Raystonn's BTC/USD Probability Forecast

[Raystonn]

Current price: $492.20
Forecast until my next post:
    61.6% probability of going up.
    38.4% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $498.53
Forecast until my next post:
    55.3% probability of going up.
    44.7% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Systems:
I will track profitability by showing profits for 4 systems using these signals, plus 1 that just holds long.  The accounts will start with USD$1.00:
1) Holding 100% of the account long forever.
2) Trading 100% of the account long or short depending on which probability is greater than 50%.
3) Same as #2 but shorting is not allowed.  Will go flat instead of short.
4) Trading 100% of the account long (up > 66.6%), short (down > 66.6%), or flat (neither is > 66.6%).
5) Same as #4 but shorting is not allowed.  Will go flat instead of short.

Results:
Here are my first 8 forecasts:

Price at forecast: $448.69.  Forecast: 81.9% prob of up, 18.1% prob of down
Price at forecast: $453.00.  Forecast: 60.5% prob of up, 39.5% prob of down
Price at forecast: $455.40.  Forecast: 76.3% prob of up, 23.7% prob of down
Price at forecast: $491.00.  Forecast: 36.2% prob of up, 63.8% prob of down
Price at forecast: $486.70.  Forecast: 56.1% prob of up, 43.9% prob of down
Price at forecast: $490.99.  Forecast: 55.8% prob of up, 44.2% prob of down
Price at forecast: $492.20.  Forecast: 61.6% prob of up, 38.4% prob of down
Price at forecast: $498.53.  Forecast: 55.3% prob of up, 44.7% prob of down

All systems initially bought in with 1/448.69 BTC.

Current Account Values as of Last Prediction:
System 1: Account at $1.11.  [Held BTC long forever.  Account value is: $498.53/448.69 ($1.1110789186297889411397624194878)]
System 2: Account at $1.13.  [Long from 448.69 to 491.00, short from 491.00 to 486.70, long from 486.70 to 498.53.  Profit is $58.44 per BTC, or 58.44/448.69 ($0.13024582674006552408121420134168)]
System 3: Account at $1.12.  [Long from 448.69 to 491.00, long from 486.70 to 498.53.  Profit is $54.14 per BTC, or 54.14/448.69 ($0.12066237268492723261048831041476)]
System 4: Account at $1.09.  [Long from 448.69 to 453.00, long from 455.40 to 491.00.  Profit is $39.91 per BTC, or 39.91/448.69 ($0.08894782589315563083643495509149)]
System 5: Account at $1.09.  [Long from 448.69 to 453.00, long from 455.40 to 491.00.  Profit is $39.91 per BTC, or 39.91/448.69 ($0.08894782589315563083643495509149)]

[Raystonn]

Current price: $494.52
Forecast until my next post:
    59.5% probability of going up.
    40.5% probability of going down.

Current Account Values as of Last Prediction:
System 1: Account at $1.10.  [Held BTC long forever.  Account value is: $494.52/448.69 ($1.1021417905458111390938064142281)]
System 2: Account at $1.12.  [Long from 498.53 to 494.52.  Loss from trade is $4.01 per BTC, or 4.01/448.69 ($0.00893712808397780204595600525976)]
System 3: Account at $1.11.  [Long from 498.53 to 494.52.  Loss from trade is $4.01 per BTC, or 4.01/448.69 ($0.00893712808397780204595600525976)]
System 4: Account at $1.09.  [Flat]
System 5: Account at $1.09.  [Flat]

[K128kevin2]

So you're saying I just wait until the price goes my way?  My last call is profitable already, and has been for quite a while.  If you like you can look at a chart and the time of my posts for the other calls.  I think you'll find no huge negative excursions.

You really are fundamentally misunderstanding what I'm saying. I never said that you wait until the price goes your way, and I've made it very clear that I am not saying that. The obvious point that I made was that we don't know what you do to come up with these numbers and because we have no idea what you do, your predictions are meaningless. And as I said before, you don't have to tell us. Just know that nobody will care about your predictions or take them seriously unless you say where these numbers are coming from. Not many people are going to come here and trust you blindly.

[Raystonn]

we don't know what you do to come up with these numbers

No, you don't.  Trading system information is considered proprietary in the markets.  If I gave out the basis of my systems to everyone they would quickly stop working as everyone used them with tweaks to front-run all the others.  Working systems tend not to last forever.  Working systems whose mechanics are released into the wild tend not to work past the end of the week.  You can choose to ignore the systems, or you can look at track record to assess.  This is how it's done in the real world.  Welcome to Wall Street, Bitcoin.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $522.00
Forecast until my next post:
    51.5% probability of going up.
    48.5% probability of going down.

[BitchicksHusband]

Current price: $522.00
Forecast until my next post:
    51.5% probability of going up.
    48.5% probability of going down.

Thanks for the account tracking.  It makes this thread more interesting.

And it's very impressive that you are (so far) 100% correct.  I assume you would show us if you were wrong and aren't hiding those, right?

[Raystonn]

Current price: $529.54
Forecast until my next post:
    54.0% probability of going up.
    46.0% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $522.00
Forecast until my next post:
    51.5% probability of going up.
    48.5% probability of going down.

Thanks for the account tracking.  It makes this thread more interesting.

And it's very impressive that you are (so far) 100% correct.  I assume you would show us if you were wrong and aren't hiding those, right?

I have one loss in there.  But it's small.  I post the current price at time of post.  So it's all as verifiable as Bitcoin's ledger.

[K128kevin2]

we don't know what you do to come up with these numbers

No, you don't.  Trading system information is considered proprietary in the markets.  If I gave out the basis of my systems to everyone they would quickly stop working as everyone used them with tweaks to front-run all the others.  Working systems tend not to last forever.  Working systems whose mechanics are released into the wild tend not to work past the end of the week.  You can choose to ignore the systems, or you can look at track record to assess.  This is how it's done in the real world.  Welcome to Wall Street, Bitcoin.

Actually this is false and that is not how it's done in the real world. Furthermore, as I've stated, I'm not asking for the details of how you make predictions - I'm asking for the general method. My website uses neural networks to make predictions. What do you use to make predictions?

Furthermore, if you don't make posts in set time intervals that are always 100% the same, then your predictions are meaningless and wrong. You can post anything and be correct if your next post comes at the right time.

And even furthermore, literally every single one of the predictions you have made has involved the higher probability price movement occurring, which is actually extremely improbable, meaning that the percent chances that you are giving are actually inaccurate. It's like if you say there is a 60% chance of x being true when you randomize its value to true or false, and you do this 100 times and it is true every time, you were almost definitely wrong in initially saying there was a 60% chance of x being true.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $525.55
Forecast until my next post:
    66.7% probability of going up.
    33.3% probability of going down.

[BitchicksHusband]

Any update on your dollar amounts?  That's the part of the thread I find most interesting.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $575.00
Forecast until my next post:
    35.8% probability of going up.
    64.2% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Any update on your dollar amounts?  That's the part of the thread I find most interesting.

I'll update that later today.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $570.92
Forecast until my next post:
    49.1% probability of going up.
    50.9% probability of going down.

[Raystonn]

Current price: $566.10
Forecast until my next post:
    60.0% probability of going up.
    40.0% probability of going down.

[BTCtrader71]

How are you setting the time interval between forecasts?

[Raystonn]

I don't.  The market does.  When conditions change, I report it.

[BTCtrader71]

Conditions are always changing. If the price has moved against your prediction, do you report that? Or do you wait for the fluctuation to swing in your favor?

Let me illustrate: Suppose that at 1 pm, the price is at $570, and Alice and Bob disagree on the next price movement. Alice says: 99% chance up before my next forecast, 1% chance down. Bob says: 99% chance down before my next forecast, 1% chance up. Reality: at 2 pm, the price is at $575, at which time Alice declares that her prediction was correct and she gives her next forecast. Then at 6 pm the price hits $565, at which time Bob declares that his prediction was correct and he gives his next forecast.