I have the feeling that the discussion on the claim on http://timothyblee.com/2011/04/19/bitcoins-collusion-problem/
is not going anywhere.
So here's something to underline arguments a little. Want to make a bet on it?
Please state clearly your failure scenario. My try on a formulation: splits of the block chain allow creating additional Bitcoins, causing a massive disturbance or inflation. This must happen before
Bitcoin fails, if it does fail. If you think other failures are more likely, I accept the idea of being paid in BTC, such that if I win the bet, I gain nothing if Bitcoin failed due to other reasons. But I'm also fine with canceling the bet in case a different failure scenario happens.
I'll start with an offer: I place 1000 EUR or equivalent in USD (1458)
, you place 670 EUR or equivalent in USD or BTC
at the rate valid when both sides agree on the bet. If Bitcoin gets massive problems due to collusion, as proposed in your post, within the next two years, you win all. Otherwise, I do. I'll leave the exact formulation for after you replied.
If you want to formulate the bet in a different or more precise manner, please go ahead. If you want to go into other failure scenarios of Bitcoin in more detail, I can adapt, but please be aware that I'm not certain about Bitcoin in general, I just claim that your proposed attack will not happen or not be successful.
If this bet happens, I will look for a well-trusted member of the community to hold my money during the bet. (Maybe someone who wants to join in, to raise the stakes?
) Fraud on my side will not be an issue that way.Edit: exact description of the bet
-- this might be necessary, now that people want to join in.My current proposal:
Failure scenario A: If a split of the block chain is followed by a crash ending Bitcoin altogether (to be defined), we loose.
Failure Scenario B: Consider the last 10 000 blocks of the longest block chain originating from the current genesis block (ludicrous chains throwing away the difficulty not counted). Are they, at any time during the bet, dominated by blocks creating significantly more money than currently planned? If so, I/we loose.
Timeout: If two years pass, I/we win.
Bet called off: If there is a crash (to be defined) of the Bitcoin market due to a reason not linked to block chain splits, the bet is called off. (Blitzboom seems to want to take a higher risk concerning this, but he wants a symmetric bet in return. I guess we'd negotiate this.)