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Author Topic: If difficulty rises at current pace...  (Read 3149 times)
bullox
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April 21, 2011, 02:56:45 AM
 #1

Mining vs cost of electricity of the total system will become unprofitable for me in 4 difficulty changes for one of my rigs, and in 6-7 difficulty changes for the other.  This is assuming $1.25 per 1 BTC also.  Harsh, guess I won't be buying that new video card after all   Sad

This thread is just a heads up to everyone to keep track of your power consumption vs BTC generation.   Always stay on the profit end of that equation!  Sometimes shutting off the minings the right thing to do, sadly...
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[Tycho]
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April 21, 2011, 03:00:46 AM
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Sometimes shutting off the minings the right thing to do, sadly...
This is not always true even if mining profit is negative.
If someone pays $0.8 in energy to generate 1 BTC then he should have shut down his miners some weeks ago. But if he didn't, he can sell those bitcoins for $1.2 now :)
(just an example)

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TurdHurdur
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April 21, 2011, 03:01:52 AM
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You need to ask yourself if you have the stomach for speculation.
Veldy
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April 21, 2011, 03:02:05 AM
 #4

Mining vs cost of electricity of the total system will become unprofitable for me in 4 difficulty changes for one of my rigs, and in 6-7 difficulty changes for the other.  This is assuming $1.25 per 1 BTC also.  Harsh, guess I won't be buying that new video card after all   Sad

This thread is just a heads up to everyone to keep track of your power consumption vs BTC generation.   Always stay on the profit end of that equation!  Sometimes shutting off the minings the right thing to do, sadly...

Time to install a windmill Smiley

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bullox
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April 21, 2011, 03:08:01 AM
 #5

You need to ask yourself if you have the stomach for speculation.
While I enjoy some healthy speculation, I have my own reservations about midrange forecasts of BTC, which is the length of time I will anticipate being involved  Smiley  By all means though, those with long term goals will (probably) profit.

I'm just saying that even the current spike of BTC price needs to continue aggressively in order to keep up with electricity costs from the equally aggressive difficulty increases.  If it doesn't....  well....
Veldy
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April 21, 2011, 03:13:11 AM
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You need to ask yourself if you have the stomach for speculation.
While I enjoy some healthy speculation, I have my own reservations about midrange forecasts of BTC, which is the length of time I will anticipate being involved  Smiley  By all means though, those with long term goals will (probably) profit.

I'm just saying that even the current spike of BTC price needs to continue aggressively in order to keep up with electricity costs from the equally aggressive difficulty increases.  If it doesn't....  well....

If it doesn't, people will start dropping off and I suspect difficulty may drop [or at least quit rising so quickly].

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MrGaSp
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April 21, 2011, 03:13:57 AM
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Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P

proudhon
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April 21, 2011, 03:40:33 AM
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Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P

Has the difficulty ever gone down?
MrGaSp
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April 21, 2011, 03:42:07 AM
 #9

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P

Has the difficulty ever gone down?

Once.

Also, it will probably get more costly once summer time hits...A/C will be needed for my comps... =/

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April 21, 2011, 03:45:50 AM
 #10

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P

Has the difficulty ever gone down?

Once.

Also, it will probably get more costly once summer time hits...A/C will be needed for my comps... =/

Yeah, I'm a little worried about that too, but then again, we'd be running the A/C anyway... Just might have to tolerate slightly higher household temps by trying to run the A/C the same way we would if we weren't running a 24/7 mining rig.  Although, since last summer, and recently, we've made some changes in the household that should help to reduce the overall temperature and power usage.  For example, we changed all our light bulbs from the old 60W ones to the new 13W ones, and we've gotten better at turning off appliances that aren't being used (TVs, extra computers, etc.).  I'm hoping things will balance out.
allinvain
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April 21, 2011, 03:51:51 AM
 #11

So what do you (OP) pay for electricity per KwH?

Also does anyone know of a web based calculator that will help me determine at what point mining is no longer profitable?

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April 21, 2011, 03:52:00 AM
 #12

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P
Has the difficulty ever gone down?
Twice.

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chungenhung
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April 21, 2011, 03:57:35 AM
 #13

if the number of people mining continues to increase, causing it harder to generate BTC, then no doubt the price of BTC will go up.
If the price does not go up in proportion to electric cost to generate using the most efficient hardware, then it is because there is a significant number of people running on "free" electricity.

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bullox
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April 21, 2011, 04:08:55 AM
 #14

So what do you (OP) pay for electricity per KwH?

Also does anyone know of a web based calculator that will help me determine at what point mining is no longer profitable?
I pay USD$.09 per kWh.  Which is apparently normal-to-high for the US.  But I factor in total power consumption of the dedicated rig (not just vid cards) and the cost of A/C so said PCs do not liquefy into a pool of thermite.  YMMV if you are in a more temperate area.
compro01
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April 21, 2011, 04:11:17 AM
 #15

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P
Has the difficulty ever gone down?
Twice.

clarifying

once in may, 2010 and again in march 2011, post-mystery miner.

you need to look closely to notice it.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png
gigabytecoin
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April 21, 2011, 07:03:06 AM
 #16

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P
Has the difficulty ever gone down?
Twice.

clarifying

once in may, 2010 and again in march 2011, post-mystery miner.

you need to look closely to notice it.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png

That it was. Looks like there were indeed two downdips. Although I would consider them more of a flatline... They didn't dip down very much that's for sure.
MrGaSp
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April 21, 2011, 07:48:25 AM
 #17

Well, then less people will mine, meaning the difficulty will go down again =P
Has the difficulty ever gone down?
Twice.

I only knew of one time, but you'd know better than me =P

allinvain
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April 21, 2011, 01:50:07 PM
 #18

So what do you (OP) pay for electricity per KwH?

Also does anyone know of a web based calculator that will help me determine at what point mining is no longer profitable?
I pay USD$.09 per kWh.  Which is apparently normal-to-high for the US.  But I factor in total power consumption of the dedicated rig (not just vid cards) and the cost of A/C so said PCs do not liquefy into a pool of thermite.  YMMV if you are in a more temperate area.

That's pretty much what I pay too $0.09 Canadian dollars. As far as temps, it all depends. This year I have a feeling the summer is going to be short and cool(er) than last year. Cooling costs are nil as I'm gonna put the miners in the basement where normally it's cooler. I'll figure out some ventilation scheme somehow.

Man I hope I can make a bit of use out of a pair if 5870s I recently purchased before the difficulty makes it uneconomical to do so.

Where you located in the US? Southern part? Hot weather most of the year there?

barbarousrelic
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April 21, 2011, 02:10:00 PM
 #19

Sometimes shutting off the minings the right thing to do, sadly...
This is not always true even if mining profit is negative.
If someone pays $0.8 in energy to generate 1 BTC then he should have shut down his miners some weeks ago. But if he didn't, he can sell those bitcoins for $1.2 now Smiley
(just an example)

In the situation you refer to, if it costs more in energy than the bitcoins are worth, it would be better for the person to shut off the miners and buy the bitcoins with cash.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
allinvain
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April 21, 2011, 02:13:37 PM
 #20

Right but who here pays $0.80 per kilowatt-hour? I doubt anyone pays that much. I think for the majority of GPU miners the mining biz is still profitable.

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