Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.

This is very unlikely.

Here's why:

with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE.

This means, to hold the same value of bitcoins, individuals will be holding less and less actual bitcoins.  Therefore, when they lose their private key, less bitcoins will be lost.  As such, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in an ever shrinking fashion each year.

You are correct. As the price of bitcoin increases, people will take more case of their keys and security of their wallet. Someone with $0.25 worth of bitcoin may not even have a password attached to his wallet, but if that same .0004 BTC is worth $1,000 then he would likely use double encryption, 2FA, multiple backups, ect)

[Geremia]

Maybe our phd in physics friend can explain further.

Who's he? I'm a physicist, too.

[moosedawg]

When's Gemini going to happen?

[Troonetpt]

It can't be the linear, that would be crazy.
The most possibility would be the number will tend to a constant number, as people become more and more careless to keep their private key.

[BusyBeaverHP]

Please Google "exponential decay". That is all.

[Q7]

When the cap limit has been reached and it's getting harder to obtain supplies, eventually price will go up which naturally makes people become more attentive and more careful about managing private keys. Never mind about whether it is going to be exponential or linear, the amount will definitely decrease for sure. 

[InceptionCoin]

Price in USD defined by many factors, mostly by:
1) increasing of amount of btc in circulation
2) increasing of amount of usd in circulation
3) demand of ppl in asset like btc

Current rate of increasing if btc in circulation is very high. I assume that majority of currently mined btc are going to exchange(to pay the electricity costs). 2/3 of btc never have touched after mining, so we have 1,3m gain yearly to 4.3m btc in circulation. Its like 30% raise yearly.
Current rate of increasing of usd in circulation is much slower. So if we assume that ppl's demand in btc not increased(there wasn't any extraordinary frightening events with banking system) and btc2.0 app still very immature, we will find that btc price should go down.
In the distant future we couldn't predict any of this factors, even btc in circulation, because in contrast with banking system where all money always in circulation, here holders hold their coins outside from economic.

[LiteCoinGuy]

One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.  Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys.  This is inevitable.

So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE.

You post this like you discovered something new that has not been discussed hundreds of times before.

yes but everyone has to learn this at some point 

[Netnox]

I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy.

[tatu]

I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy.

I don't think you have to be tech savvy at all. If you can use Paypal or online banking then there's not much difference especially with something like blockchain.info so people should be able to use bitcoin without any problems too. Wallets will also get more consumer friendly and more secure over time.

[Yeah?]

One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.  Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys.  This is inevitable.

So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE.

You post this like you discovered something new that has not been discussed hundreds of times before.

yes but everyone has to learn this at some point 

Exactly. It doesn't even matter any way. If people lose their coins then they lose them. However, my coins will still be safe and if demand for bitcoin is high it will just make the coins you own more valuable. If it ever became a massive problem more decimal places can be added as well.

[InceptionCoin]

I think those who can't protect it themselves will have to store them in a trusted third party like a bank, i think that is actually needed for the non tech savy.

There is the difference between bank deposit and trusted third party. When you put your money on deposit bank use it to give someone a loan and so on, so your money always in circulation.
But i think that majority of ppl with big amount of btc wont to put it under any risk.

[Sarthak]

One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.  Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys.  This is inevitable.

So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE.

And most of the people don't share their private key with anyone and if they die its gone forever..
I guess that's even bigger problem than you stated but I heard multisignature can be used. I don't know how it actually works though.

[thejaytiesto]

One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.  Why? Because a consistent number of people (maybe 0.05%) will always - ALWAYS - lose their private keys.  This is inevitable.

So with the number of Bitcoins DECLINING (after 21 million) and the demand RISING, classical economics tells us that the price will SURGE.

My very gross estimate is by 2140 when all Bitcoins are done being mined, at least 40% of the total supply will have disappeared by then due coins being lost forever.

[torry28]

maybe this have opposite effect , people loose private keys and then start giving it a bad name and thus declining the value ?

[BTC_Superman]

Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year.

[BurtW]

Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year.

Very true, and welcome to Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

maybe this have opposite effect , people loose private keys and then start giving it a bad name and thus declining the value ?

nah, the number of people who will lose their private keys are a small portion of bitcoin users. also the number of people who lost their private keys and would give bitcoin a bad name would be small, so i doubt if it has any significant effect

[tspacepilot]

Every year some people lose their keys, so it is obvious total number of bitcoins will decrease every year.

Very true, and welcome to Bitcoin.

Indeed, welcome, and also please consider whether it's worthwhile to bump a thread which hasn't been posted in for more than a month just to restate a one line opinion which is basically what the OP says but less elegantly.   Welcome. 

[Bitcoin_BOy$]

I agree with you , also theirs some miners who always burn their bitcoins I don't know
why but they are really burning a lot like 20 - 30 btc and till now i can see some burning
wallet that can't be every generated with more than 1000 btc , also theirs some hack
cases that the hacker won't use ever that btc ,,,, the 21 Millions won't ever exist .

Bitcoin Boy .