Does martingale really works?

[PacoMartin]

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.
WTF?

Based on his comments, he thinks you owe him since he was the biggest advertisement of JD. Maybe he was just coming to collect.

[–]earthmoonsun
1. Do you just gamble online or also in 'real' casinos?
2. What is most rewarding in winning: getting more money or beating the system or revenge?

[–]nakowa-allover
I'm not a gambler as you might think. (BTW: What happened to me and what I did seem to be extraordinary to others, and it's the very reason that I can hardly explain anything clearly and convincingly to others.)
Both. But there's no revenge at all. I always say I respect dooglus and his work.

[–]M_R_KLYE
You technically are a gambler.. You have rolled the dice.. In saying that though I see no wrong with it. I roll the dice too!

[–]nakowa-allover
YES, technically. And now mentally too, it's truly addictive. I have to find a way to get over it.

[–]M_R_KLYE
I think it is the same as any addiction.. One must step away and not do it.
BTW good show with those 100BTC bets.. you are crazy!

[–]earthmoonsun
But, are you not about to destroy his work? What do you think need to be changed on JD to keep it profitable?

[–]nakowa-allover
Why do you think I'm destroying his work?
Can't you realize that I'm in effect the biggest advertisement of JD?
1% house edge should be raised, it's truly dangerous (which I once tried to persuade dooglus).
Max Profit might well lower a little bit?

http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

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[boumalo]

I had a dream last night that nakowa called me on the phone (I don't have a phone) and asked if I could meet him in Paris to show him how to pin his Internet Explorer toolbar to the edge of the screen on his tablet.
WTF?

Based on his comments, he thinks you owe him since he was the biggest advertisement of JD. Maybe he was just coming to collect.

[–]earthmoonsun
1. Do you just gamble online or also in 'real' casinos?
2. What is most rewarding in winning: getting more money or beating the system or revenge?

[–]nakowa-allover
I'm not a gambler as you might think. (BTW: What happened to me and what I did seem to be extraordinary to others, and it's the very reason that I can hardly explain anything clearly and convincingly to others.)
Both. But there's no revenge at all. I always say I respect dooglus and his work.

[–]M_R_KLYE
You technically are a gambler.. You have rolled the dice.. In saying that though I see no wrong with it. I roll the dice too!

[–]nakowa-allover
YES, technically. And now mentally too, it's truly addictive. I have to find a way to get over it.

[–]M_R_KLYE
I think it is the same as any addiction.. One must step away and not do it.
BTW good show with those 100BTC bets.. you are crazy!

[–]earthmoonsun
But, are you not about to destroy his work? What do you think need to be changed on JD to keep it profitable?

[–]nakowa-allover
Why do you think I'm destroying his work?
Can't you realize that I'm in effect the biggest advertisement of JD?
1% house edge should be raised, it's truly dangerous (which I once tried to persuade dooglus).
Max Profit might well lower a little bit?

http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

It is very incoherent to state that he has a method and he is not a gambler thus he is ev>0 and he will not destroyed JD

He is a gambler and he won a lot; max bet is 255BTC it might entice him to play again on JD

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

[dooglus]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

[Wardrick]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

[ranochigo]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

[PacoMartin]

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

Over a course of time the large bets arrive as there is no single day when less than 900 coin was wagered. February 14, 2014 was the last time 26K BTC was wagered in a single day with all days in 2014 below 30K per day.

Only two days in 2013 when wagers have gone above 200K BTC  in a single day. September 23, and 29 of 2013 where total gambling hit 385K and over 1.5 million BTC respectfully.

Removing the two big days, there is an average of over 9K per day over the course of the year.

[cech4204a]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

[boumalo]

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

Over a course of time the large bets arrive as there is no single day when less than 900 coin was wagered. February 14, 2014 was the last time 26K BTC was wagered in a single day with all days in 2014 below 30K per day.

Only two days in 2013 when wagers have gone above 200K BTC  in a single day. September 23, and 29 of 2013 where total gambling hit 385K and over 1.5 million BTC respectfully.

Removing the two big days, there is an average of over 9K per day over the course of the year.

Yes but if you take the last 2months or even the last 3months it is way less

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

And no even an affiliate link

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

JD would benefit from having an auto betting system

[RedDiamond]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

Maybe you should try next time the reverse martingale (or paroli): http://www.silveroakcasino.com/blog/online-casino/the-reverse-martingale-paroli-betting-strategy.html

[ranochigo]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

JD would benefit from having an auto betting system

Theoretically, yes. But it would only create spams from users betting dust.

[ranochigo]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

Maybe you should try next time the reverse martingale (or paroli): http://www.silveroakcasino.com/blog/online-casino/the-reverse-martingale-paroli-betting-strategy.html

It won't work, you cannot correctly predict that you will win on the next bet, you can win for a lot of bets and keep on doubling but there will be one bet which will lose and you might never be able to get back your loss.

[boumalo]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

JD would benefit from having an auto betting system

Theoretically, yes. But it would only create spams from users betting dust.

You don't see bet of 1BTC every minute but big gamblers are on JD on a daily basis, extreme martingale players and whales play on JD

Dust betting bring more revenue than it cost in band switch so it is profitable

[ranochigo]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

JD would benefit from having an auto betting system

Theoretically, yes. But it would only create spams from users betting dust.

You don't see bet of 1BTC every minute but big gamblers are on JD on a daily basis, extreme martingale players and whales play on JD

Dust betting bring more revenue than it cost in band switch so it is profitable

Yes, it would induce more dust bet, slowing the server down. Most big players wouldn't want to use the auto bet.

[RedDiamond]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

Maybe you should try next time the reverse martingale (or paroli): http://www.silveroakcasino.com/blog/online-casino/the-reverse-martingale-paroli-betting-strategy.html

It won't work, you cannot correctly predict that you will win on the next bet, you can win for a lot of bets and keep on doubling but there will be one bet which will lose and you might never be able to get back your loss.

As stated in the web link you need to set some kind a “walk away” goal (e.g. number of bets, monetary value, the length of playing time) which says when to quit. But anyway if you lose, you just lose your initial bet, not  huge amount money as in normal Martingale.

[boumalo]

BTW is JD affiliated with SwC?

There is a Seals affiliate link in a banner ad at the top of JD.

I like SwC.

But no.

On your site it looks like a lot of really small bets come in. Are those bots or is it actual people betting? I watched for about 10 mins and only saw a couple reasonable sized bets.

I think its partly bot and partly actual people, most people use bot to automate betting at small amounts. And some other people want to do it manually.

JD would benefit from having an auto betting system

Theoretically, yes. But it would only create spams from users betting dust.

You don't see bet of 1BTC every minute but big gamblers are on JD on a daily basis, extreme martingale players and whales play on JD

Dust betting bring more revenue than it cost in band switch so it is profitable

Yes, it would induce more dust bet, slowing the server down. Most big players wouldn't want to use the auto bet.

You can get more band switch, more bets, more fun for players and more profit for the casino owner and investors

[PacoMartin]

I think I have said repeatedly that betting strategies don't change the underlying probability of the game. People remember series of wins and losses, but dice, RNG, and steel balls have no memory. Each trial is independent.

At the same time, I said that it doesn't hurt. While that is true, there is a tendency to work in smaller units with betting strategies.

For instance consider the case of 13BTC and you would like to double before losing your investment. If you flat bet 1BTC at a time, you have a 43.5% chance of doubling before you lose all 13 BTC.

Now a Martingale player may want to play in units of 0.1 BTC so that he has 130 units to play with. At least initially he can go to 6 losses in a row. Now he had only a 7% chance of doubling before going bust.

In this way Martingale could be said not to work, because it encourages the player to use too small of a unit.

[leex1528]

Yes Martingale works, we all know that.. But like many people said, you probably will not double your money...You should probably shoot around 20% profit before you quit...

It is probably the best method you can use though, but I would use with caution..

[zimmah]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

Maybe you should try next time the reverse martingale (or paroli): http://www.silveroakcasino.com/blog/online-casino/the-reverse-martingale-paroli-betting-strategy.html

It won't work, you cannot correctly predict that you will win on the next bet, you can win for a lot of bets and keep on doubling but there will be one bet which will lose and you might never be able to get back your loss.

As stated in the web link you need to set some kind a “walk away” goal (e.g. number of bets, monetary value, the length of playing time) which says when to quit. But anyway if you lose, you just lose your initial bet, not  huge amount money as in normal Martingale.

The problem with martingale is that the walkway goal is exactly the point where you lose your money. As each trade would always earn you 1 time your buyin, but loses much more if you have an unlucky streak.

This adds up rather quickly too, as by the 8th bet or so your already at 128 times your initial bet

[ranochigo]

I did martingale at casino on roulette, i had suffered big loss when 17 black came out and one green in the middle somewhere. Since then i never do martingale again. I lost 250€ that night there and i was unable to bet more, otherwise i would bet more. My 250€ were gone by 14th black.

Maybe you should try next time the reverse martingale (or paroli): http://www.silveroakcasino.com/blog/online-casino/the-reverse-martingale-paroli-betting-strategy.html

It won't work, you cannot correctly predict that you will win on the next bet, you can win for a lot of bets and keep on doubling but there will be one bet which will lose and you might never be able to get back your loss.

As stated in the web link you need to set some kind a “walk away” goal (e.g. number of bets, monetary value, the length of playing time) which says when to quit. But anyway if you lose, you just lose your initial bet, not  huge amount money as in normal Martingale.

Martinfail will eventually bust your bank, lose streaks can be as long as 20, you cannot predict when you will lose and win. If you lose for the first few rounds, you will need some more rounds to recover that, you cannot predict if the remaining rounds will get you back in profit, you can still lose for the next few rounds and your profits will be even deeper into the negative.

[boumalo]

I think I have said repeatedly that betting strategies don't change the underlying probability of the game. People remember series of wins and losses, but dice, RNG, and steel balls have no memory. Each trial is independent.

At the same time, I said that it doesn't hurt. While that is true, there is a tendency to work in smaller units with betting strategies.

For instance consider the case of 13BTC and you would like to double before losing your investment. If you flat bet 1BTC at a time, you have a 43.5% chance of doubling before you lose all 13 BTC.

Now a Martingale player may want to play in units of 0.1 BTC so that he has 130 units to play with. At least initially he can go to 6 losses in a row. Now he had only a 7% chance of doubling before going bust.

In this way Martingale could be said not to work, because it encourages the player to use too small of a unit.

You get better odds doing only one bet, I was discussing it here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=651692.20

"I think I have said repeatedly that betting strategies don't change the underlying probability of the game. People remember series of wins and losses, but dice, RNG, and steel balls have no memory. Each trial is independent."

In a brick and mortar casino you are better off playing the number and color that came out because maybe there is a little flaw that makes them come out more often