u will need to have a sleep for the next 6-12 months as the reversal is hear & china is out

I am open to the market going either direction. But right now is not a time to take any position, cos the market could go either way. My 'intuition' is that we will go down a bit yet. But if the market is to rise, then I will jump along for the ride for sure.

In the medium term, I am bullish, but feel that their is another low to come before any meaningful upside.

You have a good name. 'Yip Yip' suits you cos that is all that you do. 'Yip Yip Yip Yip Yip' like a hyper dog with a one track mind, hence my reaction with the Kool-Aid comments.

[bitcoinsrus]

its a squeeze that is building ..the kerner channels are inside the Bolinger bands on what was low volume...now its moving to low-mid

Normally this is a trend change event from oscillation -> trending ...either up or down ..but i am keen on up as you know  

EDIT : SO this is how you react when the market goes against you with the "Kool AID" comments ... really shows how impartial you are ...You obviously only work in a downtrending market bear boy..I think u will need to have a sleep for the next 6-12 months as the reversal is hear & china is out

I am open to the market going either direction. But right now is not a time to take any position, cos the market could go either way. My 'intuition' is that we will go down a bit yet. But if the market is to rise, then I will jump along for the ride for sure.

In the medium term, I am bullish, but feel that their is another low to come before any meaningful upside.

You have a good name. 'Yip Yip' suits you cos that is all that you do. 'Yip Yip Yip Yip Yip' like a hyper dog with a one track mind, hence my reaction with the Kool-Aid comments.

[YipYip]

its a squeeze that is building ..the kerner channels are inside the Bolinger bands on what was low volume...now its moving to low-mid

Normally this is a trend change event from oscillation -> trending ...either up or down ..but i am keen on up as you know  

EDIT : SO this is how you react when the market goes against you with the "Kool AID" comments ... really shows how impartial you are ...You obviously only work in a downtrending market bear boy..I think u will need to have a sleep for the next 6-12 months as the reversal is hear & china is out

I am open to the market going either direction. But right now is not a time to take any position, cos the market could go either way. My 'intuition' is that we will go down a bit yet. But if the market is to rise, then I will jump along for the ride for sure.

In the medium term, I am bullish, but feel that their is another low to come before any meaningful upside.

You have a good name. 'Yip Yip' suits you cos that is all that you do. 'Yip Yip Yip Yip Yip' like a hyper dog with a one track mind, hence my reaction with the Kool-Aid comments.

Sure I am a believer....crypto has rewarded me very well for my efforts

Markets go up they go down ..so why would I suddenly stop beliving in the MOVEMENT that is crypto

So as long as you dont think it will fail then long term everyone should be bullish ....our 1 second concentration span that we have in crypto is not the real world of equities investment

Veronica & others were & are textbook losers ....dont worry i will be bringing her name up when we are 1k-5k values

After working in Banking & finance for the last 10 years ...I am totally converted ..every time i use crypto it still gives me a buzz as it is soooo awesome & pure ...so if this belief in something or a technology then sign me up

Kool AId is for the delusional ...I am more of an technology evangelist as I have seen the light

[MatTheCat]

Kool Aid is for the delusional ...I am more of an technology evangelist as I have seen the light:

Crypto aint going away anytime soon and perhaps not ever. But that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to be 'it'. It may go a long way. It may one day implode. It may have already gone as far as it is going to go and be imploding in front of our eyes as we scour charts looking for a good long opportunity?

[YipYip]

Kool Aid is for the delusional ...I am more of an technology evangelist as I have seen the light:

So funny ... Hows your clinical depression going its obvious that you need a laugh at my expense ..Good for you ...