NEW ATH BY END OF JULY & $5000 PER BITCOIN BY END OF YEAR

[smoothie]

What we are smoking is last year we started at $13 and hit $1260.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns though.

I think I am expecting the $3000 USD ($300x10) range by the end of the year.

I agree and we will have a our crash down to the 1k support line

Pplz will be talking about cheap coinz at the 900-1000 USD mark

I always seem to underestimate the peaks.

Last time I thought we would only hit $1000...we went to $1200.

Prior to that I thought we would hit $150 and we went to $266.

[YipYip]

What we are smoking is last year we started at $13 and hit $1260.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns though.

I think I am expecting the $3000 USD ($300x10) range by the end of the year.

I agree and we will have a our crash down to the 1k support line

Pplz will be talking about cheap coinz at the 900-1000 USD mark

I always seem to underestimate the peaks.

Last time I thought we would only hit $1000...we went to $1200.

Prior to that I thought we would hit $150 and we went to $266.

I think its better to get a % amount of highs wrong than the lows IMHO

[painlord2k]

The current long time trend channel (started in Jan 2013) on a logarithmic scale is pointing to ~2150$ by end of 2014 (this is the low and it is obtained connecting the 2013 start low, the Silk Road bust minimum and the 19/05/2014 minimum.

The top was around 9x the lower trend line in April 2013 and November 2013.

The main difference between the bottoms is SR  (October 2013) was a market capitulation with high volume and sudden drop of the price, where the bottom of 2014 is more a saucer shaped bottom with a "slower" rise. (Slower for Bitcoin standard).

If you connect the Jan 9 2012, April 4 2013 and Jan 4 2014 (they are on a pretty line) they form a second top alignment around 6-7x of the base trend.

So, by end of 2014 we should be between 2K and 12K.

If we replicate the "60 days parabolics" we should hit 6k by July 20 2014, then correct at least to 3K if not 2K.
If we do, we could have enough time to be again in a uptrend by end of year.

But a lot depend on external factors like the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the market of gold and silver, bank failures and assorted Armageddons.
By end of July the exchange rate could peak at 8K if there are enough "good" news (depending on your point of view).

[smoothie]

There seems to be a consensus that we will hit at least $1000 by year end....at the absolute least.

That's still pretty good even though I won't sell at that price.

[wachtwoord]

Are you guys really that optimistic? I can see over $1000 again no problem, maybe 2 max but 5k is gonna take a while longer than half a year methinks 

If you cans till believe it, you're not aiming high enough

[mrbrt]

The current long time trend channel (started in Jan 2013) on a logarithmic scale is pointing to ~2150$ by end of 2014 (this is the low and it is obtained connecting the 2013 start low, the Silk Road bust minimum and the 19/05/2014 minimum.

The top was around 9x the lower trend line in April 2013 and November 2013.

The main difference between the bottoms is SR  (October 2013) was a market capitulation with high volume and sudden drop of the price, where the bottom of 2014 is more a saucer shaped bottom with a "slower" rise. (Slower for Bitcoin standard).

If you connect the Jan 9 2012, April 4 2013 and Jan 4 2014 (they are on a pretty line) they form a second top alignment around 6-7x of the base trend.

So, by end of 2014 we should be between 2K and 12K.

If we replicate the "60 days parabolics" we should hit 6k by July 20 2014, then correct at least to 3K if not 2K.
If we do, we could have enough time to be again in a uptrend by end of year.

But a lot depend on external factors like the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the market of gold and silver, bank failures and assorted Armageddons.
By end of July the exchange rate could peak at 8K if there are enough "good" news (depending on your point of view).

Good analysis.

As a reply to some of the earlier posts: I'm failing to see any analysis supporting the position of "well, I just can't see how we hit 4k, 5k etc. by the end of the year". It seems to stem from a general ignorance to bitcoin's historic price rises and a lazy and arbitrary sentiment of "wow that is a lot of money, I just can't imagine how 1 bitcoin could be worth that much ... not yet at least". You saw the same type of posts when bitcoin was $100 and $1,000+ was the "wow that is a lot of money... I can't imagine". And then $1,000+ happened much the same way $250 happened before it.

Bitcoin isn't going to ATH at $1,300, then hang around there for some months and then rise some more later this year or next. If it is going to ATH it is going to go 5xATH and then gradually fall to 2xpreviousATH over the course of several months, like it has done almost every time.

[Benjig]

There seems to be a consensus that we will hit at least $1000 by year end....at the absolute least.

That's still pretty good even though I won't sell at that price.

This is a very tricky descision, i wouldnt sell at that price too , probably i would sell at 4-5 k but just to rebuy when it crash to 3k and hold it until we reach 10k or 20k

[zoinky]

Classic smoothie thread.

[rafamadeira]

Somehow I think this bubble will be smaller than the others.

First bubble of 2013 we grew like x8.
Next bubble of 2013 we grew like x5
I predict the third bubble this time of 2014, we will grow like x3 to about $3500.

If we keep going x4, x3 , x2, x1,5 every 7 months I would be ok with that

but I think it will be more

[Elwar]

Classic smoothie thread.

Classic.

[Jcw188]

Are you guys really that optimistic? I can see over $1000 again no problem, maybe 2 max but 5k is gonna take a while longer than half a year methinks 

there has been a repeating pattern of going super-exponential, increasing 10-fold in about 60 days as panic-buying mania takes hold.

I'm wondering if we are about to get into a panic buying spree soon. It's slowly going  up but toucan feel the momentum picking up. $400 seems like a thing of the past that's for sure.

[YipYip]

Are you guys really that optimistic? I can see over $1000 again no problem, maybe 2 max but 5k is gonna take a while longer than half a year methinks 

there has been a repeating pattern of going super-exponential, increasing 10-fold in about 60 days as panic-buying mania takes hold.

I'm wondering if we are about to get into a panic buying spree soon. It's slowly going  up but toucan feel the momentum picking up. $400 seems like a thing of the past that's for sure.

750+ and it will hit Overdrive 

[Melbustus]

Ok... I've been a long-term bitcoin bull since I first really researched it in 2011. But you guys with your charts are grasping at air. Humans are natural pattern seekers, so this is all very tempting, but you're drawing conclusions based on a sample-set of 2 (and not to mention while also ignoring the 2011-2013 peak-to-peak of 20 months).

Look at it from a market-cap and global-influence perspective. Something going from a $100M to $1B market cap is going from a pittance to....still a pittance. Thus, there are many dynamics that can cause such a thing to happen. We're probably still in that realm going from $1B to $10B. Ten billion is still small in terms of global finance. There are plenty of *individuals* with higher net worth, and hundreds if not thousands of equities.

But the next order of magnitude up crosses a line. At $100B, there are only a few global equities with higher market-cap, zero individuals, and we're starting to get into the M2 money-supply range of somewhat important nations. Go toward $200-$500B and we're in serious global influence territory. Crossing that line out of "not globally important" is a big deal, and it can't happen easily.

That said, I think we *can* get to $30B-$50B market-cap on largely the same dynamics that have brought us this far. To get above, that, though, bitcoin will have to win some major battles.

[Mythul]

Congrats guys on getting rich ! Finally I've recovered my losses and I'm on the profit side ! Guess it was a hard lesson day trading back in december-january.

[smoothie]

Classic smoothie thread.

will be even more classic IF I am right.

[oda.krell]

Ok... I've been a long-term bitcoin bull since I first really researched it in 2011. But you guys with your charts are grasping at air. Humans are natural pattern seekers, so this is all very tempting, but you're drawing conclusions based on a sample-set of 2 (and not to mention while also ignoring the 2011-2013 peak-to-peak of 20 months).

Look at it from a market-cap and global-influence perspective. Something going from a $100M to $1B market cap is going from a pittance to....still a pittance. Thus, there are many dynamics that can cause such a thing to happen. We're probably still in that realm going from $1B to $10B. Ten billion is still small in terms of global finance. There are plenty of *individuals* with higher net worth, and hundreds if not thousands of equities.

But the next order of magnitude up crosses a line. At $100B, there are only a few global equities with higher market-cap, zero individuals, and we're starting to get into the M2 money-supply range of somewhat important nations. Go toward $200-$500B and we're in serious global influence territory. Crossing that line out of "not globally important" is a big deal, and it can't happen easily.

That said, I think we *can* get to $30B-$50B market-cap on largely the same dynamics that have brought us this far. To get above, that, though, bitcoin will have to win some major battles.

Great comment, melbustus. Thanks.

Similar to an argument I play out in my head occasionally. 100B (or somewhere around there) crosses into a new territory, imo. Marx' Umschlag von Quantität und Qualität comes to mind (the transition from a difference in quantity to a difference in quality.)

[sgbett]

Ok... I've been a long-term bitcoin bull since I first really researched it in 2011. But you guys with your charts are grasping at air. Humans are natural pattern seekers, so this is all very tempting, but you're drawing conclusions based on a sample-set of 2 (and not to mention while also ignoring the 2011-2013 peak-to-peak of 20 months).

Look at it from a market-cap and global-influence perspective. Something going from a $100M to $1B market cap is going from a pittance to....still a pittance. Thus, there are many dynamics that can cause such a thing to happen. We're probably still in that realm going from $1B to $10B. Ten billion is still small in terms of global finance. There are plenty of *individuals* with higher net worth, and hundreds if not thousands of equities.

But the next order of magnitude up crosses a line. At $100B, there are only a few global equities with higher market-cap, zero individuals, and we're starting to get into the M2 money-supply range of somewhat important nations. Go toward $200-$500B and we're in serious global influence territory. Crossing that line out of "not globally important" is a big deal, and it can't happen easily.

That said, I think we *can* get to $30B-$50B market-cap on largely the same dynamics that have brought us this far. To get above, that, though, bitcoin will have to win some major battles.

Great comment, melbustus. Thanks.

Similar to an argument I play out in my head occasionally. 100B (or somewhere around there) crosses into a new territory, imo. Marx' Umschlag von Quantität und Qualität comes to mind (the transition from a difference in quantity to a difference in quality.)

Just to play devil's advocate, I want to say that perhaps market cap might not be the one true indicator of when we move from pittance to globally important.

I serve this with a large helping of salt, but roughly speaking it looks like a n^x increase in price only requires xn in fiat volume. That is to say that if the market cap was to increase exponentially, the fiat needed to support that price only appears to increase geometrically.

This is a loose observation just glancing quickly at price /volume in fiat and necessarily means looking back at gox data, so theres potentially interference, and more than likely a bit of wishful thinking

What it might mean (here's that wishful thinking) is that the move to $10k could still happen without a globally significant amount of fiat backing it, and that it might be a move to $100k that would necessitate the transition to quality.

Of course bear in mind that I'm the frothy mouthed kind of bitcoin nutter that thinks the willy report is long term bullish

[btc-owl]

If we are lucky, we'll reach the $1000 mark by the end of the year. $5000 is just nonsense.

[Dragonkiller]

If we are lucky, we'll reach the $1000 mark by the end of the year. $5000 is just nonsense.

thanks for sharing your wisdom, newbie.

[Cluster2k]

Only way we'll be at $5k by the end of the year is if someone unleashes another Markus and Willy.