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Author Topic: MtGox publishing their financials  (Read 3234 times)
Blitz­
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February 01, 2012, 10:29:02 AM
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https://mtgox.com/press_release_20120201.html

p. 11-14 relevant to us.

MtGox has ~1 million Bitcoins according to Mark, so now all we have to do is make guesses for the total USD side based on deposit/withdrawal and market volumes to estimate a possible over- or undervaluation.

Also keep in mind that technically, there exist 8.2 million BTC. Anyone who can provide how many of them didn’t move for a very long period?

--

My guess is 30 million USD total on MtGox. This is nothing in the financial world and it is likely more than most people would have imagined, therefore I am bullish. Bitcoin has been severely undervalued in the ride down from June and this will now be corrected.

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February 01, 2012, 12:19:35 PM
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I did some analysis on the top 100 bitcoin addresses a couple months back.  I can look up what my findings were and post later.  I'm on the bus right now.  Please PM me to remind me this weekend if I haven't responded by then.  (Work/life very busy right now)

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February 01, 2012, 01:21:49 PM
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My guess is 30 million USD total on MtGox. This is nothing in the financial world and it is likely more than most people would have imagined, therefore I am bullish. Bitcoin has been severely undervalued in the ride down from June and this will now be corrected.

I don't see how you arrive at $30 million.
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February 01, 2012, 01:30:25 PM
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My guess is 30 million USD total on MtGox.

I don't see how you arrive at $30 million.

He guessed.
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February 01, 2012, 02:11:43 PM
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A net deposit a bit above 1M USD in January is roughly the expected, given the price hike and hype revival in the first weeks of January. I'm not so certain whether this inflow will hold throughout February though, I could imagine a lot comes from people who were already into Bitcoin.

Blitzboom: I don't understand how you can do that 30M estimate. January was probably a bigger inflow month in recent times, still we had 1.8M of withdrawals, overall flow being distributed roughly 3:2. Most funds have either left Gox during the pessimist times last year, or should at least partially have been used to buy when the trend was pointing up again. Where should the 30M come from, especially, when are they supposed to have been deposited?
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February 01, 2012, 02:31:39 PM
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Look at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gVolzcv

Don’t you think there will likely be a multiple of the peak volume days sitting on MtGox?

Quote
Most funds have either left Gox during the pessimist times last year, or should at least partially have been used to buy when the trend was pointing up again

Hm, point taken.

Hopefully we will find out and see how incredibly far I’m probably off. Grin

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February 01, 2012, 02:41:52 PM
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Don’t you think there will likely be a multiple of the peak volume days sitting on MtGox?

That is a peak weekly volume of 5.5M USD in the chart you posted, which includes the Bitcoinica explosion. I would expect that quite some funds were traded back and forth in a matter of hours.

We can only guess at the actual amount of unique funds traded, but I would guess that some day-traders and Bitcoinica traders were causing volume in excess of their account size. Bitcoinica was at least once wiped and refilled completely, which probably amounts to well over 100k BTC chaotic volume in these few hours alone -- and that wasn't considered special at all, apart from the stupid price spikes caused in squeezes.
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February 01, 2012, 04:51:53 PM
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Just my 2 cents. Why Gox publish it? Maybe he wants to produce and place its shares on the stock market? Then there may be many investors. A new phenomenon and has a lot of "noise" in the press ... By the way, the press ... Who pays for it? Secret investor? Creator Gox - he's the creator of bitcoin too .... He's got most of the coins (for storage) ... He also bought those panic selling...
Yes, of course, if it happens -  Gox buy coins in itself, with the proceeds from the placement of the money ... Your thoughts?

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February 01, 2012, 05:54:19 PM
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I applaud them for this modest amount of transparency, but has anyone heard why MtGox decided to publish this data?  They picked their best month ever to voluntarily disclose, which makes me a little suspicious of their motivation.  Are they trying to drum up business?  Or perhaps they're trying to justify their business model to bankers to get better banking access?

Volume by week in currency shows it's their best month ever:
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February 01, 2012, 07:05:22 PM
 #10


usd revenue 337,450
btc revenue  52,400

5000000 yen per month in costs -> 65 675 U.S. dollars * 12 months-> 788100 usd costs?
 
looks to me like they are losing money...  which worries me

unless i am missing something...
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February 01, 2012, 07:28:19 PM
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usd revenue 337,450
btc revenue  52,400

5000000 yen per month in costs -> 65 675 U.S. dollars * 12 months-> 788100 usd costs?
 
looks to me like they are losing money...  which worries me

unless i am missing something...

5000000 yen current costs after hiring more staff. This time last year it was practically a one-man operation. They only started approaching lawyers in late May/June, and as a business only started to solidify after June. They're lucky they are still standing.
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February 01, 2012, 07:36:49 PM
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usd revenue 337,450
btc revenue  52,400

5000000 yen per month in costs -> 65 675 U.S. dollars * 12 months-> 788100 usd costs?
 
looks to me like they are losing money...  which worries me

unless i am missing something...

takes money to make money

they might be getting tax breaks for keeping the operating cost higher then their revenue.

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February 01, 2012, 07:47:55 PM
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usd revenue 337,450
btc revenue  52,400

5000000 yen per month in costs -> 65 675 U.S. dollars * 12 months-> 788100 usd costs?
 
looks to me like they are losing money...  which worries me

unless i am missing something...

I'd expect a lot of the cost is wages and bonuses paid, some of which may be tied to performance. The cost doesn't tell us much. Anyway, it seems they would be getting a lot more revenue now than they were a year ago, and are probably betting on that trend continuing.

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February 01, 2012, 08:00:24 PM
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Also keep in mind that technically, there exist 8.2 million BTC. Anyone who can provide how many of them didn’t move for a very long period?


Look at the stats at ecdsa.org, the one where you move your mouse across the screen to see where coins move as time passes by.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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February 01, 2012, 09:52:48 PM
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good news
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February 01, 2012, 11:44:47 PM
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I did some analysis on the top 100 bitcoin addresses a couple months back.  I can look up what my findings were and post later.  I'm on the bus right now.  Please PM me to remind me this weekend if I haven't responded by then.  (Work/life very busy right now)


I saw this, i'd be interested in a comparison from your findings and what gox published.

As for motives behind the transparency release? Well, I think their attitude towards loyalty in their customer base and transparency is partly due to Japanese culture. I heard that if you drop a wallet in Japan, nobody will pick it up if  they see it... im not sure if that was BS, but if not, then its very trusting of them.

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February 02, 2012, 03:04:55 AM
 #17

but I would guess that some day-traders and Bitcoinica traders were causing volume in excess of their account size.

On the day of the bitcoinica cleansing, my volume was at least 6x my account balance.
My 30-day volume is currently 60x what I keep on Gox.  Wink

I would imagine that the vast majority of volume is just switching hands, and not fresh $.

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February 02, 2012, 03:24:59 AM
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usd revenue 337,450
btc revenue  52,400

5000000 yen per month in costs -> 65 675 U.S. dollars * 12 months-> 788100 usd costs?
 
looks to me like they are losing money...  which worries me

unless i am missing something...

Ah... You caught the Yen figure too...

However,

 Costs would need to be quantified. Many Business make money but report losses for many reasons. Is there a charge-back for new services or equipment (ie investment) ?  Not to mention, many business operate at a loss in the first years to later reap rewards with market share. Although operating at a loss, especially for a business so new, is not indicative of future data, it does make one look closer at the data. I would much rather see, projected growth along with current financial status as an indicator. Then one can see if the projected growth is hit or missed.

 Remember this is basically a new company. Don't solely judge it off of 1 years worth of data.

Nice catch on the Yen tho.


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February 02, 2012, 03:45:44 AM
 #19

The date range given for the revenue figures - "Nov 10 thru Nov 11" don't seem right, as if I recall correctly, Tibanne didn't acquire MtGox until March 2011.

Maybe that just means two days of revenue: Nov 10, 2011 thru Nov 11, 2011 =)

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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February 02, 2012, 03:53:49 AM
 #20

I have a sneaky suspicion that my rant in the cryptoxchange suggestions thread might had something to do with this new transparency by mtgox given that they disclosed almost word for word what I asked cryptoxchange and also ICBIT's Fireball to disclose.

If this is indeed the case I'd feel really proud to have affected the Bitcoin community in such a way especially if this leads to more transparency by competitors to mtgox and also by other Bitcoin businesses!

p.s.: Isn't it funny how both cryptoxchange and ICBIT initially had objections to this level of transparency saying that a business just can't show this kind of information and all kinds of excuses..  Roll Eyes and then BOOM, here comes the king in the market and does just that. It made my day that's for sure!  Grin

EDIT: I just noticed this:
Guys,

In relation to Transparency - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61144.msg714386#msg714386

Mentioning Everything, MtGox has Provided this since as per your suggestions - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62149.0

Is that the exact information you would like? We are working on a real time solution to show the data, and you can see it live once we have it ready.

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