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Author Topic: Price drop last couple of days, why?!?!  (Read 1148 times)
R04dRunn3r
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January 29, 2012, 06:44:27 PM
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Why is the Bitcoin value USD/EUR going down. Who is dumping there Bitcoins? Are it the miners, who keep mining without any demand for Bitcoins? Or is it a big invester selling out after the buying a crap load of them in early Jan?

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January 29, 2012, 08:49:02 PM
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By how much % +- are you referring to?

It's supposed to fluctuate somewhat.

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January 29, 2012, 09:47:40 PM
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The storms in Molvania caused problems with the block harvest last week. Some of the blocks were found to be infected with weevil bits. The resulting loss of confidence caused the short-term price drop.
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January 30, 2012, 03:06:40 AM
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Why is the Bitcoin value USD/EUR going down. Who is dumping there Bitcoins? Are it the miners, who keep mining without any demand for Bitcoins? Or is it a big invester selling out after the buying a crap load of them in early Jan?
Big investers are not likely to sell out at a lower price, since people who have money are also generally people who can earn money.

The currently most popular theory to this is the failure of the Manipulator to continue manipulating the price, so the market will gradually fall without any new demand. Edward50 has performed some analysis of the Manipulator model.

Some forum members, including myself, argue that this is merely a scheduled correction to the unsustainable triple top we had recently, and the speculators are adjusting. In this model, the Manipulator plays a smaller or non-existent role.

A small but vocal minority, often refered to as "permabulls", continue to argue that this is a perfect oppertunity to buy in and that the single digits are irrational based on fundamentals. Technomage has performed some analysis on this.
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January 30, 2012, 05:33:46 AM
 #5

Is it because The Good Wife effect/anticipation faded? There must be many people directly or indirectly involved in the production of the episode, and some would make speculation on the TV's impact.
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January 30, 2012, 05:48:18 AM
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the answer is actually quite complicated if you are not a technical analysis pro like myself  Wink but seriously, we basically formed a B or X triangle in Elliott Wave terms after an initial thrust down from hitting the daily 200sma and we were due for a pullback. Basically, we hit the 200 and reversed hard to test the daily 50sma at 4.62 in a classic 3 wave A or W. the following couple of weeks traced out a B or X triangle (same thing really but the W points towards a 3 wave coming after to hit a new low before reversing while the A points towards 5 waves down to hit the real bottom before we head higher). Based on the action from the last couple of days, we might have bottomed even though we did not retest the lows of 4.62 basically because past of the X wave retraced all the way back to 7 which allowed the Y or C wave down to truncate. In other words, the low from yesterday might be the low.

In longer terms, the 'next' wave up is either going to be a C or 3 up. The 3 entails that this correction from the summer is done while the C entails that we are eventually going sub 2 after this correction upwards finishes. If its a 3 I would expect it to measure the same percent as the move from 2 to 7.2 since, in currencies, the the 1st and 3rd wave are usually the same length while the 5th usually extends in a bubble looking wave. Either way there is most likely going to be a wave that takes us to 14-18ish before we either correct again before heading higher or head down hard again to retest or break past 2. Hold on to your hats guys, the ride is going to be bumpy  Smiley

waveaddict out.

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January 30, 2012, 06:27:06 AM
 #7

lol, but to answer op, there were more sellers than buyers..
but WHY there were more sellers
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January 30, 2012, 06:32:19 AM
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the answer is actually quite complicated if you are not a technical analysis pro like myself  Wink but seriously, we basically formed a B or X triangle in Elliott Wave terms after an initial thrust down from hitting the daily 200sma and we were due for a pullback. Basically, we hit the 200 and reversed hard to test the daily 50sma at 4.62 in a classic 3 wave A or W. the following couple of weeks traced out a B or X triangle (same thing really but the W points towards a 3 wave coming after to hit a new low before reversing while the A points towards 5 waves down to hit the real bottom before we head higher). Based on the action from the last couple of days, we might have bottomed even though we did not retest the lows of 4.62 basically because past of the X wave retraced all the way back to 7 which allowed the Y or C wave down to truncate. In other words, the low from yesterday might be the low.

In longer terms, the 'next' wave up is either going to be a C or 3 up. The 3 entails that this correction from the summer is done while the C entails that we are eventually going sub 2 after this correction upwards finishes. If its a 3 I would expect it to measure the same percent as the move from 2 to 7.2 since, in currencies, the the 1st and 3rd wave are usually the same length while the 5th usually extends in a bubble looking wave. Either way there is most likely going to be a wave that takes us to 14-18ish before we either correct again before heading higher or head down hard again to retest or break past 2. Hold on to your hats guys, the ride is going to be bumpy  Smiley

waveaddict out.

no...  I am pretty sure it was because there was more sellers than buyers. Go ask any Econ teacher and they will tell you the same, not voodoo mumbo jumbo.

Yes, there were more sellers than buyers but that was basically because of wave theorem and technical analysis behind the scenes which encompasses trader sentiment and socioeconomic thinking. I've traded stocks and currencies for 5 years and any real daytrader can tell you that what I have just said is basic knowledge. This is not econ for a reason...econ majors are the worst traders and the best people to fade when they make a market calls. Take this from someone who bought in a 3.2 sold out at 7.1 and bought back in at 4.82 and has been long ever since. Its not rocket science and after reading many posts on the speculative forum, most of you so called bitcoin traders have no clue what you are doing.

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January 30, 2012, 06:34:06 AM
 #9

lol, but to answer op, there were more sellers than buyers..
but WHY there were more sellers
Because there are too many people "investing" in bitcoin just because, instead of offering products and services in exchange of bitcoins (which is what will really help bitcoin adoption).

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waveaddict
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January 30, 2012, 06:37:24 AM
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lol, but to answer op, there were more sellers than buyers..
but WHY there were more sellers

basically, my post above describes 'why' there were more sellers than buyers after 7.2 and 'why' there has been more buyers than sellers after 4.62.

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January 30, 2012, 06:47:55 AM
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lol, but to answer op, there were more sellers than buyers..
but WHY there were more sellers
Because there are too many people "investing" in bitcoin just because, instead of offering products and services in exchange of bitcoins (which is what will really help bitcoin adoption).

somewhat, but that was basically because of the falling price after the summer, once the price starts rising day after day again which will inevitably lead to more media recognition and excitement more people will come into the bitcoin fold and the volume of new products and services will explode. Where goes the price, so too the products and services. Patience...bitcoin is just getting started and its future is looking bright

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January 30, 2012, 06:53:15 AM
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lol, but to answer op, there were more sellers than buyers..
but WHY there were more sellers
Because there are too many people "investing" in bitcoin just because, instead of offering products and services in exchange of bitcoins (which is what will really help bitcoin adoption).
What products or services do you suggest that can help bitcoin adoption?

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January 30, 2012, 10:22:52 AM
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the answer is actually quite complicated if you are not a technical analysis pro like myself  Wink but seriously, we basically formed a B or X triangle in Elliott Wave terms after an initial thrust down from hitting the daily 200sma and we were due for a pullback. Basically, we hit the 200 and reversed hard to test the daily 50sma at 4.62 in a classic 3 wave A or W. the following couple of weeks traced out a B or X triangle (same thing really but the W points towards a 3 wave coming after to hit a new low before reversing while the A points towards 5 waves down to hit the real bottom before we head higher). Based on the action from the last couple of days, we might have bottomed even though we did not retest the lows of 4.62 basically because past of the X wave retraced all the way back to 7 which allowed the Y or C wave down to truncate. In other words, the low from yesterday might be the low.

In longer terms, the 'next' wave up is either going to be a C or 3 up. The 3 entails that this correction from the summer is done while the C entails that we are eventually going sub 2 after this correction upwards finishes. If its a 3 I would expect it to measure the same percent as the move from 2 to 7.2 since, in currencies, the the 1st and 3rd wave are usually the same length while the 5th usually extends in a bubble looking wave. Either way there is most likely going to be a wave that takes us to 14-18ish before we either correct again before heading higher or head down hard again to retest or break past 2. Hold on to your hats guys, the ride is going to be bumpy  Smiley

waveaddict out.

Yes, there were more sellers than buyers but that was basically because of wave theorem and technical analysis behind the scenes which encompasses trader sentiment and socioeconomic thinking. I've traded stocks and currencies for 5 years and any real daytrader can tell you that what I have just said is basic knowledge. This is not econ for a reason...econ majors are the worst traders and the best people to fade when they make a market calls. Take this from someone who bought in a 3.2 sold out at 7.1 and bought back in at 4.82 and has been long ever since. Its not rocket science and after reading many posts on the speculative forum, most of you so called bitcoin traders have no clue what you are doing.

I doubt these theories apply very much. Bitcoin is not traded in a very large volume, and certainly not by professional traders. Common stocks can be read a little easier since everyone is using these types of ideas to trade. In effect they are creating the very thing they are theorizing. All it takes is a single large investment or withdraw from bitcoin to shift the market. Most the large moves happened rapidly. If someone makes a large enough purchase there are hardly any sellers online to stop the buyers from pushing the price up. Even someone like me with 300-400 bitcoins can change the price 20 cents.
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January 30, 2012, 03:43:24 PM
 #14

What products or services do you suggest that can help bitcoin adoption?

Just about anything. There are a lot of niches to be filled. I will build an online game with a bitcoin based economy.

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R04dRunn3r
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January 30, 2012, 05:57:13 PM
 #15

Thanks for the reactions, but I have to agree with Goat that there are just more sellers than buyers.
Bitcoin need to be backed by a bigger economy. People have to start using Bitcoin as a everyday method of payment.
But I'm no economic expert just a IT guy making some d$$ on the side.

Myself, I'm using Bitcoin to buy silver and gold.

By the way, nice one with the storm and other compleet BS, was laughing my a$$ off.

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waveaddict
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January 30, 2012, 07:19:58 PM
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these waves do not control people.

that is exactly what they do. everything in nature works in cycles (waves) along with human emotion which inevitably drives the price of any good, service, or medium of exchange.

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