Could One Bitcoin Come To Be Worth $1 Billion?

[_smudger_]

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051414/could-one-bitcoin-come-be-worth-1-billion-qa.asp

[cryptopaths]

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051414/could-one-bitcoin-come-be-worth-1-billion-qa.asp

....That would put the Market cap at 21 quadrillion dollars. Whoever wrote this article is a complete idiot.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

And make Satoshi the richest being on the planet, or group. They would literally have the ability to buy the planet.

[fudbuster]

I think that would be impossible. But $10,000-$100,000 each... not impossible 

[findftp]

I think that would be impossible. But $10,000-$100,000 each... not impossible 

Of course it is possible, when a loaf of bread costs you $1,000,000 a bitcoin will be valued infinite because you don't want to sell your bitcoins.

[pummle]

Look at Zimbabwe, it could happen. The US government has no intention of stopping the printing presses, inflation will catch up to them eventually.

[BTFjmwn]

Too many pump and dumpers out there for BTC to even get back to $1000.

[JamesSchofield]

I'm an optimist also but $1 billion? Lol i dont think so.

[FreebieZoner]

Not gonna happen,  too many pumpers and dumpers.

[bitcoin4eva]

If almost all of the bitcoins in circulations somehow disappeared it could happen but I highly doubt it.

[Peter R]

Of course 1 BTC could be worth $1 billion dollars.  The price of bitcoin when measured in USD could be anywhere between 0 and infinity.  If the USD collapsed at some point in the future, the price of bitcoin measured in dollars would follow a chart similar to the German Mark during the Weimar hyperinflation event (note that the curve went hyperbolic on a log scale):




A better question is: could 1 BTC every have the same purchasing power as $1 billion dollars has today?  In my opinion, this would not be possible even in the most outlandishly successful cases for bitcoin.  

[franky1]

firstly the OP needs to read the article. it talks about $1million not $1billion, but anyways..

there are 2 topics mentioning this so ill just post my message here too.

I recently researched that the average life savings of people is $44k
That is round figure of other countries converted to dollars. and averages of the rich and poor. all gathered from multiple statistics websites.

so now $44k x 7billion = 308,000,000,000,000

now 21 million bitcoins ever to exist

308Tril / 21mill = $14,666,666.66

so there we have it. if every single person in the whole world dropped their native currency and wanted bitcoin. then the max value of bitcoin is estimated at around $14.66mill

but w al know not everyone will want bitcoin for local, national, social, political reasons. so i think that maybe 1-5% (about the size of a country (currently we are at about 0.017%)).

and even with 1-5% wanting bitcoin they would probably not have every penny as bitcoin, they would diversify by having maybe 10% as ready to use local currency, and an even split between bitcoin gold and silver (atmost 30% bitcoin holdings on average)

yes there may be bitcoin fans that hold all 90% as bitcoin and 10% local currency(as time goes on less likely due to world demand)
yes there may be alot more holding 50-90% local currency with only 10% bitcoin.(as time goes on more likely due to world demand)

so now some context is given.

let say 3% population having 30% bitcoin holding

=210million people with $14k life savings in bitcoin = 2,940,000,000,000 (2.94Tril)
=2.94Tril / 21mill coins = $140,000 per bitcoin

and that is what i predict as the 'mass adopted year 2140 bitcoin price' $140,000

though i do prefer predictions like every 'of age'/adult (5billion) having atleast one months minimum wage salary ($1200) in bitcoin
=$6,000,000,000,000 bitcoin market cap
=$285,714.29 per bitcoin

all of this goes to show that even in context with semi/rough statistics to go by i dont think bitcoin will pass $1billion per coin. and at a stretch there is a SMALL chance it will pass $1million per coin

[E-C.Guru]

Of course 1 BTC could be worth $1 billion dollars.  The price of bitcoin when measured in USD could be anywhere between 0 and infinity.  If the USD collapsed at some point in the future, the price of bitcoin measured in dollars would follow a chart similar to the German Mark during the Weimar hyperinflation event (note that the curve went hyperbolic on a log scale):

https://i.imgur.com/dfVWtlV.png


A better question is: could 1 BTC every have the same purchasing power as $1 billion dollars has today?  In my opinion, this would not be possible even in the most outlandishly successful cases for bitcoin.  

Are we in 1921-23 right now? Perhaps that peak-end/half crash was 2008..

[Beliathon]

Of course 1 BTC could be worth $1 billion dollars.  The price of bitcoin when measured in USD could be anywhere between 0 and infinity.  If WHEN the USD collapses at some point in the future, the price of bitcoin measured in dollars would follow a chart similar to the German Mark during the Weimar hyperinflation event.

FTFY. It will happen this decade.

[Bibop]

Cant be that high. its not an endless source of energy

[franky1]

Two problems with your analysis are that the savings are not just in cash, and your analysis does not account for FRB. You can't apply your numbers directly without accounting for those issues.

bonds are not to be counted twice.

dollars/bank notes are what the reserve prints out in exchange for a bond

imagine government hands the reserve a bond for $50k (small numbers, small minds) the reserve then prints $10x 5000 bank notes.

so you cant include bank notes and bonds as they are the same kettle of fish,, and you are also going to get into the whole debt hoo-haa..

so keeping it simple.. ignoring the government and banks, (debt and bonds)

if the PEOPLE drop the dollar then my maths does stand....

hmmmmmmmmm actually.

if the people dropped the dollar. then the whole 'value of the dollar would collapse. where for instance one loaf of bread would end up costing $1mill.....

so basically if a whole country droppd the dollar. then bitcoins would be worth trillions each as 1 trillion dollars would be the equivalent to a 3 bedroom house

[findftp]

Of course 1 BTC could be worth $1 billion dollars.  The price of bitcoin when measured in USD could be anywhere between 0 and infinity.  If the USD collapsed at some point in the future, the price of bitcoin measured in dollars would follow a chart similar to the German Mark during the Weimar hyperinflation event (note that the curve went hyperbolic on a log scale):



A better question is: could 1 BTC every have the same purchasing power as $1 billion dollars has today?  In my opinion, this would not be possible even in the most outlandishly successful cases for bitcoin.  

Are we in 1921-23 right now? Perhaps that peak-end/half crash was 2008..

I would say so. We are at around 10.000 paper mark vs 1 gold mark I would say.

[Peter R]

Of course 1 BTC could be worth $1 billion dollars.  The price of bitcoin when measured in USD could be anywhere between 0 and infinity.  If WHEN the USD collapses at some point in the future, the price of bitcoin measured in dollars would follow a chart similar to the German Mark during the Weimar hyperinflation event.

FTFY. It will happen this decade.

That's a good point.  The USD will collapse at some point in time.  The question is: Will that point in time be before or after bitcoin collapses?  If the answer is "before bitcoin," then the USD/BTC ratio will diverge to infinity.  If the answer is "after bitcoin," then the USD/BTC ratio will converge to zero.    

[justusranvier]

I think it's conceivable that 1 bitcoin in the future could have the same purchasing power that $1-10 million has today, with certain assumptions regarding what a world economy would look like with Bitcoin as a universal currency.

[Peter R]

I think it's conceivable that 1 bitcoin in the future could have the same purchasing power that $1-10 million has today, with certain assumptions regarding what a world economy would look like with Bitcoin as a universal currency.

Agree.  In terms of equivalent purchasing power to the dollar today, I think:

A.  Bitcoin becomes an accepted store-of-value alternative to gold:

    ~$10^5

B.  Bitcoin becomes a significant global medium of exchange:

   ~$10^6

C.  Bitcoin becomes the unit of account used globally and large organizations hold bitcoin reserves to conduct monetary policy (I don't expect Keynesians to go fully extinct):

   ~$10^7

In fairness, there is also possibility D:

D.  The entire experiment fails:

     $0