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Author Topic: When do you expect the price of btc to rise?  (Read 2521 times)
hensi (OP)
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May 19, 2014, 03:50:52 AM
 #1

bitcoin is trading around 450$ since like some two months. should i expect the price to rise? if yes, then why and when?
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May 19, 2014, 03:59:14 AM
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I think it will be flat for a while. This is a good thing as volatility limits the utility of it as a means of exchange. As adoption grows the value with grow with it. I think we are done with speculative bubbles for a little while.   

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May 19, 2014, 04:08:07 AM
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I think it will be flat for a while. This is a good thing as volatility limits the utility of it as a means of exchange. As adoption grows the value with grow with it. I think we are done with speculative bubbles for a little while.   

I am thinking the same thing. What people aren't realizing is that the market cap is increasing, even though the price per coin isn't (because there are another 25 BTC per 10m being released, which at the current rate is almost $60k an hour added to the market cap). As Bitcoin creation slows down due to halving, we can expect more increases. There are just too many coins being made now compared to the amount of money being added to the economy.

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hensi (OP)
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May 19, 2014, 04:11:39 AM
 #4

okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then
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May 19, 2014, 04:16:18 AM
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okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then

Another 3 years or so. The last halving was 4 years after BTC was released (2009->2013). Next one should be in 2017.

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May 19, 2014, 04:21:53 AM
 #6

will rise when the demand for btc rises.

Not in the current horizon of events, but will happen sooner or later
hensi (OP)
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May 19, 2014, 04:40:53 AM
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okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then

Another 3 years or so. The last halving was 4 years after BTC was released (2009->2013). Next one should be in 2017.
how much do you expect the btc to rise within this month period?
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May 19, 2014, 04:45:01 AM
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okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then

Another 3 years or so. The last halving was 4 years after BTC was released (2009->2013). Next one should be in 2017.
how much do you expect the btc to rise within this month period?

Eh, not a lot, really. It'll halve from 25 to 12.5, so that means there is still (assuming the price is as it is right now) around 30k per hour being added. I mean that could help overtake the money being added into the economy by a lot, but it's hard to really tell.

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May 19, 2014, 06:23:44 AM
 #9

In 3-4 weeks, but slow rise, don't expect fireworks until at least September.
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May 19, 2014, 06:25:03 AM
 #10

I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

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May 19, 2014, 06:28:09 AM
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I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great a sing of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stay at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

Only investors create additional demand, miners actually create supply unless they don't sell what they have mined.

The price is stagnant because demand = supply. Simple as that.

Someone sure is dumping BTC, but someone is also buying. No clear winners right now, so only time will tell if bulls or bears win.
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May 19, 2014, 06:31:22 AM
 #12

I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

You mean 150 BTC per hour is added. This means, at the current rate, around 60k per hour. If there's not more than that being invested, the price will go down or stay equal.

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An amorous cow-herder
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May 19, 2014, 06:11:47 PM
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I think it will be flat for a while. This is a good thing as volatility limits the utility of it as a means of exchange. As adoption grows the value with grow with it. I think we are done with speculative bubbles for a little while.   

I am thinking the same thing. What people aren't realizing is that the market cap is increasing, even though the price per coin isn't (because there are another 25 BTC per 10m being released, which at the current rate is almost $60k an hour added to the market cap). As Bitcoin creation slows down due to halving, we can expect more increases. There are just too many coins being made now compared to the amount of money being added to the economy.
The amusing thing about $60k/hour, thats $1.4M/day. Or $43M/month.
Now consider the fact that under current rates no available or announced ASIC miner will break even. In other words, the hardware industry centered around bitcoin is making a revenue in excess or $43M/month.
In the current state the hardware industry are the only ones with a vested interest in keeping bitcoin price stable to keep the sales of hardware up and running. However a couple of hardware vendors already filed for bankruptcy or are targeted by lawsuits. Thats bound to create a back lash sooner or later.
Unless something drasticly changes to bring more investors into BTC i wouldnt expect any long term rise until next reward halvings (or even the one after that).
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May 19, 2014, 06:25:31 PM
 #14

I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

You mean 150 BTC per hour is added. This means, at the current rate, around 60k per hour. If there's not more than that being invested, the price will go down or stay equal.

A lot more money is still waiting to buy or it's on the way to do so. All the big companies will move in sooner or later but they need to go through their bureaucratic meetings and licenses first. Some big funds have bought on the top at US$1,000, one of the reasons it stayed up there quite some time.
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May 19, 2014, 06:32:46 PM
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According to http://bitcoinclock.com/ next reward drop estimated at 2016-8-18.
BitchicksHusband
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May 19, 2014, 06:59:59 PM
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Things that could cause the value to go up:

* A trusted exchange.  This will take a while, because a lot of people got burned by Mt. Gox.  People need a place where they feel comfortable leaving 10s of thousands of dollars and that they won't lose it all because of some crook.  Volume is nearly nothing right now because nobody wants to leave money on a Slovenian or Bulgarian exchange.

* Less supply.  If these stolen coins from Gox are slowly being sold off right now, then it will take until they run out for things to change.

* Halving.  This will happen in the middle of 2016, about 2 years from now.

* SEC-regulated funds. Once a fund (like the Winklevoss fund) is approved, not only can IRA and 401k ("retirement" money) in the US come in, but also mutual fund managers can add it to their funds as well.  They are ALWAYS looking for any way to improve their percentage, and I personally think that this event will be the vertical of the adoption curve, since every fund will try to do what all the other funds are doing to get that high percentage rate increase.  As with anything, the last ones to this party will lose and the early movers will win (and that includes us hodlers).

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May 19, 2014, 07:04:34 PM
 #17

okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then

Another 3 years or so. The last halving was 4 years after BTC was released (2009->2013). Next one should be in 2017.

A lot can happen in this time. I think we will see some large price movements long before the next reward halving. Too much going on behind the scenes. Plus, people (*miners*) take this into account and start pricing it in long before it actually happens,.

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May 19, 2014, 07:24:03 PM
 #18

Now is good.   Wink

I actually do think we are on the precipice of the next major bubble.  We have felt the "squeeze" of the price this past couple of weeks with very low volatility and movement.  It seems the "dumpers" are not successful now in lowering the price any further.  The sellers have all sold and now we are just in a short period of time before the buying begins.  It will start off gradually, kind of like a dam that has a leak.  It will slowly trickle then suddenly burst!  Tons of fun if you have been through them before.  This will be my third bubble.  The first one totally shocked me and unfortunately I did not have much invested in BTC at the time.  The second one (in November) was somewhat expected but still surprised me at how suddenly it happened.  This one coming up next almost feels totally expected.  It is like I have been pregnant for months just waiting for the "due date."  I guess that is an analogy only a woman can give!   Grin


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ranlo
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May 19, 2014, 07:25:34 PM
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I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

You mean 150 BTC per hour is added. This means, at the current rate, around 60k per hour. If there's not more than that being invested, the price will go down or stay equal.

A lot more money is still waiting to buy or it's on the way to do so. All the big companies will move in sooner or later but they need to go through their bureaucratic meetings and licenses first. Some big funds have bought on the top at US$1,000, one of the reasons it stayed up there quite some time.

I think a lot of big investors are already stocking up. They are just doing it smart, which is to take it slow so as to not ramp up the prices while buying. I'm positive there are major investors that already have tens of thousands and are waiting for the price to go up.

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May 19, 2014, 07:27:21 PM
 #20

I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

You mean 150 BTC per hour is added. This means, at the current rate, around 60k per hour. If there's not more than that being invested, the price will go down or stay equal.

A lot more money is still waiting to buy or it's on the way to do so. All the big companies will move in sooner or later but they need to go through their bureaucratic meetings and licenses first. Some big funds have bought on the top at US$1,000, one of the reasons it stayed up there quite some time.

I think a lot of big investors are already stocking up. They are just doing it smart, which is to take it slow so as to not ramp up the prices while buying. I'm positive there are major investors that already have tens of thousands and are waiting for the price to go up.

based on my secret facts and sources, Obama owns 2 million BTC, we just dont know it yet. Putin has only 1.5 million Bitcoins. It must be true because i blindly wish it.
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