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Author Topic: slow growth of forum user base  (Read 2712 times)
bitcool
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February 03, 2012, 05:29:02 PM
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The online user count is mostly around 200 nowadays.
I remember this time last year, it was around 100~120.
Not a very encouraging number.
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February 03, 2012, 05:30:48 PM
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100% annualized growth rate. OH NOES.
In 10 years 2^10 = ~2 million forum users.
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February 03, 2012, 06:06:28 PM
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Well, I'm happy it's growing, not shrinking.  And I think slow growth is a lot better than a huge explosion of Bitcoin users overnight.  Slow growth allows problems to be worked out and things to be improved as people identify the problems.  Astronomic growth would mean we can't keep up with problems that get discovered.  Like it or not, Bitcoin (the protocol) and Bitcoin (the satoshi client) are not ready for prime-time.

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February 03, 2012, 06:16:34 PM
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

Well you can get exact numbers here, (most online at a time) 230 in Feb/2011, 580 in Feb/2012.  But that's only two days into February so far, January was 739 (up from 303 in 2011). So February will likely be 800-900+. The other stats look pretty encouraging too. You can definitely see the trend following the exchange rate as well, bottoming in Nov/Dec with a steady increase since.

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February 03, 2012, 08:11:27 PM
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bitcoin is a disruptive technology, it's growth rate should resemble something like "singularity"  Wink
Seriously, by the year end half of the 21m coins will have been issued, there will be stronger headwind for future growth, 100% YOY growth won't cut it.
 
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February 03, 2012, 08:13:52 PM
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bitcoin is a disruptive technology, it's growth rate should resemble something like "singularity"  Wink
Seriously, by the year end half of the 21m coins will have been issued, there will be stronger headwind for future growth, 100% YOY growth won't cut it.

That is your unsupported opinion.  Personally I think anything higher than 100% YOY growth is improbable given the early stage of Bitcoin's existence. 
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February 03, 2012, 08:35:58 PM
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bitcoin is a disruptive technology, it's growth rate should resemble something like "singularity"  Wink
Seriously, by the year end half of the 21m coins will have been issued, there will be stronger headwind for future growth, 100% YOY growth won't cut it.

That is your unsupported opinion.  Personally I think anything higher than 100% YOY growth is improbable given the early stage of Bitcoin's existence. 

I'd define bitcoin's "early stage" as 2009 & 2010. Since catching fire last year and soared to $30, it entered  its growth stage.

I hope I am wrong, but I feel it's failing to pass the criteria defined "The Change Function". When you heard "iit's a hassle" in pro-bitcoin reports,  you know you have a problem.
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February 03, 2012, 08:38:23 PM
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Sorry but the $30 wasn't growth it is a bubble.  People going "look shiny" I will be a millionaire in 3 months.
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February 03, 2012, 09:14:59 PM
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I hope I am wrong, but I feel it's failing to pass the criteria defined "The Change Function". When you heard "iit's a hassle" in pro-bitcoin reports,  you know you have a problem.
I totally agree with that.
The reference client is notoriously lacking in features, making it newbie-hostile.
The third party clients... well... seem only to have like 16 users.

This is most unfortunate since in the users' minds the bitcoin client === Bitcoin.

DAT, you know as well as I do how often client issues posts crop up in Support and Newbies...
The fact that in most cases the users themselves have caused the issues (by failing to do backups, RTFM, and generally being severely technologically impaired) is overshadowed by a sad truth:
With every such post we are watching Bitcoin fail its userbase.

It is inconsequential that the userbase may be unwashed, uneducated, computer-illiterate morons - if we want Bitcoin to gain as much traction as possible, to become a truly significant currency, the client needs some serious reworking.

The reality check is excruciatingly painful when one is promised ease of use, safety, and security and loses their 1500$ BTC wallet.dat by performing a trivial system restore.
That surely is not the way to dethroning Pay-Pal, the roadsigns be damned.

What I see in these forums is too much preaching to the choir and back-slapping when some face-slapping seems better served - wake up and smell the coffee.
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February 03, 2012, 10:05:22 PM
 #10

That is my point Bitcoin is very very very very very very young.
The internet wasn't very user friendly 2 years after the first node went live either.

Bitcoin isn't ready for "the unwashed masses" so as it gains user friendliness, services, features, supporting companies, business ventures etc I don't find 100% user growth "bad".  If Bitcoin will have exponential growth we are prior to the bend in the curve IMHO. 

Alternatively Bitcoin will fail and some other system will take its place.  I measure Bitcoin growth in a DECADES long timeline.  People who think that Bitcoin will go from genesis block to mass adoption in 2-3 years are naive.

The first inter-node communication on Arpanet occurred on October 29, 1969 (and one node promptly crashed).  To put into context it would be like in 1971 someone complaining no facebook exists yet so internets = sucks.  I mean we had a whole two years and number of Arpanet nodes are only growing at 100% a year and the interface takes a computer scientist to figure it out. Smiley
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February 03, 2012, 10:07:45 PM
 #11

I hope I am wrong, but I feel it's failing to pass the criteria defined "The Change Function". When you heard "iit's a hassle" in pro-bitcoin reports,  you know you have a problem.
I totally agree with that.
The reference client is notoriously lacking in features, making it newbie-hostile.
The third party clients... well... seem only to have like 16 users.

This is most unfortunate since in the users' minds the bitcoin client === Bitcoin.

DAT, you know as well as I do how often client issues posts crop up in Support and Newbies...
The fact that in most cases the users themselves have caused the issues (by failing to do backups, RTFM, and generally being severely technologically impaired) is overshadowed by a sad truth:
With every such post we are watching Bitcoin fail its userbase.

It is inconsequential that the userbase may be unwashed, uneducated, computer-illiterate morons - if we want Bitcoin to gain as much traction as possible, to become a truly significant currency, the client needs some serious reworking.

The reality check is excruciatingly painful when one is promised ease of use, safety, and security and loses their 1500$ BTC wallet.dat by performing a trivial system restore.
That surely is not the way to dethroning Pay-Pal, the roadsigns be damned.

What I see in these forums is too much preaching to the choir and back-slapping when some face-slapping seems better served - wake up and smell the coffee.
I think for a currency, all users need are three things: receive, spend, and save. Make them easy, make them reliable, that's all.

I have a more positive view on the official client, I think it has gone a long way making improvements, but vendor side and mobile support are painfully lacking.

Currency conversion/exchange is another choke point. Paypal's killing of coinpal probably did the most damages in 2011, not being able to overcome the establishment's death grip may proven to be fatal.

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February 12, 2012, 03:07:17 PM
 #12

... but vendor side and mobile support are painfully lacking.

Did you check bitcoinspinner thin client for android ?
It's a gem, really.

If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
bitcool
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February 13, 2012, 12:23:52 AM
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... but vendor side and mobile support are painfully lacking.

Did you check bitcoinspinner thin client for android ?
It's a gem, really.
checking it out... thanks!
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February 13, 2012, 12:32:01 AM
 #14

bitcoin is a disruptive technology, it's growth rate should resemble something like "singularity"  Wink
Seriously, by the year end half of the 21m coins will have been issued, there will be stronger headwind for future growth, 100% YOY growth won't cut it.

That is your unsupported opinion.  Personally I think anything higher than 100% YOY growth is improbable given the early stage of Bitcoin's existence. 

It's not improbable at all. Faster growth happens every single time something goes from not existing to being large. The forum had way more than 100% YOY growth the year before.

But this is a just forum about Bitcoin. When Bitcoin is the only money used anywhere the vast majority of people will not talk or think about it.

It used to be that every bitcoiner used the bitcoin.org forum regularly I'd bet it's 10-20% now.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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