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Author Topic: Paranoia or suspicious trade timing  (Read 1145 times)
realnowhereman
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January 26, 2012, 12:05:12 PM
 #1

I accept that the following is bordering on paranoid wibble...

I just noticed, with the large trade that kicked us back up to 5.85 that the timing is suspicious.

It's suspicious because Mt.Gox seem to kill their live feed process (I hear because of a memory leak) once an hour.  The big trade happened seconds before the hour.

Is someone trying to make trades at the exact moment that bots all get disconnected?

Has anyone else noticed what times big trades start?

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ctoon6
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January 28, 2012, 11:58:16 PM
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hint: dont use huge massive exchanges. trade locally or invent new ways to do it like Craigs list.

buck92
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January 30, 2012, 02:07:01 AM
 #3

I accept that the following is bordering on paranoid wibble...

I just noticed, with the large trade that kicked us back up to 5.85 that the timing is suspicious.

It's suspicious because Mt.Gox seem to kill their live feed process (I hear because of a memory leak) once an hour.  The big trade happened seconds before the hour.

Is someone trying to make trades at the exact moment that bots all get disconnected?

Has anyone else noticed what times big trades start?

It seems like MtGox's api disconnects people at every odd hour, most likely to save bandwidth by closing connections to people who would otherwise just keep the api running 24/7 even while not at the computer.

I wouldn't say it is suspicious on MtGox's part, it is just common knowledge that this happens, thus people take advantage of the opportunity. If anything this issue highlights the inherent problems that come about when everybody relies on a single entity to do all their trading, especially in the case of Bitcoin which is supposed to be decentralized.
deepceleron
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January 30, 2012, 03:14:48 AM
 #4

Why does it go up just when I put in a buy order? Pretty suspicious!  Tongue

realnowhereman
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January 30, 2012, 11:33:22 AM
 #5

Is someone trying to make trades at the exact moment that bots all get disconnected?

Has anyone else noticed what times big trades start?

I wouldn't say it is suspicious on MtGox's part, it is just common knowledge that this happens, thus people take advantage of the opportunity. If anything this issue highlights the inherent problems that come about when everybody relies on a single entity to do all their trading, especially in the case of Bitcoin which is supposed to be decentralized.

Sorry; I didn't mean to say it was Mt.Gox.  I was saying that Mt.Gox have implemented a predictable restart schedule and someone big has noticed that and makes a big move just before the predicatable live feed disconnects.  I was also mainly asking for evidence... has anyone else spotted big moves in the 59th minute of the hour?

We should be able to predict that too though: the feeds reset at 12:00 UTC, which is in 30 minutes.  My theory is that a big move (if it's due; it's perfectly possible that the deep pockets aren't buying/selling today) will happen just before 12:00.

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realnowhereman
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January 30, 2012, 12:07:30 PM
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We should be able to predict that too though: the feeds reset at 12:00 UTC, which is in 30 minutes.  My theory is that a big move (if it's due; it's perfectly possible that the deep pockets aren't buying/selling today) will happen just before 12:00.

PREDICTION FAILED.

Ah well.

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rwcp97
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January 30, 2012, 03:23:48 PM
 #7

It seems like MtGox's api disconnects people at every odd hour, most likely to save bandwidth by closing connections to people who would otherwise just keep the api running 24/7 even while not at the computer.

I wouldn't say it is suspicious on MtGox's part, it is just common knowledge that this happens, thus people take advantage of the opportunity. If anything this issue highlights the inherent problems that come about when everybody relies on a single entity to do all their trading, especially in the case of Bitcoin which is supposed to be decentralized.

This isn't true for my bot.
Often I don't get any more livefeeds after some time, but this happens after 10+ hours. I also don't get disconnected, there is just no more data coming through. If I close the connection and reconnect, it's working for many hours again.
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