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DannyHamilton
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 May 21, 2014, 04:27:10 PM

So, what are the odds of life spontaneously creating itself from dead material? It's far less probable than that of creating an already existing bitcoin wallet. Yet, here we are

The part I highlighted in red appears to imply that you may have made some false assumptions about the part I highlighted in blue.

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E-C.Guru
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 May 21, 2014, 05:34:50 PM

So, what are the odds of life spontaneously creating itself from dead material? It's far less probable than that of creating an already existing bitcoin wallet. Yet, here we are

The part I highlighted in red appears to imply that you may have made some false assumptions about the part I highlighted in blue.

http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm

Quote
the fraction 1 divided by 1 followed by 340 million zeros

Isn't that less of a chance than:

Quote
it's a one with 33 zeroes after it.

Scientists tells me a forum-scientist is wrong. I make the assumption he is right.
DannyHamilton
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 May 21, 2014, 06:14:41 PM

http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm

Quote
the fraction 1 divided by 1 followed by 340 million zeros

Scientists tells me a forum-scientist is wrong. I make the assumption he is right.

You seem to be assuming that Robert E. Kofahl is a scientist, or that his math is based on reasonable assumptions.

Quote
Reasoning from these and other mathematical probability calculations, we can conclude that, without God the Creator, life's probability is zero.

It looks to me as if he is trying to manipulate the mathematics to push an particular non-scientific viewpoint.

More specifically, you say "Yet, here we are" as if the fact that we exist proves that things far less likely than the brute-forcing of a bitcoin private key can happen by chance.  Then, to demonstrate this, you use something published by someone saying that the fact that we are here did not happen by chance.

Now we see why I asked you to "settle the debate over whether there was an intelligence outside the universe that was involved in the process" before we tried to discuss probabilities, and occurrences.

jonald_fyookball
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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

 May 21, 2014, 06:34:36 PM

http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm

Quote
the fraction 1 divided by 1 followed by 340 million zeros

Scientists tells me a forum-scientist is wrong. I make the assumption he is right.

You seem to be assuming that Robert E. Kofahl is a scientist, or that his math is based on reasonable assumptions.

Quote
Reasoning from these and other mathematical probability calculations, we can conclude that, without God the Creator, life's probability is zero.

It looks to me as if he is trying to manipulate the mathematics to push an particular non-scientific viewpoint.

More specifically, you say "Yet, here we are" as if the fact that we exist proves that things far less likely than the brute-forcing of a bitcoin private key can happen by chance.  Then, to demonstrate this, you use something published by someone saying that the fact that we are here did not happen by chance.

Either it's a non-sequitor, or its gambler's fallacy.

Either way, its freakin irrelevant! lol.

E-C.Guru
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 May 21, 2014, 06:40:14 PM

http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm

Quote
the fraction 1 divided by 1 followed by 340 million zeros

Scientists tells me a forum-scientist is wrong. I make the assumption he is right.

You seem to be assuming that Robert E. Kofahl is a scientist, or that his math is based on reasonable assumptions.

Quote
Reasoning from these and other mathematical probability calculations, we can conclude that, without God the Creator, life's probability is zero.

It looks to me as if he is trying to manipulate the mathematics to push an particular non-scientific viewpoint.

More specifically, you say "Yet, here we are" as if the fact that we exist proves that things far less likely than the brute-forcing of a bitcoin private key can happen by chance.  Then, to demonstrate this, you use something published by someone saying that the fact that we are here did not happen by chance.

Now we see why I asked you to "settle the debate over whether there was an intelligence outside the universe that was involved in the process" before we tried to discuss probabilities, and occurrences.

Robert E. Whatever is also talking about a professor. Did you read that long into the article?

I say "Yet, here we are" as a testiment to the fact that "it" did happen. The spontaneous creation of life.

And now we know that it was far less probable than someone creating an already existing wallet. Yet, here we are.
E-C.Guru
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 May 21, 2014, 06:42:23 PM

http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm

Quote
the fraction 1 divided by 1 followed by 340 million zeros

Scientists tells me a forum-scientist is wrong. I make the assumption he is right.

You seem to be assuming that Robert E. Kofahl is a scientist, or that his math is based on reasonable assumptions.

Quote
Reasoning from these and other mathematical probability calculations, we can conclude that, without God the Creator, life's probability is zero.

It looks to me as if he is trying to manipulate the mathematics to push an particular non-scientific viewpoint.

More specifically, you say "Yet, here we are" as if the fact that we exist proves that things far less likely than the brute-forcing of a bitcoin private key can happen by chance.  Then, to demonstrate this, you use something published by someone saying that the fact that we are here did not happen by chance.

Either it's a non-sequitor, or its gambler's fallacy.

Either way, its freakin irrelevant! lol.

Irrelevant is a huge understatement, this is absolutely meaningless  EDIT: Meaningless, yet here we are.
ethought
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 May 21, 2014, 06:56:41 PM

Lets say you build a super ASIC on 12nm (4 generations ahead of current tech) process that could create, validate, and steal one trillion key pairs per second (1 TK/s). That would be about 50,000x more powerful than faster GPU’s today. Lets also say you built a thousand of them and ran them continually with no downtime 24/7/365. In 1 year you could brute force 3*10^28 possible addresses.
If there are 1 quadrillion funded addresses you would still have a ~1% chance of colliding with a random funded address in the next 1,000 years.
Comparatively speaking, your odds of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 280,000, so you’re about 500,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning than to find an address within the first year. Since that’s also a big number, the odds are equivalent to being struck by lightning about 4.6 times in your lifetime

Man struck by lightning 7 times.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/inside-the-life-of-the-man-known-as-the-spark-ranger/2013/08/15/947cf2d8-ea40-11e2-8f22-de4bd2a2bd39_story.html

sgk
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!! HODL !!

 May 21, 2014, 07:07:20 PM

Lets say you build a super ASIC on 12nm (4 generations ahead of current tech) process that could create, validate, and steal one trillion key pairs per second (1 TK/s). That would be about 50,000x more powerful than faster GPU’s today. Lets also say you built a thousand of them and ran them continually with no downtime 24/7/365. In 1 year you could brute force 3*10^28 possible addresses.
If there are 1 quadrillion funded addresses you would still have a ~1% chance of colliding with a random funded address in the next 1,000 years.
Comparatively speaking, your odds of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 280,000, so you’re about 500,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning than to find an address within the first year. Since that’s also a big number, the odds are equivalent to being struck by lightning about 4.6 times in your lifetime

Man struck by lightning 7 times.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/inside-the-life-of-the-man-known-as-the-spark-ranger/2013/08/15/947cf2d8-ea40-11e2-8f22-de4bd2a2bd39_story.html

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000
The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000

http://news.nationalgeographic.co.in/news/2004/06/0623_040623_lightningfacts.html

 ▄▄████▄▄        ▄▄██████████████▄▄      ███████████████████████▄▄      ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███ ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄     ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄▄▄        ▀██████████████████████▄████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀██████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀████▀██████████████████████▄▄  ▀▀████████████████████████      ▀▀█████████████████▀▀           ▀▀███████▀▀ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ ■  Semux uses .100% original codebase.■  Superfast with .30 seconds instant finality.■  Tested .5000 tx per block. on open network █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █
DannyHamilton
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 May 21, 2014, 07:08:55 PM

Comparatively speaking, your odds of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 280,000, so you’re about 500,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning than to find an address within the first year. Since that’s also a big number, the odds are equivalent to being struck by lightning about 4.6 times in your lifetime[/i]
Man struck by lightning 7 times.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/inside-the-life-of-the-man-known-as-the-spark-ranger/2013/08/15/947cf2d8-ea40-11e2-8f22-de4bd2a2bd39_story.html

Lightning strikes are a bad example of probability.  It assumes that everyone has an equal chance of being struck by lightning, and that the distribution is random across the globe.

In actuality, there are some areas that have significantly more electrical storms, and some people spend much more time exposed to the opportunity to be struck.

If you really want to use a lightning based example, I prefer this one:

• probability of getting struck by lightning in any given year: 1/280000.
• probability of taking a shit at any given point in time: 1/(60*24) = 1/1440 (assuming you take a crap every day and the actual process takes 1 minute)
• probability of getting struck by lightning while taking a crap in any given year: 1/(280000*1440) = 1/1.47E11 = 2.48E-9
• probability of taking a crap while being in a situation where being struck by lightning can actually occur = 1/1440 = 0.25 = 1.74E-4
• probability of finding a collision: 1E-65
• getting hit by lightning while taking a crap for how many years in a row is equally probable as finding a collision: log(1E-65) / log(1.74E-4) = 17.3

is my math roughly correct now?

If so, I can say: "Finding a collision is about as likely as being struck by lightning while taking a crap every year for 17 years in a row".

You'll notice that even with the addition of the requirement of actually being in the process of "taking a crap" at the very moment of being struck by lightning, it is still significantly less likely than being strucm 4.6 (or 7) times in a lifetime.

RoxxR
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 May 21, 2014, 07:11:49 PM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?

Source?
sgk
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!! HODL !!

 May 21, 2014, 07:13:04 PM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?

Source?

FUD

 ▄▄████▄▄        ▄▄██████████████▄▄      ███████████████████████▄▄      ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███ ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄     ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄▄▄        ▀██████████████████████▄████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀██████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀████▀██████████████████████▄▄  ▀▀████████████████████████      ▀▀█████████████████▀▀           ▀▀███████▀▀ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ ■  Semux uses .100% original codebase.■  Superfast with .30 seconds instant finality.■  Tested .5000 tx per block. on open network █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █
DannyHamilton
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 May 21, 2014, 07:16:34 PM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?

Source?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=107172.0

DannyHamilton
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 May 21, 2014, 07:17:56 PM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?
Source?
FUD

Nope.  Not FUD.  The script was written and made public in 2012.  It doesn't matter.  2160 is a very big number.  Bigger than many people seem to be able to comprehend.

sgk
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 May 21, 2014, 07:28:17 PM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?
Source?
FUD

Nope.  Not FUD.  The script was written and made public in 2012.  It doesn't matter.  2160 is a very big number.  Bigger than many people seem to be able to comprehend.

OK, I apologize for my comment.

This is somewhat similar to that site directory.io

Anyone could create N number of public address / private keys but the total number is so huge there's almost zero chance of someone finding an actual public-private combination that is in use by someone else.

 ▄▄████▄▄        ▄▄██████████████▄▄      ███████████████████████▄▄      ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀████████████████████████████▄▄       ▀▀███ ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄     ▀▀██████████████████████▄▄▄▄        ▀██████████████████████▄████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀██████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀███████████████████████████▄▄        ▀▀████▀██████████████████████▄▄  ▀▀████████████████████████      ▀▀█████████████████▀▀           ▀▀███████▀▀ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █ ■  Semux uses .100% original codebase.■  Superfast with .30 seconds instant finality.■  Tested .5000 tx per block. on open network █ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ █
ShakyhandsBTCer
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 June 14, 2014, 06:46:33 PM

Is it not a worry because the mathematical probability is so infinitesimally small

You answered your own question with the proper RNG you should be just fine.

The chances are extremely small.

If this were to happen it would likely be due to some kind of attack at your RNG.

TheTruth4
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 June 15, 2014, 06:50:07 AM

Never thought there might be such a problem
Harley997
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 June 15, 2014, 05:24:55 PM

Never thought there might be such a problem

It is not a problem. The chances of this happening are smaller then you could likely imagine, smaller then I can imagine.

EDIT: you have a greater chance of having the same DNA of someone not related to you

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PRIMEDICE
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newIndia
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 June 15, 2014, 05:43:38 PM

As a member of BitcoinTalk, you are surrounded by legends; phenomenal successes and catastrophic failures. The forum was created by Satoshi Nakamoto and saw the first exchange, the first altcoin, and the first ICO, but also catastrophic software flaws, massive thefts, and incredible scams. You too have an opportunity to become part of the forum's history: whether and in what way you do so is up to you.
ShakyhandsBTCer
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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin

 June 16, 2014, 03:48:03 AM

Never thought there might be such a problem

It is not a problem. The chances of this happening are smaller then you could likely imagine, smaller then I can imagine.

EDIT: you have a greater chance of having the same DNA of someone not related to you

I can tell you with a good amount of certainty that you did not create a BTC address that belongs to someone else.
Confessions
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 June 16, 2014, 03:51:57 AM

What if someone made a computer script that automatically created addresses and checks the balances?