Does martingale really works?

[dooglus]

Thats very lucky on this bet..

2014-06-14 23:14:44 #1248223656: 5.12  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:95.8334 profit:51.20000000

9% and he got lucky i guess thats his last btc ...

Yes, it was lucky, but it was his 37th attempt to win at 9%.

That wasn't his last BTC - he ran out of coins in his balance on the 36th bet, then redeposited to make the 37th bet.  His deposit was enough to make quite a few more attempts, not just one.  Note that even with infinite resources he didn't have far to go before running up against the maximum profit per bet limit of around 255 BTC.

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[dooglus]

Martingale works...
But do it in a live casino than sites like JD,PD etc. It is because you can never verify the spins on these sites.

You have it exactly backwards.  At JD you can absolutely verify every roll, and in live casinos you can't.  Maybe the blackjack table has a few aces missing from the shoe.  You would never know.  Maybe the roulette wheel isn't properly balanced.  Etc.  At JD you can check that every roll is 100% fair.

I have had a losing streak of 20(at 49.5%.. on PD. and mathematically, the probability of that happening is less than 0.01 %...

In real casinos, I have never had a losing streak of more that 11... and this means over a sample size of more than 1000's of rolls.

You probably play more online than in live casinos because it's faster.  Maybe you were especially unlucky.  But don't go throwing around accusations of cheating when it can be proven mathematically that JD doesn't cheat.  Just because you can't be bothered to understand how JD is provably fair doesn't tell us anything other than exactly that.

[dooglus]

Isn't employing martingale in livecasinos forbidden? I have heard stories that the security staff would throw you out.

I think they like you to think that you have discovered a secret and forbidden way of winning.

But in reality they love Martingale players.  They keep the spread between min and max bets tight enough that you can't survive a very long losing streak.  Most Martingale players who limit their play will win a little, but a few will bust and lose more than enough to make up for the majority who win a little.

[dooglus]

The Martingale system is a con... an edge will always cut you apart in the long haul.

It's a losing strategy, just like any other strategy which involves modulating your stake in a -EV game.

But "con" is a bit strong.  There's no deception here, unless someone is selling it as a winning system.

Graphs being posted here suggest there is on average at some point when using the system an advantage but that is not true...

I'm posting graphs to demonstrate what actually happens when people play Martingale.  So far I've posted 3 of them: two winners and a loser.  I don't mean to suggest that 66.666% of the time you will win.  This is purely anecdotal evidence.  It just so happens that since I've been watching out for and posting notable Martingale stories, two have resulted in the players winning and only one has resulted in a loss.

The way Martingale generally works is that mostly people win using it, but the occasional bust more than covers all the wins.

Notice the y axis on the site profit charts - the site is *up* by 18 thousand BTC.  That should be enough to suggest that the house is winning and the players are losing over all.

tl;dr: Martingale is a losing strategy on average, but the variance is huge

[dooglus]

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -1.28 -1.28 -1.28 -1.28 -2.56 -2.56 -2.56 -2.56 51.2

I think this is an example of why it does not work. He was only going to win a few 0.005 bets in the best case scenario and in this case he was only a few bets away of losing his total bankroll. It was either a win of 0.005 or a loss of 100+ BTC.

I don't understand how you can look at that chart, see those numbers, and come to the conclusion that "He was only going to win a few 0.005 bets in the best case scenario".

Look at the chart.  He ended up more than 30 BTC higher than where he started.  That isn't "a few 0.005 bets".

And look at the numbers:

>>> 0 - 0.01 - 0.01 - 0.01 - 0.01 - 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.04 - 0.04 - 0.04 - 0.04 - 0.08 - 0.08 - 0.08 - 0.08 - 0.16 - 0.16 - 0.16 - 0.16 - 0.32 - 0.32 - 0.32 - 0.32 - 0.64 - 0.64 - 0.64 - 0.64 - 1.28 - 1.28 - 1.28 - 1.28 - 2.56 - 2.56 - 2.56 - 2.56 + 51.2
30.76

That sequence alone netted him a profit of 30.76 BTC.

Martingale's dumb, but not *that* dumb...

[dooglus]

Today's story comes from Doge-Dice.com, the retarded sister of Just-Dice.com where a lucky Martingale player managed to take over 40 million DOGE from the site.

[ Edit: this thread should be a general repository for Martingale stories from all over the place, not just JD and DD ]

This guy was playing at 49.5% with a 2x payout, but multiplying his stake by a factor of 3 each time he lost.  That's pretty risky.

Here's his profit chart:



Here's the tail end of his list of bets:

2014-06-15 17:25:48 #595437442:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:01.0142 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:25:52 #595437535:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:78.3179 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:26:01 #595437813:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:04.3515 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:26:16 #595438289:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:79.8750 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:26:29 #595438682:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:88.7471 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:26:38 #595438964:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:85.5515 profit: -900000
2014-06-15 17:26:49 #595439315: 2700000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:03.0741 profit: 2700000
2014-06-15 17:27:19 #595440214:   10000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:58.6630 profit:  -10000
2014-06-15 17:27:35 #595440655:   30000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:64.3526 profit:  -30000
2014-06-15 17:27:55 #595441223:   90000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:41.4607 profit:   90000
2014-06-15 17:28:12 #595441753:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:74.4807 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:28:28 #595442215:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:07.3627 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:28:50 #595442778:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:39.9245 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:28:55 #595442968:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:31.9283 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:28:59 #595443075:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:51.3132 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:29:06 #595443297:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:37.0466 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:29:35 #595444234:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:12.5635 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:29:42 #595444454:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:73.8651 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:29:50 #595444739:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:45.3504 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:29:58 #595444995:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:91.5566 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:30:10 #595445390:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:98.7261 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:30:21 #595445729:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:41.6637 profit:  900000
2014-06-15 17:30:58 #595446919:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:41.5189 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:31:13 #595447392:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:57.8192 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:31:22 #595447698:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:03.7588 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:31:34 #595448067:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:55.4184 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:31:43 #595448338:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:16.3831 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:31:57 #595448821:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:36.5999 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:32:05 #595449055:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:73.6531 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:32:14 #595449336:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:18.5388 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:32:49 #595450472:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:47.1393 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:32:53 #595450598:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:65.4499 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:33:01 #595450861:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:22.1184 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:33:24 #595451163:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:33.5781 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:33:30 #595451292:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:10.4127 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:33:43 #595451616:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:91.9200 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:33:51 #595451873:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:47.0681 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:34:07 #595452256:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:48.3392 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:34:09 #595452345:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:27.4960 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:34:31 #595452999:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:92.5805 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:34:40 #595453290:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:31.0100 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:34:48 #595453551:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:35.3864 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:34:51 #595453653:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:89.6594 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:34:59 #595453918:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:41.1207 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:35:09 #595454218:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:25.4032 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:35:11 #595454302:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:08.0402 profit:  100000
2014-06-15 17:35:14 #595454372:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:88.6940 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:35:21 #595454605:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:24.6167 profit:  300000
2014-06-15 17:35:52 #595455518:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:88.6865 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:36:06 #595455953:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:81.6485 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:36:15 #595456223:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:04.2369 profit:  900000
2014-06-15 17:36:29 #595456587:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:92.9706 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:36:37 #595456852:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:68.2676 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:36:48 #595457225:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:14.1987 profit:  900000
2014-06-15 17:37:11 #595457978:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:90.4205 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:37:22 #595458340:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:99.2401 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:37:30 #595458569:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:75.6436 profit: -900000
2014-06-15 17:37:42 #595458950: 2700000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:23.9777 profit: 2700000
2014-06-15 17:38:56 #595461313: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:88.7511 profit:-1000000
2014-06-15 17:39:08 #595461687: 3000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.5046 profit: 3000000
2014-06-15 17:39:29 #595462352: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:36.8575 profit: 1000000
2014-06-15 17:39:35 #595462542: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:66.6353 profit:-1000000
2014-06-15 17:39:42 #595462794: 3000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:59.6445 profit:-3000000
2014-06-15 17:39:56 #595463234: 9000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:27.3336 profit: 9000000
2014-06-15 17:40:19 #595463950:  100000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:95.8788 profit: -100000
2014-06-15 17:40:34 #595464418:  300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:97.0304 profit: -300000
2014-06-15 17:40:43 #595464717:  900000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:57.1842 profit: -900000
2014-06-15 17:40:50 #595464959: 2700000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:64.3238 profit:-2700000
2014-06-15 17:41:14 #595465741: 8300000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:89.0875 profit:-8300000
2014-06-15 17:41:34 #595466423:    1000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:32.1332 profit:    1000
2014-06-15 17:41:54 #595466933: 6000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:10.7751 profit: 6000000
2014-06-15 17:42:21 #595467803: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:17.8509 profit: 1000000
2014-06-15 17:42:29 #595468034: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:41.4829 profit: 1000000
2014-06-15 17:42:32 #595468099: 1000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:74.5576 profit:-1000000
2014-06-15 17:42:41 #595468392: 3000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:37.8523 profit: 3000000
2014-06-15 17:43:06 #595469101: 4000000 DOGE @ 49.5% lo: lucky:18.9946 profit: 4000000

And here are the gains and losses laid out with one win per line:

100k
-100k 300k
-100k -300k -900k 2.7M
-10k -30k 90k
-100k 300k
100k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
-100k 300k
-100k -300k 900k
100k
-100k 300k
-100k 300k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
-100k 300k
100k
100k
-100k 300k
-100k -300k 900k
-100k -300k 900k
-100k -300k -900k 2.7M
-1M 3M
1M
-1M -3M 9M
-100k -300k -900k -2.7M -8.3M 1k
6M
1M
1M
-1M 3M
4M

Notice how after he hit a bad losing run ("-100k -300k -900k -2.7M -8.3M", 6 lines from the end) he broke with the pattern completely and just started making huge bets to recover.

[itod]

Notice how after he hit a bad losing run ("-100k -300k -900k -2.7M -8.3M", 6 lines from the end) he broke with the pattern completely and just started making huge bets to recover.

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

[dooglus]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

[kuverty]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

You do not have a phone?

[leex1528]

Why is this thread so long? 

Martingale really works.  But, just like any method it works for against time, the longer you play the more likely you are to lose!

[ranochigo]

Why is this thread so long? 

Martingale really works.  But, just like any method it works for against time, the longer you play the more likely you are to lose!

Mainly because of the house edge and a little luck (maybe). I played on PD with high risk martingale before. It worked well for 5 hours and out of nowhere, it suddenly have a long streak of reds.

[dooglus]

Why is this thread so long?

Mostly because I hijacked it and use it as a place to post anecdotes of the Martingales that happen daily on my dice sites.

Here's one from a few hours ago.  In this case it didn't works:



Here's the tail end of the betting:

[PacoMartin]

And now we're sitting between $500 and $600.  Will we be kicking ourselves that we didn't sell before the price dropped to $2 again?  Or because we did sell and the price climbed to $10k?  I don't know...

Well of course if you did know,then you'd have a skill that could make you billions. I like how some of the Bitcoin owners post about converting to "fiat". They've turned the tables so that the state sponsored currency seems like the vaporware.

I am reminded of the anti-digit dialing league that was formed to protest area codes in the late 1940's. They found this new system dehumanizing. It is amazing how a new system can create so many fears.


Electronic transactions raise primal fears that the government will be able to trace our every move. Bitcoins remind the world that transactions can be both electronic and anonymous.

Sweden still seems to be the world leader in society rejection of physical currency. They have a mere 2250 ATM's in their entire country of 9.5 million people. Recently the entire system went down twice, and almost no one noticed. I think it is just a matter of time before they use crypto-currency techniques to develop a state sponsored currency that is both electronic and anonymous. Sweden has the equivalent of US$12 billion in currency circulating (on the same order of magnitude as Bitcoin). When the first government converts, it should do a lot to legitimize Bitcoin in the eyes of the world.

[f3tus]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

You do not have a phone?

Indeed. WTF?

[boumalo]

Why is this thread so long?

Mostly because I hijacked it and use it as a place to post anecdotes of the Martingales that happen daily on my dice sites.

Here's one from a few hours ago.  In this case it didn't works:



Here's the tail end of the betting:

His martingale was doing great until it wasn't

And now we're sitting between $500 and $600.  Will we be kicking ourselves that we didn't sell before the price dropped to $2 again?  Or because we did sell and the price climbed to $10k?  I don't know...

Well of course if you did know,then you'd have a skill that could make you billions. I like how some of the Bitcoin owners post about converting to "fiat". They've turned the tables so that the state sponsored currency seems like the vaporware.

I am reminded of the anti-digit dialing league that was formed to protest area codes in the late 1940's. They found this new system dehumanizing. It is amazing how a new system can create so many fears.


Electronic transactions raise primal fears that the government will be able to trace our every move. Bitcoins remind the world that transactions can be both electronic and anonymous.

Sweden still seems to be the world leader in society rejection of physical currency. They have a mere 2250 ATM's in their entire country of 9.5 million people. Recently the entire system went down twice, and almost no one noticed. I think it is just a matter of time before they use crypto-currency techniques to develop a state sponsored currency that is both electronic and anonymous. Sweden has the equivalent of US$12 billion in currency circulating (on the same order of magnitude as Bitcoin). When the first government converts, it should do a lot to legitimize Bitcoin in the eyes of the world.

People were afraid of the train that was said as non eco-friendly and creating unemployment in the diligence business...

Members that have more than 95% of their wealth in Bitcoin and a wealth over 400k should maybe diversify a little bit by buying precious metals or other inflation edged assets

[itod]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

lol Internet Explorer toolbar... It was really a nightmare

[MoneyGod]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

lol Internet Explorer toolbar... It was really a nightmare

Just because of this I never use this Explorer toolbar Is is really a nightmare 

[boumalo]

When in doubt, revert to Nakowa style.

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.

WTF?

lol Internet Explorer toolbar... It was really a nightmare

You should have bought a phone just so nokowa could reach you 24/7

[tuanvie]

simple.
advantage when you are looking for a new start, and after you have enough sense to not push further,
stop and withdraw all funds and the advantages that you have to

[boumalo]

simple.
advantage when you are looking for a new start, and after you have enough sense to not push further,
stop and withdraw all funds and the advantages that you have to

Why not make one big bet then? You have better odds