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Author Topic: I can't believe the margin traders haven't liquidated.  (Read 2780 times)
Vandroiy
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January 27, 2012, 12:42:20 AM
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The Bitcoinica * means that the margin traders are still fully in on leveraged, doesn't it?

I've been joking about it in a few threads, but really, what? Why/how? Getting force-liquidated means no control of the situation in which it happens, and even if a temporary bounce happens, the contest with day-traders and one another would be really hard.

How come I still see the *? Did really nobody liquidate? Or do new traders jump in on the reserves whenever one liquidates?

Edit: The situation now is strange. Sometimes, buyers come at such a time, so delaying liquidating can work... but only if the people who would buy don't see it coming and pull out. If a large trader dumps, the losses will be gigantic. How will this end, I don't know. Much less why they allowed it to get to this point.

Huh
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Blitz­
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January 27, 2012, 12:44:22 AM
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I’m inclined to believe it. Why? They aren’t traders, they are gamblers. They want the casino to hit jackpot or lose their bet.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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proudhon
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January 27, 2012, 12:48:02 AM
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I’m inclined to believe it. Why? They aren’t traders, they are gamblers. They want the casino to hit jackpot or lose their bet.

Bingo.  We all thought that online gambling institutions would adopt bitcoin.  We were wrong.  Bitcoin became online gambling.  Thanks bitcoinica!
M4v3R
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January 27, 2012, 12:56:44 AM
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The Bitcoinica * means that the margin traders are still fully in on leveraged, doesn't it?

I've been joking about it in a few threads, but really, what? Why/how? Getting force-liquidated means no control of the situation in which it happens, and even if a temporary bounce happens, the contest with day-traders and one another would be really hard.

How come I still see the *? Did really nobody liquidate? Or do new traders jump in on the reserves whenever one liquidates?

It may be simpler than you think. The asterisk didn't show up immediately when people placed their longs, many of them in the $6.2 - $6.4 range, and some of them a little below $6.0. But when the price started to fall, more people got on the long train and they immediately started to lose on those positions. That's also when the asterisk appeared, but then it was too late.

When money is at stake, 90% of time people won't cut their losses but hope for the price to rise so they can exit with profits. So they wait, but the price instead goes down little more, and the asterisk is preventing it from going up. After certain period of time people with highly leveraged positions either exit in panic with big losses (which results in sell offs, driving the price further down) or are force liquidated (which results in even more sell offs).

So there you have it.

Edit: How it will end? No one can know for sure. But... We already saw this ending once:



I'm usually bullish, but for me, we are again just before a big dip down. $4.63 (previous low) is the target.
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January 27, 2012, 01:00:02 AM
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I would hazard at 90 percent of the leverage available is tied up permanently with mr money bags..

We are all fighting over a small amount of levy.

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Vandroiy
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January 27, 2012, 01:10:13 AM
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M4v3R: Both exiting in panic and being force liquidated would make the * disappear, right?

But it is still there. So either new players jump in to buy on margin, or the panic/force exits did not happen so far -- they're still maxed out, no reduction. This is pretty extreme. Unless Bitcoinica added the asterisk for the lulz. Tongue

So... whatever situation triggers the margin traders to liquidate has a large influence now? Well, that's reassuring... Roll Eyes

I would hazard at 90 percent of the leverage available is tied up permanently with mr money bags..

We are all fighting over a small amount of levy.

Whoever it is lacks the money to pay the buy himself, or else there would be no need for leverage. There is a point or situation at which these coins return. And the drop right now should be very dangerous to any leveraged long position, so I don't think we're far off.



Edit:
$4.63 (previous low) is the target.

4.64 it was. Feels good to have the peak order, and get it named as target too. Grin
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January 27, 2012, 01:20:37 AM
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M4v3R: Both exiting in panic and being force liquidated would make the * disappear, right?

But it is still there. So either new players jump in to buy on margin, or the panic/force exits did not happen so far -- they're still maxed out, no reduction. This is pretty extreme. Unless Bitcoinica added the asterisk for the lulz. Tongue

So... whatever situation triggers the margin traders to liquidate has a large influence now? Well, that's reassuring... Roll Eyes

I would hazard at 90 percent of the leverage available is tied up permanently with mr money bags..

We are all fighting over a small amount of levy.

Whoever it is lacks the money to pay the buy himself, or else there would be no need for leverage. There is a point or situation at which these coins return. And the drop right now should be very dangerous to any leveraged long position, so I don't think we're far off.

Bitcoinica is showing its cards..

Huge advantage since its trading to mtgox...

They are everywhere!, it could be you! :O

lol Smiley

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M4v3R
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January 27, 2012, 01:27:42 AM
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M4v3R: Both exiting in panic and being force liquidated would make the * disappear, right?

But it is still there. So either new players jump in to buy on margin, or the panic/force exits did not happen so far -- they're still maxed out, no reduction. This is pretty extreme. Unless Bitcoinica added the asterisk for the lulz. Tongue

My best guess is that the action didn't start yet. We have seen one big dump in past few hours, but it wasn't tied to Bitcoinica. It was sudden and came out of nowhere - someone just decided to dump his coins on MtGox and cash out.

The asterisk is still there, because the real action is ahead of us. Exciting times Smiley.

PS. of course it CAN end up peacefully in another way - Bitcoinica gets more reserves (Zhou gets them somehow or many people deposit USDs on them). The latter is now unlikely, because of coming weekend, though.
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January 27, 2012, 01:35:28 AM
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Just a couple of weeks of diminishing correction...


Then we get some fun times..

But right now the game is rigged, lets see how low we can go!

Grab your coins cheap! hahaha

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Vandroiy
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January 27, 2012, 01:47:03 AM
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Trades at 5.29.

The asterisk is still there.

WHAT IS THIS I DON'T EVEN
M4v3R
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January 27, 2012, 01:53:34 AM
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I think we should expect some force liquidations past $5.2 and then $5.0. Now what we see is calm before the storm Smiley.
Vandroiy
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January 27, 2012, 02:06:31 AM
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I think we should expect some force liquidations past $5.2 and then $5.0. Now what we see is calm before the storm Smiley.

Unless they do the Super Mario bounce.

In that case, we're left with an illiquid and unstable configuration. I have little doubt it would just crash again, but in a different way and possibly with a huge delay in between. That would be a very annoying outcome, probably not good for both my head and the pockets of the people who pushed things down this road. Also, it would lengthen the bust, which in turn could hurt Bitcoin as a whole. It's a pain, so I'd prefer the way that keeps us sane and healthy.

Let's end it. End it here and save us another round of this. The leverage party has been on crack for a month now, it's high time. Let it go.
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January 27, 2012, 02:09:41 AM
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Super Mario bounce.
They’ll fall in a gap. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-3XbeRzISc

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January 27, 2012, 02:16:49 AM
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Let's end it. End it here and save us another round of this. The leverage party has been on crack for a month now, it's high time. Let it go.
This. Someone mercy kill the leveraged bulls. You could even do it via Bitcoinica itself, they still allow 10:1 for smaller funds (use multiple accounts).

Bomber Bitcoinica, do it again!

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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January 27, 2012, 02:19:24 AM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGF1NP-FrCU

Vandroiy
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January 27, 2012, 02:39:28 AM
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You could even do it via Bitcoinica itself, they still allow 10:1 for smaller funds (use multiple accounts).

Uhm... that'll be upspike Bitcoinica in addition to bomber Bitcoinica. How about we just do things the old-fashioned way, by trading with money we actually own?

We don't want them matching shorts with longs and somehow enabling even more margin trading... that wouldn't exactly help. Roll Eyes

Edit: The asterisk is gone! So at least something happened.
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January 27, 2012, 03:01:22 AM
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Edit: The asterisk is gone! So at least something happened.

Buy & Sell are both cats-arsed starfished atm

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January 27, 2012, 03:03:22 AM
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Edit: The asterisk is gone! So at least something happened.

Buy & Sell are both cats-arsed starfished atm

Neither one is starfished right now.
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January 27, 2012, 03:07:24 AM
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Neither one is starfished right now.

Blink and its there. Blink again and its gone.

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January 27, 2012, 03:29:57 AM
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What kind of idiot went long after the 17th?!  I hope the long squeeze has stopped now, this is ridiculous Angry

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