Raystonn's BTC/USD Probability Forecast

[Raystonn]

These forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book.

I will track profitability by showing profits for 5 systems using these signals, starting at USD$1.00:
1) Holding 100% of the account long forever.
2) Trading 100% of the account long or short depending on which probability is greater than 50%.
3) Same as #2 but shorting is not allowed.  Will go flat instead of short.
4) Trading 100% of the account long (up > 66.6%), short (down > 66.6%), or flat (neither is > 66.6%).
5) Same as #4 but shorting is not allowed.  Will go flat instead of short.

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First forecast:

Current price: $448.69

Forecast until my next post:
    81.9% probability of going up.
    18.1% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $453.00

Forecast until my next post:
    60.5% probability of going up.
    39.5% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $455.40

Forecast until my next post:
    76.3% probability of going up.
    23.7% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

These regular forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book.  I will track accuracy based on the percentages given and the market movement after the prediction.

For purposes of tracking profitability of the calls, I will assume we started with $1 and invested it completely based on the probability.  If I show a 75% probability of going up and 25% going down, then the full amount of the virtual account is invested 75% long and 25% short.  This effectively means the account is flat if the probabilities are 50% up and 50% down.

[Raystonn]

These regular forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book.  I will track accuracy based on the percentages given and the market movement after the prediction.

For purposes of tracking profitability of the calls, I will assume we started with $1 and invested it completely based on the probability.  If I show a 75% probability of going up and 25% going down, then the full amount of the virtual account is invested 75% long and 25% short.  This effectively means the account is flat if the probabilities are 50% up and 50% down.

I need to clarify what happens with a net short position:  Should the probability of going down exceed the probability of going up, the virtual account will be net short.  This will be done at leverage appropriate such that profit on a $1 drop when short will equal profit on a $1 rise when long.

[K128kevin2]

How are you making predictions? Those seem like very specific figures, which leads me to believe you are using some sort of mathematical calculations or software to generate this. I do something similar on my website (www.btcpredictions.com) using artificial neural networks to make predictions. I'm very curious about what you are doing though

[Raystonn]

How are you making predictions? Those seem like very specific figures, which leads me to believe you are using some sort of mathematical calculations or software to generate this. I do something similar on my website (www.btcpredictions.com) using artificial neural networks to make predictions. I'm very curious about what you are doing though

It's definitely mathematical.  I could code it up, as it's purely mechanical.  But right now it's so simple I haven't bothered.

[K128kevin2]

It's definitely mathematical.  I could code it up, as it's purely mechanical.  But right now it's so simple I haven't bothered.

I mean what is the general method that you are using? You don't have to go into the details of the specific implementation.

[Raystonn]

I mean what is the general method that you are using? You don't have to go into the details of the specific implementation.

As stated in the first post, the method is "based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book".  So it's based on the sitting orders, and not specifically on the price action of trade executions.

[K128kevin2]

As stated in the first post, the method is "based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book".  So it's based on the sitting orders, and not specifically on the price action of trade executions.

lol dude this is not an answer to my question at all. If you don't want to say the method you are using then you can just say that, even though that would be ridiculous. You saying that you make predictions based on the order book is like me saying that I make predictions based on past prices. If nobody has any idea how you are coming up with these predictions, nobody is going to take them remotely seriously. What technique are you using to make predictions? You get data from the order book, but what do you do with it?

[Raystonn]

I haven't yet decided if I will be sharing implementation details of my method.  I will come back to this question later.

[K128kevin2]

I haven't yet decided if I will be sharing implementation details of my method.  I will come back to this question later.

Like I said, you don't have to share the details. With my predictions I use artificial neural networks. The specific details of the implementation are not public, but I let people know that the method I am using to make predictions is artificial neural networks. If people have no idea where your numbers are coming from, they won't care about the predictions or take them seriously. For all we know, they are made up randomly.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $491.00

Forecast until my next post:
    36.2% probability of going up.
    63.8% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $486.70
Forecast until my next post:
    56.1% probability of going up.
    43.9% probability of going down.

[bitcoinsrus]

Current price: $486.70
Forecast until my next post:
    56.1% probability of going up.
    43.9% probability of going down.

Raystonn, do you mind me asking exactly what you do to get the # and %?
Your original posts say from stamps order books.  Do you put the numbers on a spreadsheet etc?

[Raystonn]

Current price: $490.99
Forecast until my next post:
    55.8% probability of going up.
    44.2% probability of going down.

[BitchicksHusband]

Current price: $490.99
Forecast until my next post:
    55.8% probability of going up.
    44.2% probability of going down.

Since you are tracking $1, can you give us the current total along with these?  It would be nice to see how much money you have made against buy and hold.

[kireinaha]

Whatever his method is, it seems to be working!

[K128kevin2]

Whatever his method is, it seems to be working!

But also if the time interval is between posts, and his posts aren't made in set intervals, he can just say any prediction and be right by not posting again until the prediction is reflected by btc price

[Raystonn]

Whatever his method is, it seems to be working!

But also if the time interval is between posts, and his posts aren't made in set intervals, he can just say any prediction and be right by not posting again until the prediction is reflected by btc price

So you're saying I just wait until the price goes my way?  My last call is profitable already, and has been for quite a while.  If you like you can look at a chart and the time of my posts for the other calls.  I think you'll find no huge negative excursions.