Bitcoin has went up every single year since inception

[kokojie]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

[knightcoin]

... so some reason this posts makes me think about

Moore's law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

and

Carlson Curve
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlson_Curve

[zoinky]

Bitcoin will continue to astound, as long as the technology is sound.

[E-C.Guru]

Only when the time between cycles are greater and a bubble is at its highest in january it will be lower in december than january. I'd say that could last for 3-10 years then it will probably settle, somewhere.

[knightcoin]

Bitcoin will continue to astound, as long as the technology is sound.

very true, so fellows lets putting our coding skills, marketing, enthusiasm, talent and hard work on bitcoin's dream ...

[serenitys]

My question is this...

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

That's a hell of a jump at the end of the year so I totally missed the big stuff.

If Gox hadn't happened and things were business as usual, but all the China thing happened and all the good stuff, what do you guys think is a realistic place the market would be today?

Jan 1, 2014 $750....
May 21, 2014 ?

[zimmah]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80
increase of 300%

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70
increase of 487.5%

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25
increase of 165%

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730
increase of 5515%

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ? (i expect $2500 ish)

Expected increase 233%

[beetcoin]

just because it's gone up every year, does not mean it will go up this year. it's an indicator but not surefire.

[nickenburg]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

That looks really promising for the next december.
I think that means we could see a rise to alot higher then 1000 hopefully
But alot of people are still negative I hope when it rises again they will finally shut up  

[tuneman1980]

My question is this...

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

That's a hell of a jump at the end of the year so I totally missed the big stuff.

If Gox hadn't happened and things were business as usual, but all the China thing happened and all the good stuff, what do you guys think is a realistic place the market would be today?

Jan 1, 2014 $750....
May 21, 2014 ?

I think that back in Jan we were still in a massive bubble and BTC was overpriced.  So I think that we should be at about $738 today using regression analysis at http://cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

[serenitys]

If you took the average increase (with presumed overvaluation) of all 4 years into account and added it to the 750 for Jan '14, what would the price look like for the end of 2014, and do you think that's a reasonable gauge?

I'd like to hear from bears and bulls (and whales!) if yall don't mind sharing.

[serenitys]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

[frienemy]

If you took the average increase (with presumed overvaluation) of all 4 years into account and added it to the 750 for Jan '14, what would the price look like for the end of 2014, and do you think that's a reasonable gauge?

I'd like to hear from bears and bulls (and whales!) if yall don't mind sharing.

Price would be at 12.127 USD then. I don't think that's very probable, because we have begun 2014 with a massive downward movement. Furthermore, this figure would already mean mainstream adoption IMO and I don't believe we will already reach this this year (although I'm a bull). We have only time left for a single "bubble" this year and I highly doubt it will take us above 10.000. In case the "bubble" coincides with the end of the year, then we might see high quatruple digits before the retracement.

[frienemy]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

If you bought in 2010, there's simply no way you would have hodled your complete stash until now. You would have died of multiple heart attacks or by eyes popping out while staring at the chart by now.

[davidgdg]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

If you bought in 2010, there's simply no way you would have hodled your complete stash until now. You would have died of multiple heart attacks or by eyes popping out while staring at the chart by now.

 

[serenitys]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

If you bought in 2010, there's simply no way you would have hodled your complete stash until now. You would have died of multiple heart attacks or by eyes popping out while staring at the chart by now.

Well yeah...but it was a pretend scenario. Just wanted to know if I did the math right because that doesn't even seem real.

I can only imagine the hard core nerds that tossed down a grand for bitcoin in Jan 2010...I know they've bought an island by now... 

[Skele]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though...  

If you bought in 2010, there's simply no way you would have hodled your complete stash until now. You would have died of multiple heart attacks or by eyes popping out while staring at the chart by now.

Well yeah...but it was a pretend scenario. Just wanted to know if I did the math right because that doesn't even seem real.

I can only imagine the hard core nerds that tossed down a grand for bitcoin in Jan 2010...I know they've bought an island by now...  

In fact they dint spent any USD, at that time the guys were mining them with pcs.. the hardcore nerds just mined with their cpus at rate of 5-10 per day easily..so they dont even spent a buck

[bitcoinsrus]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

If you bought in 2010, there's simply no way you would have hodled your complete stash until now. You would have died of multiple heart attacks or by eyes popping out while staring at the chart by now.

Well yeah...but it was a pretend scenario. Just wanted to know if I did the math right because that doesn't even seem real.

I can only imagine the hard core nerds that tossed down a grand for bitcoin in Jan 2010...I know they've bought an island by now... 

In June 2010.  I told my friend I bought $20 in zynga facebook poker chips.  He laughed at me saying, "You spent money on virtual coins?"

I wish I had googled that.

[oda.krell]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

Sorry, but, no.

This is exactly the kind of naive presentation of the (admittedly) impressive rise of Bitcoin that I'd prefer would be avoided.

You can't simply pick a date you like (Jan 1st) and then compare it to the same date next year. Otherwise, I'll pick another date, just as arbitrary, and show that your claim is plain wrong:

June 2011: 32 USD
June 2012: 7 USD
June 2013: 130 USD

You can make a similar, more substantial claim about annualized growth rates, but at some point you will need to admit the extreme volatility, and the long stretches of decline as well.

[johnyj]

Risk adjusted return (reduce volatility by reducing leverage) is still the highest among any kind of assets in human history

Suppose that the biggest downside risk is 90%, so if you reduce the exposure to 1%, you will have 0.9% maximum risk with 56% return. Normally at 1% maximum risk, 5%-10% return is already top performer