Exponential trend: back to x4 annualy

[piramida]

This is an updated exponential trend topic; I will update it after every rally collapse is over to see what the current trend baseline is.

Starting in 2010 and until Jan 1, 2013, we had a perfect x4 exponential trend - meaning, baseline was multiplied by 4 every year. It was confirmed several times using MtGox data, not posting it here since it's history by now. There are previous threads on that topic.

After Jan 1st 2013, things went ballistic (second, steeper line), using BitStamp data as Gox is no more, and the current reversal confirms the new x10 yearly baseline increase. In case that this trend is not broken, minimum price of 1 bitcoin in May, 2015, would be $4000 (or more, this is the minimum).



In case it does not hold and we revert back to the old, "slow" exponential baseline, the price would be ~$600.

[Mythul]

This needs a CCMF post ! Great TA 

[maxll]

You forgot to append RSI (devergencies are all included).

[piramida]

You forgot to append RSI (devergencies are all included).

RSI is good and all for determining when to exit and when to enter the market, and is a separate topic. Trend baseline is more useful in assessing how fast the bitcoin adoption is progressing. Right now, we see a very positive sign - new super fast x10 yearly adoption confirmation. Let's see if it goes on.

This needs a CCMF post ! Great TA 

CCMF? thanks I guess.

[piramida]

Updating, since the x10 exponential growth is, obviously, over, and we seem to be reverting to the x4 baseline growth. That line now offers support at $180, so if the previous ATH at $266 falls we could still go down 60-80$ to bounce off the long-term bottom line.

Just for some optimism, that bottom line crosses $300 at the end of January 2015, and $1200 at the end of January, 2016. For a historic reference, that bottom line was not once breached in bitcoin's history, even in flash crashes (mtGox hack does not count). But we did deviate from it quite a lot in 2013 to the upside...

[gizmoh]

^^ Realistic TA.

[segeln]

Updating, since the x10 exponential growth is, obviously, over, and we seem to be reverting to the x4 baseline growth. That line now offers support at $180, so if the previous ATH at $266 falls we could still go down 60-80$ to bounce off the long-term bottom line.

Just for some optimism, that bottom line crosses $300 at the end of January 2015, and $1200 at the end of January, 2016. For a historic reference, that bottom line was not once breached in bitcoin's history, even in flash crashes (mtGox hack does not count). But we did deviate from it quite a lot in 2013 to the upside...

I posted similar trendlines in the german coinforum.de
https://www.coinforum.de/topic/2706-bitcoin-chartanalyse/?p=46540
Mt.Gox does not count ,indeed,since it was a classic dead cat bounce.
The only weak point in the bottom trendline is the fact,the confirmations (about 5 ) occured in the early beginning of that bottom line.
Since then no testing of that line happened.
So we will see what happens if the line is tested again

But as long as the fundamentals are very good I am not scared.
And these fundamentals are still very good.

[rebel24]

You have to understand that even a 4x annual growth rate, at some point, will be unsustainable (think if/when the market cap hits $1T+).


I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

ie: If it was growing at 20x annual growth rate in year one, then in
year 2: 14x
year 3: 9.8x
year 4: 6.9x
year 5: 4.8x
year 6: 3.4x
etc

[piramida]

I posted similar trendlines in the german coinforum.de
https://www.coinforum.de/topic/2706-bitcoin-chartanalyse/?p=46540

Yep pretty similar Too bad that 2013 trend did not hold, it was a super-fast one which would lead to complete world domination by 2016. Now that we're back to reality, seems 2020 is more like it.

I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.

[zimmah]

I sure hope we can keep up with the x10 annually, at least for a couple of years.

4x isn't all that bad of course but still x10 is many times better.

Although the downtrend should really reverse by now, we are lower than we have ever been since december, and I don't think we can afford to go much lower. It would be a pretty bad sign if we drop to levels before the previous rally. I don't even think that ever happened before in bitcoin.

For it to happen this time could be a bad sign. I just hope that won't happen.

[rebel24]

I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.

actually its supported by the actual trendline of bitcoin-
Year 1 of bitcoin it went from nothing to about $0.001
1 year later went to about $0.30 (a 300x increase)
another year later, it was about $6 (a 20x increase)

so I would say yeah, its supported by more than my imagination.

[piramida]

I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.

actually its supported by the actual trendline of bitcoin-
Year 1 of bitcoin it went from nothing to about $0.001
1 year later went to about $0.30 (a 300x increase)
another year later, it was about $6 (a 20x increase)

so I would say yeah, its supported by more than my imagination.

No, it's not. Even if you take the very first trades OTC, you won't get any pattern. Try it and present the picture if something fits, I tried.

[rebel24]

I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.

actually its supported by the actual trendline of bitcoin-
Year 1 of bitcoin it went from nothing to about $0.001
1 year later went to about $0.30 (a 300x increase)
another year later, it was about $6 (a 20x increase)

so I would say yeah, its supported by more than my imagination.

No, it's not. Even if you take the very first trades OTC, you won't get any pattern. Try it and present the picture if something fits, I tried.

I dont understand why you have so much trouble understanding this, not only is it logical that the exponential growth pattern slows over time (and not to mention, its INEVITABLE as the price will clearly not continue booming once adoption and usage is saturated (indeed then there will be massive competition) -- again not only is it logical, it is how the bitcoin growth pattern has functioned- we will probably never see the massive 100 fold or more increases a year again (but thats what was going on at the beginning),


heres a very crude depiction of the kind of decaying growth I'm trying to explain:

[piramida]

I dont understand why you have so much trouble understanding this, not only is it logical that the exponential growth pattern slows over time (and not to mention, its INEVITABLE as the price will clearly not continue booming once adoption and usage is saturated (indeed then there will be massive competition) -- again not only is it logical, it is how the bitcoin growth pattern has functioned- we will probably never see the massive 100 fold or more increases a year again (but thats what was going on at the beginning),

I do understand it quite well and I am waiting for any signs of said slowdown, that's why this whole trend observe thread, what I am trying to tell you is that I don't see any signs, yet. On the log graph, bottom line - since 2011 - is raising pretty much in a straight line. I don't consider 2009 and 2010 because that is statistically insignificant noise, too low volume and too unprovable data. Your graph is fine but useless - you can fit anything with least squares, does not mean it is confirmed by any price swings.

What we might have seen in 2013, was a straight up leg on an S-curve; but to know for sure one more year of 4x growth should have to pass. If that is so, then slowdown might start in 2016-2017.

[Bagatell]

Your graph is fine but useless

Any graph that dismisses half the data is also pretty useless.