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Author Topic: KNIFE IMMINENT  (Read 6451 times)
notme
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January 29, 2012, 12:20:58 PM
 #41

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

+1

@arepo
How is stating the limitations of calculus a demonstration of a "blatant lack of knowledge of calculus"?  It would seem at this point you're just trolling.

Yes, calculus is great, in fact I have a degree in mathematics, but math is nothing but trouble if you don't understand the limitations and assumptions you are working with.

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guywhogotgoxed
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January 29, 2012, 12:59:34 PM
 #42

because our signal isn't continuous

Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data.  You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases.

calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out).

and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c).

fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time.

since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby.

fantastic post; i haven't such blatant lack of knowledge of calculus in a single post since the person to whom i was responding when i wrote the post you quoted.

so let's see: if we have a function (discontinuous, mind you), and we want to know if its "very next" value will be higher or lower than its present, you want to know if it has a positive or negative slope. the problem, however, is a single point in a discontinuous function is NOT differentiable. so your above challenge is impossible.

HOWEVER, using charts can be almost exactly described by this intent. if one smooths the data using averages, for instance (even the data you look at when you look at price charts has been smoothed, usually by boxplots), and then graphs the derivative of this now-continuous function, you might get an idea of what kind of trend is occurring. in fact, this is extremely easy, and can be done by just about anyone during a strong trend. long-term PVT and Accumulation/Distribution Line will both be increasing, and thus the Chaikin Oscillator ('momentum' or scaled-slope of the ACC/DIST) will be relatively constant and positive. guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby!

identifying tops and bottoms (protecting those guaranteed profits) is more difficult. using indicators that also look at volume is helpful, as price and volume are the two core pieces of "data" that are free, information-wise, in a market, and should always both be considered. also looking at oscillators which are slightly different than indicators that just act as scaled derivatives is helpful because they try to track the 'momentum' of price moves -- that is, the tendency of markets to swing from 'overbought' to 'oversold' -- which are signals of a market reversal.

tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'.

wow Im convinced, arepo I will be following your trading advice.
please make more threads, I will donate btc to you.

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January 29, 2012, 01:00:01 PM
 #43

IMO, arepo's claims are wrong about calculus in general but correct on the manipulation and correct on the part that the method implied could be used to make money from October to now.

In each of the cases, there is a statistical argument in it. The statements on forecasts use additional assumptions, which seem to boil down to trends giving nonzero information on expectation value. This should not be the case normally, and is not a generally correct mathematical concept. However, reading Goomboo's posts, trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected on some markets, very especially on Bitcoin in the last year.

On big instead of small players acting on the market: all we get is few large movements instead of many small ones. This doesn't really change the general nature of the market, just gives it a little more noise on larger scales. There is no magical power in money that enables one to manipulate others. Sure, you can place a few manipulative large orders, but only if you accept the fact that they may be filled, because there's always a player around who could to that if he wanted. Okay, people who are overly manipulated by far-away orders can be manipulated, true, but that behavior is asking for it.

Claiming that the market is controlled by the large traders only is overdoing it. There's also little reason to assume their psychology and objectives being much different from smaller traders.
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January 29, 2012, 06:27:29 PM
 #44

IMO, arepo's claims are wrong about calculus in general but correct on the manipulation and correct on the part that the method implied could be used to make money from October to now.

In each of the cases, there is a statistical argument in it. The statements on forecasts use additional assumptions, which seem to boil down to trends giving nonzero information on expectation value. This should not be the case normally, and is not a generally correct mathematical concept. However, reading Goomboo's posts, trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected on some markets, very especially on Bitcoin in the last year.

On big instead of small players acting on the market: all we get is few large movements instead of many small ones. This doesn't really change the general nature of the market, just gives it a little more noise on larger scales. There is no magical power in money that enables one to manipulate others. Sure, you can place a few manipulative large orders, but only if you accept the fact that they may be filled, because there's always a player around who could to that if he wanted. Okay, people who are overly manipulated by far-away orders can be manipulated, true, but that behavior is asking for it.

Claiming that the market is controlled by the large traders only is overdoing it. There's also little reason to assume their psychology and objectives being much different from smaller traders.

+9000

i think you and i agree on more than you think. you've very masterfully stated what i've been griping about for a while about "the Manipulator". you've also pointed out that my method does work, and works via the tendency of markets to swing from overbought to oversold (see: trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected...)

however, i don't understand your point about any "generally mathematical concept". The only general concept used here is the fundamental theorem of calculus: that the derivative of a [continuous] function is equal in magnitude to the slope of the function at any point. The function P(), the price function, is just whatever the price is: that function is equivalent, mathematically, to the function that the market mechanism is computing. as traders you are aware that this is a wildly erratic function: many economists (Elliot) believe it to be infinitesimally complex, i.e. a fractal! But it can be smoothed and slopes can be figured, trends can be identified, and profit can be made because trends have a strange tendency to continue more than expected....

i hope i have clarified my previous points

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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arepo
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January 29, 2012, 06:54:38 PM
 #45

The statements on forecasts use additional assumptions, which seem to boil down to trends giving nonzero information on expectation value. This should not be the case normally, and is not a generally correct mathematical concept.

also THIS. this is the point.

trends DO yield information on 'expectation value'; in a perfect-information market it would not happen, but in real markets price has momentum. and thus scaled derivatives and oscillators are useful in identifying trends (and their limits -- tops, bottoms).

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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January 29, 2012, 07:07:56 PM
 #46

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

+1

I got my bachelor's in mathematics over 30 years ago, along with another in economics with a concentration in quantitative methods. Grad school was EE with a concentration in computer science, I never finished it as I was concurrently working in the financial services industry and suddenly found myself busy being buried in money, or so it seemed at the time. No problem is ever completely solved  Wink

Calculus is great, linear algebra is really cool, I had a knack for abstract algebra, and I found probability, stats, and game theory very stimulating because it was often counterintuitive at the start.

What I learned on the job was the importance of marketing and social engineering. I got to observe a great deal of it, as well as participate. When it comes to investments and speculation, the fact of the matter is that there are quite a few standard "plays" around, particularly for a 500 pound gorilla, and it doesn't always have to be just a smash and grab deal either.

I'm not going to reiterate points I've made previously about market capitalization, the promotional cycle of an investment, etc. I'm not going to point to the Hunt brothers manipulation of the silver market, the selling of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s, or the dozens of small cap scams I studied in the 1990s when I took an interest in the behavioral psychology of fraud in the financial markets, nor will I regale the board with first hand tales of the madness of crowds during the real estate lending boom/bust of the first decade of the 21st century.

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach. A post I never made here a few weeks ago was in response to a thread asking "If you were the manipulator, what would you do next?". One possibility that crossed my mind was to start a technical analysis thread in an attempt to gain adherents, a block of votes in the market if you will. It's a lot easier to lead lambs to slaughter if you get them to follow you first. I lack the inclination to do so myself, I don't do much other than write equity options for income these days, but the idea seemed like a natural.

"Science flies you to the Moon, religion flies you into buildings."
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"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and the rulers as useful."
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January 29, 2012, 07:36:05 PM
 #47

trends DO yield information on 'expectation value'; in a perfect-information market it would not happen, but in real markets price has momentum. and thus scaled derivatives and oscillators are useful in identifying trends (and their limits -- tops, bottoms).

There is a problem using this as a general rule on markets. The more traders follow this rule, the more true it becomes -- but a trader that simply dampens oscillations will ultimately eat all those who follow trends too much. In such a situation, it's those who break trends who get the money of those who followed them.

As always, the market will compete to eradicate any pattern that gives information on the expectation value of the price. Depending on the time-scale, profits, and complexity of the pattern it might take a while though.
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January 29, 2012, 08:31:54 PM
 #48

trends DO yield information on 'expectation value'; in a perfect-information market it would not happen, but in real markets price has momentum. and thus scaled derivatives and oscillators are useful in identifying trends (and their limits -- tops, bottoms).

There is a problem using this as a general rule on markets. The more traders follow this rule, the more true it becomes -- but a trader that simply dampens oscillations will ultimately eat all those who follow trends too much. In such a situation, it's those who break trends who get the money of those who followed them.

As always, the market will compete to eradicate any pattern that gives information on the expectation value of the price. Depending on the time-scale, profits, and complexity of the pattern it might take a while though.

agreed, it's very much the Red Queen's Race; but with a little effort i can try to constantly trade ahead of the market. it's not a guaranteed system, just one that is currently working for me, for the bitcoin economy.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 29, 2012, 08:34:04 PM
 #49

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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January 30, 2012, 06:42:08 AM
 #50

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

+1

I got my bachelor's in mathematics over 30 years ago, along with another in economics with a concentration in quantitative methods. Grad school was EE with a concentration in computer science, I never finished it as I was concurrently working in the financial services industry and suddenly found myself busy being buried in money, or so it seemed at the time. No problem is ever completely solved  Wink

Calculus is great, linear algebra is really cool, I had a knack for abstract algebra, and I found probability, stats, and game theory very stimulating because it was often counterintuitive at the start.

What I learned on the job was the importance of marketing and social engineering. I got to observe a great deal of it, as well as participate. When it comes to investments and speculation, the fact of the matter is that there are quite a few standard "plays" around, particularly for a 500 pound gorilla, and it doesn't always have to be just a smash and grab deal either.

I'm not going to reiterate points I've made previously about market capitalization, the promotional cycle of an investment, etc. I'm not going to point to the Hunt brothers manipulation of the silver market, the selling of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s, or the dozens of small cap scams I studied in the 1990s when I took an interest in the behavioral psychology of fraud in the financial markets, nor will I regale the board with first hand tales of the madness of crowds during the real estate lending boom/bust of the first decade of the 21st century.

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach. A post I never made here a few weeks ago was in response to a thread asking "If you were the manipulator, what would you do next?". One possibility that crossed my mind was to start a technical analysis thread in an attempt to gain adherents, a block of votes in the market if you will. It's a lot easier to lead lambs to slaughter if you get them to follow you first. I lack the inclination to do so myself, I don't do much other than write equity options for income these days, but the idea seemed like a natural.


This is a good post. However, gathering of lambs who mimic you and then have predictable (read exploitable) behavior. That is all technical analysis is in any market context.

That is why I recommended divination by shits as a functionally equivalent alternative. It would be much more entertaining.

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January 30, 2012, 10:40:20 AM
 #51

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.

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January 30, 2012, 11:33:27 AM
 #52

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.
That's my impression too.  There was no katharsis, so to speak, to free everyone of the fears Smiley  (and liquidate that over-leveraging on bitcoinica)
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January 30, 2012, 11:53:48 AM
 #53

Bitcoinica showed the * on the buy side (no, not on the sell side as well) today when it was ~5.6.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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this statement is false


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January 30, 2012, 11:17:47 PM
 #54

IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.

you're assuming the last top was a reversal, and not just a correction from $7.20. we hit the trend line right as the last short-term downtrend started to lose momentum.

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January 31, 2012, 03:56:09 AM
 #55

Shit is crap.

It certainly is, Holmes.

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January 31, 2012, 06:07:48 PM
 #56

after seeing this thread for like.. weeks, i need to express my bad feeling about it:

useless, panik spreading "KNIFE IMMINENT!" - bullshit thread. doomsday is at 12.12.2012, not NOW!

the "knife"-metaphor makes me kind of aggresive, excuse me.

if there is anything like a "knife" it is somebody selling 10k bitcoins - OH MY GOOD, THAT IS SO BAD, I BETTER SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE!
..get over it. price moves.  Cool


..

stop opening such threads, please. we don't need neither "KNIFE IMMINENT" nor "RALLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE" threads.
thanks

 
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January 31, 2012, 06:11:46 PM
 #57

after seeing this thread for like.. weeks, i need to express my bad feeling about it:

useless, panik spreading "KNIFE IMMINENT!" - bullshit thread. doomsday is at 12.12.2012, not NOW!

the "knife"-metaphor makes me kind of aggresive, excuse me.

if there is anything like a "knife" it is somebody selling 10k bitcoins - OH MY GOOD, THAT IS SO BAD, I BETTER SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE!
..get over it. price moves.  Cool


..

stop opening such threads, please. we don't need neither "KNIFE IMMINENT" nor "RALLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE" threads.
thanks

 


This..





And for all you people..  The manipulator ..  exists..

If you cant see it, your retarded...

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January 31, 2012, 07:19:01 PM
 #58

Gewure: you get pissed by bearish threads because you have a long position Cheesy
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January 31, 2012, 07:40:55 PM
 #59

Gewure: you get pissed by bearish threads because you have a long position Cheesy
So what’s your position and why do you hold it? Smiley

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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January 31, 2012, 08:42:32 PM
 #60

guys, let's get back to topic:

imminent knife is imminent.. or.. is it?
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