Where Do We Go From Here - Technical Thoughts on BTC Price

[Trade-Winds]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

Against a Rally Continuing
Volume not up enough....yet
Price fell away from this level before in mid April (1 on chart)

[Trade-Winds]

Looks like 'For A Rally Continuing' wins out.

technically looking like a nice momentum build. Volume is increasing, daily chart shows a controlled advance then consolidate then advance pattern rather than an uncontrolled burst upwards. This is a better price movement as it is more likely to keep the trend positive. With any advance you want it to consolidate / pullback into support for the momentum to be able to refuel and continue. Great support now around $500 or so which is the broken resistance area plus key moving averages (50 / 200 day) confirming the move and support. Not saying it won't pull back, but technical signs are $700 is in range in the very near future.

[Bit_Happy]

The short, medium and long-term trends are all up now!

Flip a coin and you will know which way is next?
We will stay above $450 (which means the next move could be in either direction) but could go "straight up" to $2,500 with several 'terrifying' corrections along the way.*
*No one knows for certain, which is part of why it's so exciting.  

[Trade-Winds]

By zooming the chart time-frame out to a weekly instead of daily you get a great visual sense of the period of super price exuberance from end of last year and the pullback into solid support and basing around $500 which is now turning into the foundations for another possible movement back towards all time highs. This is a great looking chart from a technical analyst point of view.

[Raystonn]

You're using linear scale.  To track similar increases based on percentage, please switch to a logarithmic chart.

[bitsmichel]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

Against a Rally Continuing
Volume not up enough....yet
Price fell away from this level before in mid April (1 on chart)

So far its going up, I see that right in my wallet. May as well go to $1000 now

[Trade-Winds]

Lets see if a continuation flag develops here. Looking for price range to lessen and consolidate but remain high in the recent trading pattern, volume low in the consolidation, but increases as price pulls back in the pattern leading to a breakout upwards out of the 'flag' shape above the $595 high. It will resolve either way (up or down) in a couple days.

Essentially if the pattern plays out what is happening is that those who missed out on the little rally are watching and waiting and then joining in as they see their chance to participate.

This flag pattern can also be used to calculate target move out of the pattern - Take the rally start (A) away from the rally top (B) divide it in half then add it to the lowest point in the flag pattern (currently C) = breakout prediction price D So 595-450 = 145 / 2 = 72.5 + 550 = 622.5.

Caveat emptor 

[TalkTalk]

Lets see if a continuation flag develops here. Looking for price range to lessen and consolidate but remain high in the recent trading pattern, volume low in the consolidation, but increases as price pulls back in the pattern leading to a breakout upwards out of the 'flag' shape above the $595 high. It will resolve either way (up or down) in a couple days.

Essentially if the pattern plays out what is happening is that those who missed out on the little rally are watching and waiting and then joining in as they see their chance to participate.

This flag pattern can also be used to calculate target move out of the pattern - Take the rally start (A) away from the rally top (B) divide it in half then add it to the lowest point in the flag pattern (currently C) = breakout prediction price D So 595-450 = 145 / 2 = 72.5 + 550 = 622.5.

Caveat emptor 

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTC29May14.PNG

Where is Trade-Winds? Your flag analysis just happened. Thanks for the charts

[Bit_Happy]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

[Gingermod]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Upper

[ibankbitcoins]

@tradewind, sent  you PM.

[Trade-Winds]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Been away a few days, nice to see the price action. I'll get into where next over the next couple days. Don't like the look of the daily chart candle that spiked up to $685. In isolation it can be a big rejection signal for immediate pull back, I'll post details bit later.

[zimmah]

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Been away a few days, nice to see the price action. I'll get into where next over the next couple days. Don't like the look of the daily chart candle that spiked up to $685. In isolation it can be a big rejection signal for immediate pull back, I'll post details bit later.

It was just a spike of not even 10 minutes or so flash crashing the market, market selling like 600 bitcoin or so in an instant. I am not sure why they marketsold, as I'm pretty sure they could have easily gotten at least $20 per bitcoin more if they had slightly more patience.

Either way the next time we reach $680 we will likely either break it or drop back to a more modest $660 or so

[Trade-Winds]

Yes Zimmah the $680 or so Top is definitely now in place (same point touched and failed from early March from when it then fell to the $340s). Looking at the short timeframe charts (by minutes) each time price gets up to that area it runs out of fuel pretty quick and falls back. Going back to my daily chart the flag pattern breakout was pretty much textbook (by the way great charting / pattern resource from Bulkowski's http://www.thepatternsite.com if you are interested). as now shown retrospectively at 1 on the chart.

The current price action is causing a bit of a messy top to become evident (2 on chart) with the $680 zone a bridge too far at the moment. However upward momentum from the last couple weeks remains nice and strong. So a bull/bear battle now at the higher end of the $600s. As long as it stays above the flag breakout ($600 zone) then bulls keep the upper hand, for the moment though i am leaning towards more sideways action keeping below the $680 or so top.

If and when it does break this current top I'd expect a quick $100 or so run to the high $700s in a matter of days. I would be buying the breakout for sure.

Will update again in a day or so.

[Trade-Winds]

I really like the message this longer term chart shows. Its almost like a map that is pointing the viewer towards what is going to happen next. The pattern and repetition is clear as is the ascending trend line support. So purely looking at the pattern of the rise shown and the size of each upward swing you can interpret the map to find where 'X' marks the spot 'could' be.

Once price broke above Breakout 1 it ended with a new all time high at Breakout 2 that rise = $16.41 to $259 = a 16X16.41 rise in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

Once price broke above Breakout 2 it ended with a new all time high at Breakout 3 that rise = $259 to $1,163 = 4X259 rise in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

So if the pattern replicates the same approximate conditions when price breaks above Breakout 3 it 'will rise to a new high at Breakout 4 = $1,163 to $2,326 = 1X1,163 in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Thus X marks the spot is a new high around $2,300 toward end July. I wouldn't bet the house, it's just my extrapolation of a pattern, caveat emptor.

[natewelt]

I can't tell whether the big boys are simply slowly getting rid of shares at this level or accumulating...

Any indications?

[mrbrt]

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

[mrbrt]

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

Here are the log charts I was referring to above:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.msg6234630#msg6234630

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.msg6235001#msg6235001

[smoothie]

UP we go

[Trade-Winds]

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

Here are the log charts I was referring to above:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.msg6234630#msg6234630

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.msg6235001#msg6235001

Hey mrbert, nice extrapolating on those charts thanks 

In fact my /4 explanation is badly written version of what you are saying (square root) as my 1X was basically saying double from Breakout3. Thanks for making it clearer to all.