Market predictions for BTC prices

[iNs4nePT]

What are your predictions for BTC prices over the next months, and why?

I can imagine that prices could keep falling for weeks, specially if the new hardware (7800 series) is as decent as it seems to be.
After a few months maybe, if enough interest/business/media is atracted, and with the 25BTC reward deadline on the horizon, things can boom again...


Thoughts?

[Hubertus63]

I can imagine that prices could keep falling for weeks, specially if the new hardware (7800 series) is as decent as it seems to be.
After a few months maybe, if enough interest/business/media is atracted, and with the 25BTC reward deadline on the horizon, things can boom again...

It's always interesting to review old predictions after a while. Seems like you were right about the boom.

Anyway, on your topic of market predictions for BTC this is to advise that we have set up a question on Prediki (short for: prediction market+wiki) about the end of year 2103 price of Bitcoin. https://www.prediki.com/questions/What-will-the-exchange-rate-of-US-per-Bitcoin-be-at-the-end-of-2013/

The format lends itself well to stating one's reasons in the wiki, while the market and the final settlement ultimately shows who's been right or wrong. You can buy and sell answer options as on any prediction market, but it works for free, on a completely virtual currency (Credits) to avoid issues with gambling. Questions can be sponsored with real money however, winnings are distributed to participants pro rata to trading profits. This means, the better or earlier your predictions the larger your share. Ironically, if sb wanted to sponsor the question in BTC that would make BTC a real money, in our terminology ...

BTW: The site is brand-new but once it finds 20+ or so participants for the question we'd expect to get pretty good predictions and a good analysis-wiki.

[rjez86]

Yea it is funny to see these old predictions. Did anyone predict a boom that big?

[YACmeister]

These USB miners at 300khash should do some damage. Mass adaption of ASICS and usb miners will make prices bubble up

[jaywaka2713]

These USB miners at 300khash should do some damage. Mass adaption of ASICS and usb miners will make prices bubble up

Not at the $200 price tag I heard they'll run for.

[Hubertus63]

Yea it is funny to see these old predictions. Did anyone predict a boom that big?

Well, per definition there's always half who predict its rising and half who not. And since that's Gaussian, I am certain there was someone.

Prediki has been built to capture such opinions through the prediction market. If it catches on, we can learn from the voice of those who were right, in the future.

[LeftOfCenter]

These USB miners at 300khash should do some damage. Mass adaption of ASICS and usb miners will make prices bubble up

I could be wrong, but I don't think miner's will affect price. The way the difficulty is set up we'll see a new block mined every 10 minutes no matter what. If you instantly doubled the mining power the difficulty would just go up as well. New ASICs and more competitve miners only change who gets the btc, not how much btc are generated.

As far as the price actually goes, who knows, speculating is a dangerous game.

[LeftOfCenter]

Oh if you want to speculate the price of btc for fun with no risk, there is a game set up at https://milliondollarportfoliochallenge.com/ where you can speculate all you want with imaginary money.