Willy Report disucssion

[CoolStoryBro]

For those who missed it: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
I really wonder why there is no discussion ongoing.

I think these news just HUGE. It totally slaps all that exponential growth theories down if true.
Apparently both 2 latest rallies were mainly caused by the Gox bot?

[YipYip]

For those who missed it: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
I really wonder why there is no discussion ongoing.

I think these news just HUGE. It totally slaps all that exponential growth theories down if true.
Apparently both 2 latest rallies were mainly caused by the Gox bot?

tldr;

So the whole bitcoin ecosystem is driven & manipulated from 1 bot ....all the rest is just a mirage

STAY OFF CRACK !!

[CoolStoryBro]

Don't exaggerate. I'm not saying this.

But reports shows that these 2 rallies was hugely driven by Willy, and would we have other rallies, it might be way slower (and so all that nice exponential chart models are so flawed).

[jl2012]

Don't exaggerate. I'm not saying this.

But reports shows that these 2 rallies was hugely driven by Willy, and would we have other rallies, it might be way slower (and so all that nice exponential chart models are so flawed).

MtGox died 3 months ago. If Willy was the only reason for the run from 10 to 1000, we should now be closer to 10. However, we are much closer to 1000 now.

And don't forget, during the latest rally, most smart people escaped MtGox and were trading on other markets. BitPay stopped using MtGox since June. Volume in MtGox had moved to Bitstamp and Chinese markets. These other markets are real markets where people could freely deposit and withdraw both bitcoin and fiat. Especially in Chinese markets, fiat withdraw and deposit was completely friction-less before the PBoC ban. High price at these markets could not be sustained without real liquidity.

The Willy report is an excellent forensic analysis. However, I don't agree with its conclusion that Willy was the single most important factor in the previous rallies. Undoubtedly Willy had "contribution", but it was only one of the many reasons.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. I do wonder how the lack of artificial buying pressure will affect the future market (and indeed, as jl2012 pointed out, how much of an actual effect it had to begin with, especially considering Bitcoin is seemingly driven by an exchange ecosystem and not Gox alone).

While the author of the article claims that the exponential growth trend is now void, I wonder if perhaps Willy activity set enough of a precedent/historic pattern of growth to be resumed by more natural natural market forces. Or, as the author implies, we will be seeing less dramatic bubble rises and more stability from now on.

[davidgdg]

For those who missed it: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
I really wonder why there is no discussion ongoing.

I think these news just HUGE. It totally slaps all that exponential growth theories down if true.
Apparently both 2 latest rallies were mainly caused by the Gox bot?

Fraudulent trading at Gox during November = 9,000 Btc per day
Global exchange volume during November = 300,000 Btc per day
The ultimate case of the tail wagging the dog  

[BitcoinBernd1]

Did you live under a rock?
>90% of the 300k volume happened with 0 fee trading bots. Gox bot was only buy orders too. That's a huge part of the total volume.
The bubble almost certainly wouldn't have happened to these extents without willy. Don't fool yourself.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Did you live under a rock?
>90% of the 300k volume happened with 0 fee trading bots. Gox bot was only buy orders too. That's a huge part of the total volume.
The bubble almost certainly wouldn't have happened to these extents without willy. Don't fool yourself.

What about the bubbles before that had almost the same x increase? Willy too I suppose...
The author fails to provide real evidence for any willy involvement in the April bubble, yet we had the same kinda bubble and increase 4 times now (I wanna remind you that bitcoin's market cap is still really small).

It's funny because you permabears were basically saying that we were not gonna have another big bull run because the december bubble was easily dismissed as the chinese buying like crazy with their "trillion shadow currency speculation", and because now they have deposit restrictions bitcoin will not gonna go anywhere. "omg no! no more fiat from the chinese, we are doomed"!!!.

But now you are saying that the reason for the bubble was not the new fiat in but some BOT in ONE joke of an exchange that was hacked numerous times.

i mean lol

[YogoH]

Mtgox crashing was major reason for april 2013 266 bubble burst

[fonzie]

[spazzdla]

I would argue the bots simply were the lighter to light the fuel.  Perhaps it would of taken longer but we might not of seen any massive dips if the bots kept out.

[saddambitcoin]

Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.

In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.

[spazzdla]

Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.

In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.

I am not done buying cheap.. more FUD plz.

[akujin]

Willy bot is down.. Needs some aphrodisiac to have a big erection 

[TheJuice]

I actually think this is how mtgox converted fiat fee's into BTC.

I don't have the energy to calculate/look up everything; but gox received a small % of all deposits and trades. I imagine gox probably felt safest keeping this money in BTCs. 600k BTC is probably about right in terms of total profit from the history of gox. So yes, maybe gox was buying BTC from it's fees and maybe it helped the price. But I don't think the willy report necessarily means market manipulation.

[MatTheCat]

MtGox died 3 months ago. If Willy was the only reason for the run from 10 to 1000, we should now be closer to 10. However, we are much closer to 1000 now.

And don't forget, during the latest rally, most smart people escaped MtGox and were trading on other markets. BitPay stopped using MtGox since June. Volume in MtGox had moved to Bitstamp and Chinese markets. These other markets are real markets where people could freely deposit and withdraw both bitcoin and fiat. Especially in Chinese markets, fiat withdraw and deposit was completely friction-less before the PBoC ban. High price at these markets could not be sustained without real liquidity.

The Willy report is an excellent forensic analysis. However, I don't agree with its conclusion that Willy was the single most important factor in the previous rallies. Undoubtedly Willy had "contribution", but it was only one of the many reasons.

In what might have been Willy's last dance, there was a 10K BTC whale who came to Bitstamp and erected a 10K Ask wall, sometime back in Feb 2014, just before the crash to $400 and Gox's closure. The 10K wall understandable freaked a few traders out and a sell of began on Stamp. Traders and bots on other exchanges soon followed suit, as did Gox plummet to around $100, which in turn triggered other exchange bots to correlate their trading with Gox. The 10K BTC whale, then moved his 10K wall down from around $600, to $580. Bitstamp was trading around $560 at this point. But then Gox started rallying. All the other exchanges started rallying with it. Even though Gox was known to be only trading 'Goxcoin' at this point, Trading Bots operating on other exchanges were still clearly reacting to price action on Gox. Gox climbed from $100 right up to $270, as all the other exchanges shot back up above $600, all except Stamp which was stuck at $580, because of the 10K wall. However, because all the other exchanges were trading some $20-$30 higher than Stamp, the bots operating on Stamp kept buying into the 10K Wall.

The 10K whale sold some 6.5K BTC worth of Bitcoin (around 3.75 million USD) at exactly $580, the remaining 3.5K BTC, is market sold into the wall smashing the price on Stamp down to $510, before it quickly recovered on very low volume to around $550.

This is a glittering example of how automated or robot controlled the Bitcoin market is, and of how the by then obviously vacuous Gox trading bots were used to push market down, and then bring market right back up so that almost 4 million USD were spent on $580 Bitcoins, a price that Bitcoin has struggled to get up to and stay above ever since.

I wouldn't expect the whole market to suddenly implode the minute that Willy or any numerous other market ramping systems might be turned off. After all, their are hundreds and thousands of participants in this market, all of whom have bought and sold Bitcoins at prices which Willy helped to achieve, all of whom believed in the prices they bought and sold the coins at. If everyone believes that emperor is wearing clothes, then the emperor is wearing clothes. However, once that insatiable driver of the market is taken away, then there is obviously a very important component of demand removed from the market and the result of that can only be a dragging bear market until either a new driver of demand enters the market or the market reaches equilibrium level with organic market demand.

[exocytosis]

Good post, MatTheCat.

[sgbett]

Good post, MatTheCat.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain

People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...

[YipYip]

Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.

In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.

I am not done buying cheap.. more FUD plz.

I got my last tranche of fiat onto stamp & got filled 60 mins ago

I am now totally ""ALL IN "

dis-enagage FUD machine in 3..2....1

[YipYip]

Good post, MatTheCat.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain

People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...

Specilaists aka Market Makers aka Whales gotta get there coinz @ wholesales prices

How do they achieve this in a bullish market ...the MEDIA or recycled Willy Wonka Whore smokers reports

Yawn....