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Electricbees
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January 27, 2012, 07:08:16 AM
 #41

i dont get it. like there was a huuuge ask wall at 5.20 and like 0 bid walls till like 4.50 so i panic sold all my coins at 5.19 then right after that happens it jumps up to 5.49 .   THE MANIPULATOR HATES ME!!!!
This. I fucking did this too.

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January 27, 2012, 07:23:54 AM
 #42

Hey.  Quick idea... Don't short sell!!!

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January 27, 2012, 07:34:21 AM
 #43

Hey.  Quick idea... Don't short sell!!!

-EP

+1... Stampeding in one direction won't solve the volatility issues everyone seems to be worried about.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 27, 2012, 07:42:29 AM
 #44

I've taken on about $2k of paper losses from the top... Sad
How about you?

(by the way, these are paper losses... I got in at $2.  Also, I never trade, because I always manage to screw myself when I do.)
I have seen personally seen much bigger losses than that, just to see them regained 48 hours later.

It's the nature of BTC, and it should not scare of the traders who are currently on board.

BTC (at the moment) is very similar to gold, when it comes to swings.

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January 27, 2012, 07:44:34 AM
 #45

I'll never get out.  I don't trade.  Everything I have in this is play money Smiley
11k play money? You’ve got too much of it. Grin
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January 27, 2012, 08:07:02 AM
 #46

Hey.  Quick idea... Don't short sell!!!

-EP

Better idea, don't panic.  I see this all the time in bitcoin - a small (50%) price movement and people get worried.  Wait until you start doing forwards (futures).
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January 27, 2012, 08:14:04 AM
 #47

Hey.  Quick idea... Don't short sell!!!

-EP

Better idea, don't panic.  I see this all the time in bitcoin - a small (50%) price movement and people get worried.  Wait until you start doing forwards (futures).
The problem now are bitcoinica cascading forced liquidations - if that happens again it can drive the price down very quickly and at this point is is quite probable because we are close to the recent bottom and the star was on the buy button well into 5.4 prices.
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January 27, 2012, 08:21:39 AM
 #48


The problem now are bitcoinica cascading forced liquidations - if that happens again it can drive the price down very quickly and at this point is is quite probable because we are close to the recent bottom and the star was on the buy button well into 5.4 prices.

Indeed. I think if we go < $5 the price will tumble.

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January 27, 2012, 08:31:51 AM
 #49

Well... I just have about 30 bitcoins left... the rest I sold @ 5.75... hoping for this to go lower so I can rebuy cheap... I made a $500 profit with what I sold... so, not bad.
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January 27, 2012, 11:07:14 AM
 #50

Not selling a single BTC. Buying more if it drops really low. Nothing has fundamentally changed to not be bullish about Bitcoin long term, there have been some confidence breakers recently but nothing compared to what we had after the big bubble. I will ride this one out and see you on the other side. That could be in 3 months, 6 months or 12 months. Doesn't matter.

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January 27, 2012, 11:13:40 AM
 #51

Not selling a single BTC. Buying more if it drops really low. Nothing has fundamentally changed to not be bullish about Bitcoin long term, there have been some confidence breakers recently but nothing compared to what we had after the big bubble. I will ride this one out and see you on the other side. That could be in 3 months, 6 months or 12 months. Doesn't matter.

I did quite well in the last half a year  doing the opposite to what you were advising: selling when you were so enthusiastic and then buying when you started posting more balanced notes.
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January 27, 2012, 11:14:55 AM
 #52

Not selling a single BTC. Buying more if it drops really low. Nothing has fundamentally changed to not be bullish about Bitcoin long term, there have been some confidence breakers recently but nothing compared to what we had after the big bubble. I will ride this one out and see you on the other side. That could be in 3 months, 6 months or 12 months. Doesn't matter.

I did quite well in the last half a year  doing the opposite to what you were advising: selling when you were so enthusiastic and then buying when you started posting more balanced notes.
SHHH, you’re screwing up my contrarian indicators!
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January 27, 2012, 11:41:55 AM
 #53

I did quite well in the last half a year  doing the opposite to what you were advising: selling when you were so enthusiastic and then buying when you started posting more balanced notes.
I did quite well too and I'm still doing well. I made a lot of BTC going down because I eventually gave in and now I'm long from $2.3. Traditionally long of course, haven't used Bitcoinica and I never will. I did buy some more at $5.x going up but that was with less money, my average entry point is still very good at these prices.

The reason I'm doing nothing is not that I don't think that the price can't go down from where it currently is, I just don't see the fundamentals for a bigger crash. If we go below $4 I might start to think differently but we'll see about that then. I give that kind of a drop a low probability and I don't want to take the stress of selling now and then having to look at the charts all the time and think about the point of re-entry.

One of my favorite indicators which is the network transaction count, has been very healthy in the past weeks. Hasn't dropped very low for a single day and is showing an uptrend. That's in part due to the fact that panicking people are depositing coins to exchanges but still, I see no sign of a fundamental decline. I think of this as a correction in an overly aggressive uptrend. The uptrend will continue once the correction is over so I don't really have anything to worry about.

Right now I simply think that I have less stress from looking at a weaker long position at a possible $4.x than I would have if I sold and had to look for a re-entry point. If I had more money invested in Bitcoin my view could be different but I honestly haven't invested anything I can't afford to lose.

Prasos operates Denarium, Coinmotion and Bittiraha.fi. We have an equity offering now live! Check our pitch and invest at Invesdor.
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January 27, 2012, 06:10:48 PM
 #54

I did quite well in the last half a year  doing the opposite to what you were advising: selling when you were so enthusiastic and then buying when you started posting more balanced notes.
I did quite well too and I'm still doing well. I made a lot of BTC going down because I eventually gave in and now I'm long from $2.3. Traditionally long of course, haven't used Bitcoinica and I never will. I did buy some more at $5.x going up but that was with less money, my average entry point is still very good at these prices.

The reason I'm doing nothing is not that I don't think that the price can't go down from where it currently is, I just don't see the fundamentals for a bigger crash. If we go below $4 I might start to think differently but we'll see about that then. I give that kind of a drop a low probability and I don't want to take the stress of selling now and then having to look at the charts all the time and think about the point of re-entry.

One of my favorite indicators which is the network transaction count, has been very healthy in the past weeks. Hasn't dropped very low for a single day and is showing an uptrend. That's in part due to the fact that panicking people are depositing coins to exchanges but still, I see no sign of a fundamental decline. I think of this as a correction in an overly aggressive uptrend. The uptrend will continue once the correction is over so I don't really have anything to worry about.

Right now I simply think that I have less stress from looking at a weaker long position at a possible $4.x than I would have if I sold and had to look for a re-entry point. If I had more money invested in Bitcoin my view could be different but I honestly haven't invested anything I can't afford to lose.

Fundamentals don't matter to short term prices.  Also, you didn't see the fundamentals last time either for a big crash Wink

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January 27, 2012, 07:36:21 PM
 #55

Fundamentals don't matter to short term prices.  Also, you didn't see the fundamentals last time either for a big crash Wink
I agree that fundamentals don't matter to short term prices. That's why I rarely do anything short term. As far as seeing the fundamentals last time, I did eventually. Later than many others but not as late as some of us.

Still it's important to understand that long term players who never sold during the big crash are still fine. They will always be fine as long as there is at least a glimmer of hope in Bitcoin's future. I see a lot more than a glimmer so I'm not worried at all.

Prasos operates Denarium, Coinmotion and Bittiraha.fi. We have an equity offering now live! Check our pitch and invest at Invesdor.
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January 27, 2012, 08:31:34 PM
 #56

Fundamentals don't matter to short term prices.  Also, you didn't see the fundamentals last time either for a big crash Wink
I agree that fundamentals don't matter to short term prices. That's why I rarely do anything short term. As far as seeing the fundamentals last time, I did eventually. Later than many others but not as late as some of us.

Still it's important to understand that long term players who never sold during the big crash are still fine. They will always be fine as long as there is at least a glimmer of hope in Bitcoin's future. I see a lot more than a glimmer so I'm not worried at all.

My fundamental analysis from last summer was way off.  I would not have believed it could have gotten down to $2.00 absent a system failure, and not even close.  For this reason, my confidence in my own ability to estimate the lows that can be plumbed remains weak.  So, I'm ready for anything...including that my fundamental analysis could be low on the upside as well.

Fortunatly I always considered Bitcoin to be a long-shot with a high probability of total loss and a outside possibility for enormous gain (years down the road, and not limited to monetary gain) thus any money I put in I considered disposable.  That remains the case, and it was thus not difficult for me to hold everything I have ever had (except for a tiny bit of hour-by-hour exploitation of Tradehill artifacts.)  I also had no inclination to cash out when I could have done so at a profit (which is not the case at this moment.)


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January 27, 2012, 09:07:08 PM
 #57

My fundamental analysis from last summer was way off.  I would not have believed it could have gotten down to $2.00 absent a system failure, and not even close.  For this reason, my confidence in my own ability to estimate the lows that can be plumbed remains weak.

I remember telling people that .mp3s were the next big thing in 1993. I also remember saying that Apple was a screaming buy at $4.  Sometimes it takes a while for the market to properly value something...

In my opinion, the best way to value Bitcoin is to think of it as a publicly owned company.  Right now, there are roughtly 8 million bitcoins in existance, with a $5 value.  That's about a 40 million dollar market cap.  You could even go a step further and say that investors have already priced in the roughly 20 million bitcoins that will be in existance.  That would be an estimated 100 million dollar market cap.  Is the Bitcoin idea/network/economy worth 100 million dollars?  In my opinion, it is will be worth far more.

The closest publicly traded company that offers the service that Bitcoin offers is Western Union.  Western Union charges higher fees, isn't anonymous, can't be be claimed from the privacy of your own home, isn't supported by an enormous public network and can't be used as a tax shelter.  Even with all of those shortcomings to Bitcoin, Western Union has a market cap of nearly 12 billion dollars.  If Bitcoin were to be widely accepted 10 years from now, it wouldn't be insane to assume that it would match Western Union's market cap.  For the sake of argument, lets say that Bitcoin did reach the adoption of Western Union.  If Bitcoin were worth 10 billion, that would be $500/BTC...

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January 27, 2012, 09:30:20 PM
 #58

In my opinion, the best way to value Bitcoin is to think of it as a publicly owned company.  Right now, there are roughtly 8 million bitcoins in existance, with a $5 value.  That's about a 40 million dollar market cap.  You could even go a step further and say that investors have already priced in the roughly 20 million bitcoins that will be in existance.  That would be an estimated 100 million dollar market cap.  Is the Bitcoin idea/network/economy worth 100 million dollars?  In my opinion, it is will be worth far more.

The closest publicly traded company that offers the service that Bitcoin offers is Western Union.  Western Union charges higher fees, isn't anonymous, can't be be claimed from the privacy of your own home, isn't supported by an enormous public network and can't be used as a tax shelter.  Even with all of those shortcomings to Bitcoin, Western Union has a market cap of nearly 12 billion dollars.  If Bitcoin were to be widely accepted 10 years from now, it wouldn't be insane to assume that it would match Western Union's market cap.  For the sake of argument, lets say that Bitcoin did reach the adoption of Western Union.  If Bitcoin were worth 10 billion, that would be $500/BTC...
+1

The market cap is indeed one of the best fundamental indicators you can possible use when it comes to Bitcoin. It gives a solid idea of what Bitcoin could be worth now and what it could possibly be worth in the future. My thinking in regard to investing in Bitcoin takes this into account very strongly.

If you trade short or mid term then this indicator is not much use because it's hard to say at what level we are right now and how much of the expected future value is already priced in etc. But for a long term player like me this is very useful. There is indeed a realistic chance that Bitcoin could eventually challenge at least Western Union, I believe Bitcoin could go even bigger than that but that's just extra. This potential alone gives me reason to be bullish at these prices, from a long term perspective.

Bitcoin at three digits might still take a while but Bitcoin at single digits is something that we will say good bye for good sooner or later, most likely sooner. If Bitcoin doesn't totally fail for some reason, I have a very hard time believing that it could be at single digits in 2013, not for one day. In fact 2013 could be the first year we have a go at three digits.

Prasos operates Denarium, Coinmotion and Bittiraha.fi. We have an equity offering now live! Check our pitch and invest at Invesdor.
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January 27, 2012, 10:28:27 PM
 #59

My fundamental analysis from last summer was way off.  I would not have believed it could have gotten down to $2.00 absent a system failure, and not even close.  For this reason, my confidence in my own ability to estimate the lows that can be plumbed remains weak.

I remember telling people that .mp3s were the next big thing in 1993. I also remember saying that Apple was a screaming buy at $4.  Sometimes it takes a while for the market to properly value something...

In my opinion, the best way to value Bitcoin is to think of it as a publicly owned company.  Right now, there are roughtly 8 million bitcoins in existance, with a $5 value.  That's about a 40 million dollar market cap.  You could even go a step further and say that investors have already priced in the roughly 20 million bitcoins that will be in existance.  That would be an estimated 100 million dollar market cap.  Is the Bitcoin idea/network/economy worth 100 million dollars?  In my opinion, it is will be worth far more.

The closest publicly traded company that offers the service that Bitcoin offers is Western Union.  Western Union charges higher fees, isn't anonymous, can't be be claimed from the privacy of your own home, isn't supported by an enormous public network and can't be used as a tax shelter.  Even with all of those shortcomings to Bitcoin, Western Union has a market cap of nearly 12 billion dollars.  If Bitcoin were to be widely accepted 10 years from now, it wouldn't be insane to assume that it would match Western Union's market cap.  For the sake of argument, lets say that Bitcoin did reach the adoption of Western Union.  If Bitcoin were worth 10 billion, that would be $500/BTC...

That's nice analogy in theory, except Bitcoin is not traded like a publicly-owned company.

When you invest in shares of Western Union, you are doing so in a proven, viable business that is
financially regulated, and accountable to shareholders.

When you "invest" in Bitcoins you are entering a world of unregulated if not somewhat nefarious
manipulators, out-of-control margin "gamblers', and over-exuberant traders who are speculating
Bitcoin out of existence with parabolic rallies, pump-n-dump crashes, and Bitcoinica starfish nonsense.

Probably the most important factor in the adoption of Bitcoins: a stable trading price. And when
is that going to happen?
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January 27, 2012, 10:55:22 PM
 #60

Quote from: StewartJ

Probably the most important factor in the adoption of Bitcoins: a stable trading price. And when
is that going to happen?
Probably never. It's simply not in the nature of BTC to have a "stable" price.
 
Will the volatility and swings decrease in the future?

Sure, but the price will never be "stable" like the USD is to the Euro and so on...

Those currencies are only "stable", because they are kept that way artificially..

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