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RockHound (OP)
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May 20, 2014, 06:38:21 PM |
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The Bitcoin market has been somewhat stale recently. Most experts agree we have been in a consolidation phase following the Bitcoin bubble of November-December 2013. The price per Bitcoin reached as high as $1163, and then decreased swiftly over the coming months to a low of $340 in April 2014. Since the end of April the price of Bitcoin has been relatively steady around $450, with little volatility to speak of. This is similar to the market’s behavior following the first 2 Bitcoin bubbles.
The Bitcoin market began to show signs of life yesterday afternoon and evening (U.S. time), with the price of Bitcoin slowly rising from $442 to $448. A price jump to $460 per Bitcoin occurred just before midnight, and this price held for about the next 12 hours. Around 10 am EST the price of Bitcoin began to rally, and reached $500 shortly after noon EST.
When Bitcoin’s price hit $500, that represented a price rise of $58 in about 24 hours, which is roughly 13%. This is the most significant Bitcoin rally since April 15 2014, which occurred shortly after the market reached a low of $340.
It appears this rally is already losing steam, there is abundant selling pressure and the price per Bitcoin is down to $486. It’s typical for rallies to overshoot and then correct to a more reasonable level though. Either way Bitcoin is having an excellent day, especially considering how there’s been no rallies to speak of in over a month.
Is this rally the start of a new market regime, where Bitcoin consistently rises as we approach the next bubble, or is today’s rally merely a blip on the radar? Considering the long term market trends, this could be the start of a bull market, but it’s impossible to be certain.
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labsbitforum
Member
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Activity: 99
Merit: 10
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May 20, 2014, 06:55:19 PM |
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No big investor would pile in so hard and fast for a long term position. You would feather in the buying more slowly to not drive the price up on your own buy. The volume doesn't look like its broad-based participation from a lot of different investors. Looks like a few big players intentionally coming in hard and fast to drive it up.
My guess is its one of two likely possibilities:
1. Some not yet public news is about to break that someone(s) with a lot of capital is buying in advance of (insider trading is perfectly fine with an unregulated market, so is every other dirty trick)
2. One of the bigger "market manipulators" is trying to create some upward momentum presumably so they can pull the rug out on others.
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RockHound (OP)
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May 20, 2014, 07:17:50 PM |
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No big investor would pile in so hard and fast for a long term position. You would feather in the buying more slowly to not drive the price up on your own buy. The volume doesn't look like its broad-based participation from a lot of different investors. Looks like a few big players intentionally coming in hard and fast to drive it up.
My guess is its one of two likely possibilities:
1. Some not yet public news is about to break that someone(s) with a lot of capital is buying in advance of (insider trading is perfectly fine with an unregulated market, so is every other dirty trick)
2. One of the bigger "market manipulators" is trying to create some upward momentum presumably so they can pull the rug out on others.
Appears that way, first I was thinking the same (1) but now (2) seems more likely - feathered out since 03:30am GMT today. If this is the case, I'm wondering how sustainable this will be? could be wrong but think we'll be moving back to $450. Sort of biased  because I'm wanting to buy-in. |
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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May 20, 2014, 10:15:57 PM |
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No big investor would pile in so hard and fast for a long term position. You would feather in the buying more slowly to not drive the price up on your own buy. The volume doesn't look like its broad-based participation from a lot of different investors. Looks like a few big players intentionally coming in hard and fast to drive it up.
My guess is its one of two likely possibilities:
1. Some not yet public news is about to break that someone(s) with a lot of capital is buying in advance of (insider trading is perfectly fine with an unregulated market, so is every other dirty trick)
2. One of the bigger "market manipulators" is trying to create some upward momentum presumably so they can pull the rug out on others.
Appears that way, first I was thinking the same (1) but now (2) seems more likely - feathered out since 03:30am GMT today. If this is the case, I'm wondering how sustainable this will be? could be wrong but think we'll be moving back to $450. Sort of biased because I'm wanting to buy-in. We are probably going to around $600 at least. |
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galbros
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
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May 20, 2014, 10:27:09 PM |
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Thanks for that link, I had forgotten about the Chinese bitcoin summit. I think also the people who have wanted to sell have sold, we've now had a period of base building and hopefully BTC will continue to move up. Thanks again! |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 20, 2014, 10:32:42 PM |
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Thanks for that link, I had forgotten about the Chinese bitcoin summit. I think also the people who have wanted to sell have sold, we've now had a period of base building and hopefully BTC will continue to move up. Thanks again! good point - certainly had plenty of time to sell whilst sideways and before. Thanks for posting |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 20, 2014, 10:39:21 PM |
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No big investor would pile in so hard and fast for a long term position. You would feather in the buying more slowly to not drive the price up on your own buy. The volume doesn't look like its broad-based participation from a lot of different investors. Looks like a few big players intentionally coming in hard and fast to drive it up.
My guess is its one of two likely possibilities:
1. Some not yet public news is about to break that someone(s) with a lot of capital is buying in advance of (insider trading is perfectly fine with an unregulated market, so is every other dirty trick)
2. One of the bigger "market manipulators" is trying to create some upward momentum presumably so they can pull the rug out on others.
Appears that way, first I was thinking the same (1) but now (2) seems more likely - feathered out since 03:30am GMT today. If this is the case, I'm wondering how sustainable this will be? could be wrong but think we'll be moving back to $450. Sort of biased because I'm wanting to buy-in. We are probably going to around $600 at least. Wouldn't suprise me if the rally effort took us to $600. I'm still thinking a rebound to $450 is likely. (Don't ask me why, it's just a gut feeling, so probably wrong) I've been waiting for 2 weeks now to buy-in, so in a difficult position Bitcoin fun n' games! We are ultra tempted to just buy-in now - lol |
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MatTheCat
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May 20, 2014, 10:44:49 PM |
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Well, once again, the break out started on Huobi. After the actions of the PBOC, why is there even a market in China, never mind the fact that they are leading the market, again? There is all manner of 'news' day in day out, so much so that I never pay attention to it. Of course, the big news today was Richard Branson investing in Bitpay. Did this have a role in todays break out? Perhaps, but it never influenced me. What influenced me to buy Bitcoins at $462 was the break out above the long term resistance trendline (5th Jan) and the fact that it was holding above it on strong volume. The surge in volume came first on Huobi, and was followed up on Bitstamp and then everywhere else. What this has got me thinking is that since a very significant volume of Bitcoins are mined in China, what is to stop the Chinese exchanges being used simply as a manipulative tool to drive prices up on behalf of the miners, many of which may have actual stakes in the exchanges? Whatever the case, the road looks to be open now for Bitcoin bulls up to at least the primary existing downtrend (from Dec 17th 2013) which is currently hovering around $560. If Bitcoin can breach and hold above that, then I could see prices up into $700s before any meaningful correction hits...how long it will take for these targets to be reached and tested, who knows. If this break out is to prove to be yet another counter trend rally, probably pretty quick. If this really is a trend reversal, then probably much slower and measured. MatTheCat is bullish. For the moment. |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 20, 2014, 11:03:20 PM |
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Well, once again, the break out started on Huobi. After the actions of the PBOC, why is there even a market in China, never mind the fact that they are leading the market, again? There is all manner of 'news' day in day out, so much so that I never pay attention to it. Of course, the big news today was Richard Branson investing in Bitpay. Did this have a role in todays break out? Perhaps, but it never influenced me. What influenced me to buy Bitcoins at $462 was the break out above the long term resistance trendline (5th Jan) and the fact that it was holding above it on strong volume. The surge in volume came first on Huobi, and was followed up on Bitstamp and then everywhere else. What this has got me thinking is that since a very significant volume of Bitcoins are mined in China, what is to stop the Chinese exchanges being used simply as a manipulative tool to drive prices up on behalf of the miners, many of which may have actual stakes in the exchanges? Whatever the case, the road looks to be open now for Bitcoin bulls up to at least the primary existing downtrend (from Dec 17th 2013) which is currently hovering around $560. If Bitcoin can breach and hold above that, then I could see prices up into $700s before any meaningful correction hits...how long it will take for these targets to be reached and tested, who knows. If this break out is to prove to be yet another counter trend rally, probably pretty quick. If this really is a trend reversal, then probably much slower and measured. MatTheCat is bullish. For the moment. Good for you Mat  Cheers for the info regarding Huobi (I thought it all kicked-off on BStamp) Been a polar bear for over 2 weeks now (lol) turning into Grizzly too now |
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MatTheCat
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May 20, 2014, 11:24:04 PM |
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Good for you Mat Cheers for the info regarding Huobi (I thought it all kicked-off on BStamp) Been a polar bear for over 2 weeks now (lol) turning into Grizzly too now Don't be an emotional Bull or Bear. Follow what the charts telling you and act accordingly. Bitcoin is like a rattle snake and it will bite you if you become complacent in any outlook, or indeed attached to any particular outlook. I am not saying that it will, But Bitcoin could shoot up to $700s and then correct eventually right down to lower lows than $340. Why not? Not like these sort of price movements haven't occurred multiple times before. Sweet if you can catch them right (easier said than done), but shotgun to the head stuff if you place your chips on the wrong side of the trade and being emotionally attached is the #1 means of placing chips wrong and sticking with it. I think the best correction that will occur in short term will be into mid $470 before the next leg up. I think Bitcoin is then almost certain to approach the primary resistance line (so about $540 ish). Beyond that, only time will tell. That is my stance just now, but as always, 2moro I might totally change my mind. |
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YipYip
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May 20, 2014, 11:54:35 PM |
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Well, once again, the break out started on Huobi. After the actions of the PBOC, why is there even a market in China, never mind the fact that they are leading the market, again? There is all manner of 'news' day in day out, so much so that I never pay attention to it. Of course, the big news today was Richard Branson investing in Bitpay. Did this have a role in todays break out? Perhaps, but it never influenced me. What influenced me to buy Bitcoins at $462 was the break out above the long term resistance trendline (5th Jan) and the fact that it was holding above it on strong volume. The surge in volume came first on Huobi, and was followed up on Bitstamp and then everywhere else. What this has got me thinking is that since a very significant volume of Bitcoins are mined in China, what is to stop the Chinese exchanges being used simply as a manipulative tool to drive prices up on behalf of the miners, many of which may have actual stakes in the exchanges? Whatever the case, the road looks to be open now for Bitcoin bulls up to at least the primary existing downtrend (from Dec 17th 2013) which is currently hovering around $560. If Bitcoin can breach and hold above that, then I could see prices up into $700s before any meaningful correction hits...how long it will take for these targets to be reached and tested, who knows. If this break out is to prove to be yet another counter trend rally, probably pretty quick. If this really is a trend reversal, then probably much slower and measured. MatTheCat is bullish. For the moment. Good for you Mat Cheers for the info regarding Huobi (I thought it all kicked-off on BStamp) Been a polar bear for over 2 weeks now (lol) turning into Grizzly too now It did kick off on stamp not china ...... Being a bear you have now missed over 21% on this current movement @ 489 spot You better hope for a retraction otherwise you win the award of "A DICK FOR A TICK " |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 21, 2014, 12:25:35 AM |
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Appreciate both your views, as always. holding out to be a dick for a south tick  will let Bitcoin do her thing, personal feel sub$400 is really unlikely at this point! Still happy to buy-in now, but moved order to $454.01 for now. Mat, your figures seems totally plausible ($470 resistance). Still, have shot a little lower for now. Got a feeling lads my median acquisition price is gonna to be $520's  |
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MatTheCat
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May 21, 2014, 12:30:51 AM |
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It did kick off on stamp not china ......
Being a bear you have now missed over 21% on this current movement @ 489 spot
You better hope for a retraction otherwise you win the award of "A DICK FOR A TICK "
How about going and looking at the fkn charts before you go making dumb arsed comments like that? Go on, do it! Look at the phucking charts and then try and tell me that volume on Huobi didn't take off a full 10 minutes before Bitstamp. You can't even do the most simple of diligence before you go shooting your mouth off and you say you work in 'finance'? And I wasn't interested in any 'upside' until one of the important resistance trendlines was convincingly taken out. It was, and I am long Bitcoin since $462. I expect at least mid $500s to be reached at some point down the line. |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 21, 2014, 12:38:52 AM |
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It did kick off on stamp not china ......
Being a bear you have now missed over 21% on this current movement @ 489 spot
You better hope for a retraction otherwise you win the award of "A DICK FOR A TICK "
How about going and looking at the fkn charts before you go making dumb arsed comments like that? Go on, do it! Look at the phucking charts and then try and tell me that volume on Huobi didn't take off a full 10 minutes before Bitstamp. You can't even do the most simple of diligence before you go shooting your mouth off and you say you work in 'finance'? And I wasn't interested in any 'upside' until one of the important resistance trendlines was convincingly taken out. It was, and I am long Bitcoin since $462. I expect at least mid $500s to be reached at some point down the line. Close to call, but looks like Huobi did start pumping first (according to bitcoinwisdom). Guys possibly same whale group playing both major exchanges?? YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9%? - Still that's a bit to have missed out on  |
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MatTheCat
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May 21, 2014, 12:44:06 AM |
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YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9% - Still that's a bit to have missed out on Had you followed my TA 101 (yes, I know I was favouring break down as opposed to break out), you would have known to go long at the same point as I did. I have been watching patiently for days on the market to decide using pretty much the same chart I posted my last TA 101A thread. As soon as I got the right signals, I took my position. Not saying that I am totally fantastic or anything and I have only recently started to discover this stuff and the trendlines I drew up were very simple....but it works, or at least gives the investor a much better idea of when to take a position and when not to. Despite having been bearish, I am glad Bitcoin is going up as it means I make money as I have banned myself from shorting and/or using leverage. Forget about $454. If Bitcoin gets down there it will probably mean the break out has failed and we are correcting, in which case, you probably won't want to buy Bitcoins. |
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YipYip
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May 21, 2014, 12:49:43 AM |
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It did kick off on stamp not china ......
Being a bear you have now missed over 21% on this current movement @ 489 spot
You better hope for a retraction otherwise you win the award of "A DICK FOR A TICK "
How about going and looking at the fkn charts before you go making dumb arsed comments like that? Go on, do it! Look at the phucking charts and then try and tell me that volume on Huobi didn't take off a full 10 minutes before Bitstamp. You can't even do the most simple of diligence before you go shooting your mouth off and you say you work in 'finance'? And I wasn't interested in any 'upside' until one of the important resistance trendlines was convincingly taken out. It was, and I am long Bitcoin since $462. I expect at least mid $500s to be reached at some point down the line. Close to call, but looks like Huobi did start pumping first (according to bitcoinwisdom). Guys possibly same whale group playing both major exchanges?? YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9%? - Still that's a bit to have missed out on It was 420 when we first started discussing your position not 445 |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 21, 2014, 12:50:32 AM |
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YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9% - Still that's a bit to have missed out on Had you followed my TA 101 (yes, I know I was favouring break down as opposed to break out), you would have known to go long at the same point as I did. I have been watching patiently for days on the market to decide using pretty much the same chart I posted my last TA 101A thread. As soon as I got the right signals, I took my position. Not saying that I am totally fantastic or anything and I have only recently started to discover this stuff and the trendlines I drew up were very simple....but it works, or at least gives the investor a much better idea of when to take a position and when not to.
Despite having been bearish, I am glad Bitcoin is going up as it means I make money as I have banned myself from shorting and/or using leverage.Forget about $454. If Bitcoin gets down there it will probably mean the break out has failed and we are correcting, in which case, you probably won't want to buy Bitcoins. Good man! honest. I mean if, we go comfortably around $510-525 overnight - We'll take a position. Want Bitcoin to rocket this year too, will catch before it does! |
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bitcoinsrus
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May 21, 2014, 12:52:46 AM |
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YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9% - Still that's a bit to have missed out on Had you followed my TA 101 (yes, I know I was favouring break down as opposed to break out), you would have known to go long at the same point as I did. I have been watching patiently for days on the market to decide using pretty much the same chart I posted my last TA 101A thread. As soon as I got the right signals, I took my position. Not saying that I am totally fantastic or anything and I have only recently started to discover this stuff and the trendlines I drew up were very simple....but it works, or at least gives the investor a much better idea of when to take a position and when not to.
Despite having been bearish, I am glad Bitcoin is going up as it means I make money as I have banned myself from shorting and/or using leverage.Forget about $454. If Bitcoin gets down there it will probably mean the break out has failed and we are correcting, in which case, you probably won't want to buy Bitcoins. Good man! honest. I mean if, we go comfortably around $510-525 overnight - We'll take a position. Want Bitcoin to rocket this year too, will catch before it does! Its hovering just sub of 500. Like waiting for the ball to drop or something >< Might go north of 500 or stay where it is. Lets see what happens. |
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RockHound (OP)
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May 21, 2014, 12:53:36 AM |
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It did kick off on stamp not china ......
Being a bear you have now missed over 21% on this current movement @ 489 spot
You better hope for a retraction otherwise you win the award of "A DICK FOR A TICK "
How about going and looking at the fkn charts before you go making dumb arsed comments like that? Go on, do it! Look at the phucking charts and then try and tell me that volume on Huobi didn't take off a full 10 minutes before Bitstamp. You can't even do the most simple of diligence before you go shooting your mouth off and you say you work in 'finance'? And I wasn't interested in any 'upside' until one of the important resistance trendlines was convincingly taken out. It was, and I am long Bitcoin since $462. I expect at least mid $500s to be reached at some point down the line. Close to call, but looks like Huobi did start pumping first (according to bitcoinwisdom). Guys possibly same whale group playing both major exchanges?? YY, could have comfortably bought-in @ $445 since we've been ready to go. So it's not quite as bad as 21%, closer to 9%? - Still that's a bit to have missed out on It was 420 when we first started discussing your position not 445 True had opportunity, but on average. If we'd committed to $420 median would have been up around 15% |
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