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Author Topic: KNIFE IMMINENT  (Read 6452 times)
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 05:51:06 AM
 #1



if any of you still don't 'believe' in charts, let's take a look:

-the Chaikin Money Flow became positive for the first time in early December... the same day that

-the MACD crossover to positive occurred,

foreshadowing a strong uptrend for December

furthermore, three very important signals occurred within the 1-2 days around the huge Bitcoinica mass liquidation:

-MACD/EXP crossover to negative

-AROON UP/DOWN crossover to negative

-testing of zeroline by the Chaikin Oscillator

lucky for me i got out at $6.85 when the MACD crossover occurred. you fools!

learn 2 charts

-arepo

ps clear bear market now, dead center, actually; if you follow the sine curve of "sentiment" we are now in pessimism, which immediately precedes PANIC



 Grin

EDIT: pps bear market signalled by the Chaikin Money Flow going negative for the first time since early December, and a huge crash (+/- crossover) in the Chaikin Oscillator (momentum of the Accumulation/Distribution Line) these past 2-3 days.

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January 27, 2012, 05:53:31 AM
 #2

lol...I dunno I found the OP quite funny  Tongue

Oh, and here's a pic of a falling knife


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January 27, 2012, 05:54:36 AM
 #3

But, but, but... the manipulator!  Huh  Wink
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 06:05:20 AM
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dude, you don't understand how charts work. the manipulator moves the price; the charts help determine how much MOMENTUM the price move has. for instance, by only looking at the price, you neglect volume, which is an important indicator, as well as price. the charts i use are simple transformations of the price and volume, many of which act as oscillators which is very important for predicting maxima and minima (i.e. learn 2 calculus)

here's a post i made days after the MACD crossover, immediately after the AROON UP/DOWN crossover, and predicting the plummet in the Chaikin Oscillator:
 
this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.


Manipulators move the market, charts describe and predict how the market reacts to the movements.

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cunicula
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January 27, 2012, 06:18:37 AM
 #5

this shit is crap. shove it.

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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 06:21:20 AM
 #6

this shit is crap. shove it.

explain yourself

actually, first: have you ever taken calculus?

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RogerR
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January 27, 2012, 06:21:54 AM
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this shit is crap. shove it.

hihi... Grin

to OP:

I was making a joke. Hence the Wink

As cunicula put so eloquently... it is ludacrous to try and use quantitative/technical analysis in such a thinly traded and highly manipulated market with high intervention tendency. And dude, believe me, I know charts and how much they tend to say shit about what is going to happen at later on to be dubbed 'black swan events'. A chart is a chart, the rest is what you read into it - all the more so at a commodity with no actual underlying value.

Also, I'm basically the guy that says bitcoins are overpriced because manipulator ruins both price stability and attraction of more investors. So yeah...
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 06:29:28 AM
 #8

this shit is crap. shove it.

hihi... Grin

to OP:

I was making a joke. Hence the Wink

As cunicula put so eloquently... it is ludacrous to try and use quantitative/technical analysis in such a thinly traded and highly manipulated market with high intervention tendency. And dude, believe me, I know charts and how much they tend to say shit about what is going to happen at later on to be dubbed 'black swan events'. A chart is a chart, the rest is what you read into it.

Also, I'm basically the guy that says bitcoins are overpriced because manipulator ruins both price stability and attraction of more investors. So yeah...

i am familiar with black swan events. that would be equivalent to me attempting to predict the big, obviously manipulated price movements. i am merely predicting/noting the trend. there is still a trend regardless, and charts [read GRAPHS] are good visual representations of the price and volume.

please, think about calculus. one can predict when one function will reach a maximum (read: reversal) or minimum, by following the 'momentum' of a line, or function scalable to the derivative. a "zero-line crossover" of a derivative is an x-intercept, which tells you that the function is undergoing a 'reversal'.

(EDIT: for instance, this is the exact relationship between the Accumulation/Distribution Line, an indicator based solely on price and volume, and the Chaikin Oscillator, which measures the ACC/DIS Line's 'momentum')

so no, this was no black swan event. i predicted not that massive, manipulated movement, but noted the beginning of a reversal at the end of the bubble to 7.20, and sold at 6.85.

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ZodiacDragon84
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The king and the pawn go in the same box @ endgame


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January 27, 2012, 06:31:04 AM
 #9

When will people learn that (we) are the manipulators?

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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 06:33:15 AM
 #10

When will people learn that (we) are the manipulators?

+1

there are big players, but the mass movement of medium players still has a trending effect.

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copumpkin
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I'm actually a pineapple


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January 27, 2012, 06:58:27 AM
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please, think about calculus. one can predict when one function will reach a maximum (read: reversal) or minimum, by following the 'momentum' of a line, or function scalable to the derivative. a "zero-line crossover" of a derivative is an x-intercept, which tells you that the function is undergoing a 'reversal'.

Calculus has no predictive power. The pricing function's derivative will be ~ 0 at the maximum because right after the maximum the next value will be slightly smaller, so the adjacent difference will be negative, and we'll assume there was a 0 between the positive difference and the negative one (because our signal isn't continuous). This requires hindsight. You might see it approaching 0 and extrapolate that it will keep going that way, but then you're just making assumptions and the calculus is just a means to express them.

Even if we could spy one instant ahead, seeing a derivative of 0 tells us nothing about whether the next moment the derivative will be -1000.

All these technical indicators can do is smoothly model assumptions about future market behavior based on (a very restricted view of) past behavior. Whether they work or not is another question, but if they do, it's because the model's assumptions were correct, not because of calculus.
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January 27, 2012, 07:04:03 AM
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because our signal isn't continuous

Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data.  You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases.

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While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 27, 2012, 07:04:07 AM
 #13

i got out, this market is so insane i cannot find single reason to support it, i'll get back in when hits bottom

to the manipulator:  enjoy your fucking greed, hopefully the rate will stay below for so long until you lose patience and sell for pennies on the dollar.
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January 27, 2012, 07:15:42 AM
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i got out, this market is so insane i cannot find single reason to support it, i'll get back in when hits bottom


Yea lets face it..as hard as it may be to take...FIAT currency is safer atm than Bitcoin, which IMO is currently just a commodity to trade in to increase your FIAT balance and is no different to gold or silver.

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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 27, 2012, 07:54:32 AM
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because our signal isn't continuous

Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data.  You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases.

calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out).

and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c).

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January 27, 2012, 04:57:08 PM
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i got out, this market is so insane i cannot find single reason to support it, i'll get back in when hits bottom


Yea lets face it..as hard as it may be to take...FIAT currency is safer atm than Bitcoin, which IMO is currently just a commodity to trade in to increase your FIAT balance and is no different to gold or silver.
Unfortunately your statement is more true than us BTC fanatics would like to believe.  There are a lot of people here who are trying to grow an infinitesimally small BTC "economy" when really the only thing it is still good for right now is to increase your fiat.
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January 27, 2012, 05:03:47 PM
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i got out, this market is so insane i cannot find single reason to support it, i'll get back in when hits bottom


Yea lets face it..as hard as it may be to take...FIAT currency is safer atm than Bitcoin, which IMO is currently just a commodity to trade in to increase your FIAT balance and is no different to gold or silver.
Unfortunately your statement is more true than us BTC fanatics would like to believe.  There are a lot of people here who are trying to grow an infinitesimally small BTC "economy" when really the only thing it is still good for right now is to increase your fiat.
Maybe to YOU...

The speculators in this section really need to do some soul searching, and find out why this project is special, instead of ZOMG GOTTA MAKE GREEN BACKS ASAP!

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January 27, 2012, 05:05:47 PM
 #18

The speculators in this section really need to do some soul searching, and find out why this project is special, instead of ZOMG GOTTA MAKE GREEN BACKS ASAP!
U jelly bro?

Also, I prefer to make some Bitcoins. Cool

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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January 27, 2012, 05:20:35 PM
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I don't understand your charting

knife gonna knife?
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The revolution will be monetized!


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January 27, 2012, 05:43:30 PM
 #20

If charts work, then why do people lose money in the stock market?  Are they just not looking at the charts?
Maybe a contest is in order. People could present their theroies and each could fund a wallet with 1BTC. Trading with their respective systems we could see who profits the most after 3 months.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

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