Bitcoin has went up every single year since inception

[BitchicksHusband]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

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[kokojie]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

Well they bought cheap, but probably not $0.002 cheap. Nobody was really buying much at that time, not much outside interest. The 10000 BTC pizza transaction occured on May 2010, and that was the start of Bitcoin really starting to gain value. Before that, Satoshi accounted for more than half of the mined coins, and these coin never moved to this day. Goat probably started late 2010 or early 2011, I can't imagine his average price be lower than $1.

[serenitys]

Can you expound on that a little about Satoshi's coins? He/she/they held the first majority and they're showing on the blockchain but have never been spent? Or did I misunderstand?  If that's correct, what would they be worth right now?

[piramida]

Sorry, but, no.

This is exactly the kind of naive presentation of the (admittedly) impressive rise of Bitcoin that I'd prefer would be avoided.

You can't simply pick a date you like (Jan 1st) and then compare it to the same date next year. Otherwise, I'll pick another date, just as arbitrary, and show that your claim is plain wrong:

June 2011: 32 USD
June 2012: 7 USD
June 2013: 130 USD

You can make a similar, more substantial claim about annualized growth rates, but at some point you will need to admit the extreme volatility, and the long stretches of decline as well.

There is other, simpler, formula. The minimal value of one bitcoin has grown at least 4x YoY since it's inception, no matter what dates or intervals you look at. I have used that metric since 2012, and it holds quite well.

[Gurrty]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

I know why. Goat owe me 4105 BTC. This is a serious scam and he is playing rich with MY money. 2012 I invested a lot in his Tygrr-bot. I thought it sounded like a cool arbitrage bot. It was hard to go profit and a lesser amount was lost to exchange failure. The project was ended but much money was left. He chose to refund all invested with 90-100%. But ONE person owned more than 50% of all funded 10000 BTC, that was me. We made a contract with 1% interest, 1% payback each week. That would last in 100 weeks or almost two years and after that period his debt was ended to me. He payed me for 11 weeks. He still owes me 4105 BTC in principle payment with zero interest accounted for.

Where is justice?

[frienemy]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

I know why. Goat owe me 4105 BTC. This is a serious scam and he is playing rich with MY money. 2012 I invested a lot in his Tygrr-bot. I thought it sounded like a cool arbitrage bot. It was hard to go profit and a lesser amount was lost to exchange failure. The project was ended but much money was left. He chose to refund all invested with 90-100%. But ONE person owned more than 50% of all funded 10000 BTC, that was me. We made a contract with 1% interest, 1% payback each week. That would last in 100 weeks or almost two years and after that period his debt was ended to me. He payed me for 11 weeks. He still owes me 4105 BTC in principle payment with zero interest accounted for.

Where is justice?

Don't make accusations without proof or you are out of this forum faster than you think.

[oda.krell]

Risk adjusted return (reduce volatility by reducing leverage) is still the highest among any kind of assets in human history

Suppose that the biggest downside risk is 90%, so if you reduce the exposure to 1%, you will have 0.9% maximum risk with 56% return. Normally at 1% maximum risk, 5%-10% return is already top performer

That's a great way to think of it, and I actually didn't know the concept before (although I guess I practice it every time I trade and base my order size on  the same calculation -- I just never thought of applying it to an investment as a whole). It's a much better way to describe the huge opportunity Bitcoin presents than OP's "price goes higher every year" statement.

That said, the corollary to what you say is that you indeed have to reduce leverage to reduce volatility. And I'm not sure if the majority of newcomers do so, judging by threads like this.

[Gurrty]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though... 

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

I know why. Goat owe me 4105 BTC. This is a serious scam and he is playing rich with MY money. 2012 I invested a lot in his Tygrr-bot. I thought it sounded like a cool arbitrage bot. It was hard to go profit and a lesser amount was lost to exchange failure. The project was ended but much money was left. He chose to refund all invested with 90-100%. But ONE person owned more than 50% of all funded 10000 BTC, that was me. We made a contract with 1% interest, 1% payback each week. That would last in 100 weeks or almost two years and after that period his debt was ended to me. He payed me for 11 weeks. He still owes me 4105 BTC in principle payment with zero interest accounted for.

Where is justice?

Don't make accusations without proof or you are out of this forum faster than you think.

This is a true story.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622250.0

[kokojie]

well, if it's true, try to get him scammer tagged instead of complaining in my thread.

[TERA]

[Bit_Happy]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

This puts a lot of importance on only 2 data points per year.
What if BTC hits ~$3,500 by October and "crashes" to end the year at ~$740. Using only two prices per year will not show the new all-time high, but the long-term uptrend will still be in place.

[zimmah]

well, regardless, if you buy some bitcoin and hold on to them for 6 months, chances are very high that you'll be much better of than you were before.

no matter when you buy.

and if you hold for a year the odds are even more in your favor.

[tuneman1980]

well, regardless, if you buy some bitcoin and hold on to them for 6 months, chances are very high that you'll be much better of than you were before.

no matter when you buy.

and if you hold for a year the odds are even more in your favor.

Not to mention that Bitcoin is up 412.45% from a year ago. http://cryptocoinstats.com/performancetracker.php

[BitchicksHusband]

Oh hold up...am I doing the math right on this?

Jan 2010

Bit is .002
If you bought $10.00 worth, you'd own 5000 btc?
And if you held onto it through all this time, all 5k, to today's $493, your bitcoin would be worth $2,465,000

And at one time, when it went to $1100, your bitcoin was worth $5,500,000??

LOL wow, no wonder yall are steamed! But hey, if that's actually correct above and I didn't do it wrong (because it seems like it really can't be that simple), and someone out there just held onto 5k btc from the beginning, to end up with 2 million dollars on a $10 buy is insane.

Even more insane if they bought a few hundred/thousand bucks worth.

Makes the rest of us want to go slam our heads into the walls though...  

Yes.  Why do you think that Goat is buying Lambos and Risto has a castle in Estonia?  They bought A LOT of coins really, really cheap.

I know why. Goat owe me 4105 BTC. This is a serious scam and he is playing rich with MY money. 2012 I invested a lot in his Tygrr-bot. I thought it sounded like a cool arbitrage bot. It was hard to go profit and a lesser amount was lost to exchange failure. The project was ended but much money was left. He chose to refund all invested with 90-100%. But ONE person owned more than 50% of all funded 10000 BTC, that was me. We made a contract with 1% interest, 1% payback each week. That would last in 100 weeks or almost two years and after that period his debt was ended to me. He payed me for 11 weeks. He still owes me 4105 BTC in principle payment with zero interest accounted for.

Where is justice?

Do you have a written contract?  If so, I would think a lawyer would easily take the case for 4105BTC *30% (lawyer's fee) * 666 ($/coin) = $820,179.

And you'll end up with around $2 million.

Better than sitting around moping on this thread.

[rocks]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

Roughly speaking, over the long term price is directly correlated to adoption.

Since 1/1/2012 when the price was $5, we have gone up 135x to $675 (current coinbase price). The question is do you think bitcoin usage has gone up 135 times in the past 2 1/2 years. Personally I think it has given the momentum of new services, or at least will be soon.

What we are witnessing in the price is simply growing S-curve adoption. This is why people incorrectly keep thinking bitcoin is in a bubble, even though each "bubble" is higher than the last one. What we are witnessing for the first time is exponential S-curve represented in price, that has not happened before. Maybe VCs in Facebook and Google could see it, but most of us never have.

This takes all the standard investment advice and throws it out. If price equals adoption, and that adoption is growing along a typical S-curve, the price is virtually guaranteed to rise during the "early adopter" phase where less than 3% of people use it.

[Bit_Happy]

When you compare January 1st price vs Dec 31st price of every year, Bitcoin has always been going up, and most of the time significantly up.

January 1st 2010: around $0.002 per Bitcoin
December 31st 2010: around $0.80

January 1st 2011: around $0.80
December 31st 2011: around $4.70

January 1st 2012: around $5.00
December 31st 2012: around $13.25

January 1st 2013: around $13.00
December 31st 2013: around $730

January 1st 2014: around $750
December 31st 2014: ? ? ? ? ?

Do you think this year is an exception?

Roughly speaking, over the long term price is directly correlated to adoption.

Since 1/1/2012 when the price was $5, we have gone up 135x to $675 (current coinbase price). The question is do you think bitcoin usage has gone up 135 times in the past 2 1/2 years. Personally I think it has given the momentum of new services, or at least will be soon.

What we are witnessing in the price is simply growing S-curve adoption. This is why people incorrectly keep thinking bitcoin is in a bubble, even though each "bubble" is higher than the last one. What we are witnessing for the first time is exponential S-curve represented in price, that has not happened before. Maybe VCs in Facebook and Google could see it, but most of us never have.

This takes all the standard investment advice and throws it out. If price equals adoption, and that adoption is growing along a typical S-curve, the price is virtually guaranteed to rise during the "early adopter" phase where less than 3% of people use it.

I'm not being critical or looking to debate, but when I see the phrase:
This takes all the standard investment advice and throws it out...
I have such a strong flashback to the 1999/2000/Spring 2001 dot com bubble, that it's hard to avoid drawing a comparison.
Never, never ever throw out all the standard investment wisdom, or think we have entered a new, permanent Era of Enhanced Valuation....this is what comes after:



It has been well over a decade now, and the Nasdaq still has never fully recovered.

Note: I am not saying BTC is unable to go much higher.
These phrases set off loud and clear alarm bells: "takes all the standard investment advice and throws it out" or "these companies/this asset cannot use the same valuation models as in the past"* (translation circa 2000 == "stocks of companies with no profits really are worth huge prices")
*Edit: Obviously Bitcoin doesn't have an established "historical valuation model", and we are pioneers in an exciting adventure.

My main point is:
If Bitcoin reaches $20,000 each and the fundamentals are strong enough, then that will be the "correct" price. If the "bubble" is based mostly on speculation and panic buying, then it will crash really hard. Either way, there is no need to "take all the standard investment advice and throw it out"

[BitchicksHusband]

OK, in both the .com boom and in the subprime crisis, it was very easy to tell that the entire world had gone completely insane.  I had a guy with a .com company that got millions of dollars and was talking about the awesome desks and chairs he was buying instead of his code.  The code was an afterthought and they really had nothing more than a pretty good idea (temporary dollar-limited VISA cards with verification) that could be easily copied by VISA themselves (which is EXACTLY what happened).

In subprime, they were giving ARM mortgages left and right to people with 520 credit scores.  I remember the day that they were "excited" that they finally got 510 approved.  These people had never paid a bill in their entire lives!

If bitcoin did nothing for anyone and was still getting insane valuations then I would say it's a valid comparison.  But I think that the bitcoin network actually does something that nothing else in the world does well for free.  And it's not going down the tubes anytime soon.

[Kupsi]

What we are witnessing in the price is simply growing S-curve adoption.

Yes! Everyone should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

[Bit_Happy]

OK, in both the .com boom and in the subprime crisis, it was very easy to tell that the entire world had gone completely insane.  I had a guy with a .com company that got millions of dollars and was talking about the awesome desks and chairs he was buying instead of his code.  The code was an afterthought and they really had nothing more than a pretty good idea (temporary dollar-limited VISA cards with verification) that could be easily copied by VISA themselves (which is EXACTLY what happened).

In subprime, they were giving ARM mortgages left and right to people with 520 credit scores.  I remember the day that they were "excited" that they finally got 510 approved.  These people had never paid a bill in their entire lives!

If bitcoin did nothing for anyone and was still getting insane valuations then I would say it's a valid comparison.  But I think that the bitcoin network actually does something that nothing else in the world does well for free.  And it's not going down the tubes anytime soon.

Yes, Bitcoin clearly has more real value than many of the dot com failures.

Perhaps the BTC market has two very different long-term trend-lines.
1) The "real price" (right now currently somewhere in the $450 to $800 range)
2) The "crazy bubble price" $1,200+ and "soon" headed to over $3,400 

[freedomno1]

No this year will not be an exception for the price
That said we will likely see a peak rally around August-October
The price it stabilizes at around December will likely still be higher than last year though

The question of if we are in the S curve and how far in though is a fascinating question since we technically are starting to move mainstream
But is it entering into it now based on total users or potential growth.