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Author Topic: are we under attack?  (Read 2117 times)
reg
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January 30, 2012, 10:41:37 AM
 #1

hi, any clever people out there can explain to me why are the BTC markets  falling (in General) so consistently over the past few weeks? some markets are going up but I am unfamiliar with these "instruments" and it looks remarkably similar to hedge fund operations on the currency exchanges. I thought we were going in a different direction  but  "feel" being manipulated again and as usual.  rge.
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January 30, 2012, 11:11:00 AM
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No, don't worry, this is just a few people that make a profit from selling now. They probably bought low and are now selling high. We go through this all the time, just relax.
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January 30, 2012, 11:46:52 AM
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reg
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January 30, 2012, 11:52:31 AM
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ok-thanks, fairly new so haven't caught up with history its just that the price now is not what I would call a "profitable " level. regards reg.
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January 30, 2012, 12:10:17 PM
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ok-thanks, fairly new so haven't caught up with history its just that the price now is not what I would call a "profitable " level. regards reg.

You can see historic charts for bitcoin prices at the bottom of this link:
http://bitcoinx.com/charts/
There have been a lot of ups and downs for the last year, they are updated live.
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January 30, 2012, 12:23:59 PM
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thanks- thats a useful link i will keep it. it does appear to co-inside with an increase in mining difficulty so that alone could explain it! . reg
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January 30, 2012, 12:32:59 PM
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thanks- thats a useful link i will keep it. it does appear to co-inside with an increase in mining difficulty so that alone could explain it! . reg
it goes the other way around in terms of cause and reaction/consequence

BTC price goes up ->
it is more profitable to mine ->
more people mine ->
network hashrate increases ->
difficulty increases

this continues until mining is profitable enough to stay but not profitable enough to join (initial costs etc..)


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January 30, 2012, 12:42:54 PM
 #8

thanks- thats a useful link i will keep it. it does appear to co-inside with an increase in mining difficulty so that alone could explain it! . reg

Costia got it right, difficulty is related to price, but for the most part it follows the price.

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reg
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January 30, 2012, 12:52:23 PM
 #9

ok that seems reasonable. just looked at another thread that is implying that something called bitcoinia is leveraging the markets. this is the behaviour that gave me the origional "feeling" when looking at the price. but as anyone can do what they want I suppose its wait and see? perhaps it will fail in bitcoin in the same way it failed in the currency markets (they get wiped out and the price rises again) I hope! reg
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January 30, 2012, 12:53:30 PM
 #10

You will be disappointed if you are looking an easy simple reason for why it's happening. 

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January 30, 2012, 12:55:44 PM
 #11

You will be disappointed if you are looking an easy simple reason for why it's happening. 
Shut it, Bear.

There is a simple reason. It’s The Manipulator.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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January 30, 2012, 01:00:07 PM
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Please remember, bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme.
BadBear
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January 30, 2012, 01:07:08 PM
 #13

You will be disappointed if you are looking an easy simple reason for why it's happening. 
Shut it, Bear.

There is a simple reason. It’s The Manipulator.

I figured that would be reg's next reply after he found the manipulator threads.  Wink

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reg
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January 30, 2012, 01:20:47 PM
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no, I haven't found the manipulator threads yet- but I will read them-until then Ive always had a good reasoned from bad bear  +1 . reg
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January 30, 2012, 01:25:00 PM
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BadBear
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January 30, 2012, 01:41:08 PM
 #16

no, I haven't found the manipulator threads yet- but I will read them-until then Ive always had a good reasoned from bad bear  +1 . reg
You should check out out the economics forums, there are a few good bitcoin centric threads there, should give you some reading material . Even the negative ones are worth reading for the replies at least.

Unless Especially if it involves aliens.

Here one that talks about your question.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58102.0



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January 30, 2012, 03:46:09 PM
 #17

thanks- thats a useful link i will keep it. it does appear to co-inside with an increase in mining difficulty so that alone could explain it! . reg

Costia got it right, difficulty is related to price, but for the most part it follows the price.

That may be true in the longer term as it indicates a profitable mining scenario, but not in the short term.  An increasing difficulty means that more coins are being mined than the previous average.  More coins being mined = more supply.  More supply = downward pressure resulting in a lower price.  This may not have been true in the past, because supply and demand were more "out of whack" than they are now and the market has stabilized a bit since the great bubble of 2011.

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Costia
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January 30, 2012, 03:55:38 PM
 #18

thanks- thats a useful link i will keep it. it does appear to co-inside with an increase in mining difficulty so that alone could explain it! . reg

Costia got it right, difficulty is related to price, but for the most part it follows the price.

That may be true in the longer term as it indicates a profitable mining scenario, but not in the short term.  An increasing difficulty means that more coins are being mined than the previous average.  More coins being mined = more supply.  More supply = downward pressure resulting in a lower price.  This may not have been true in the past, because supply and demand were more "out of whack" than they are now and the market has stabilized a bit since the great bubble of 2011.
but by the time the difficulty updates - this is already a "stale" indicator.
i would change your sentence to:
Quote
  An increasing difficulty means that more coins were being mined than the previous average. 
And I wouldnt call the current situation stable - the price dropped from 6.7 to 5.2 a few days ago
Another thing is the size of the change, short term changes in mining BTC are more likely to come from a "lucky streak" rather than the hashrate of the entire network jumping by 10% in a few days
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January 30, 2012, 04:32:57 PM
 #19

yes costa,  that was my original feeling- in fiat currency markets due to its size daily rates rarely change more than a 1 % or so. A change of 10% indicates intervention/crash/etc. I know BTC is relatively smaller but the ratio of % change gave me the  impression something was changing faster than normal but we do not supposedly have intervention and crashes like last year were quickly nailed to hacking wallets. I was just looking for causes but none were obvious. maybe its too soon to say what is "normal" so I for one am buying BTC.  reg
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January 30, 2012, 05:02:12 PM
 #20

but by the time the difficulty updates - this is already a "stale" indicator.
i would change your sentence to:
Quote
  An increasing difficulty means that more coins were being mined than the previous average. 
And I wouldnt call the current situation stable - the price dropped from 6.7 to 5.2 a few days ago
Another thing is the size of the change, short term changes in mining BTC are more likely to come from a "lucky streak" rather than the hashrate of the entire network jumping by 10% in a few days

Future difficulty projections (i.e. increasing/decreasing difficulty) is not a "stale" indicator.  It's an indicator that works to gauge current BTC supply, hence my "short term" description.  For example, right now the difficulty projection shows that 10% more BTC than normal is being mined during this cycle (right now, not "stale").

I wouldn't call the current situation stable either, but it has "stabilized a bit since the great bubble of 2011."  If you had been around 7 months ago, you would not dispute that..

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