Bitcoin Price over next 24 hours (5/26/14 at 2:00pm EST)

[K128kevin2]

What do you guys think will happen to bitcoin price over the next 24 hours? I tend to think that the price is going to peek up above 600 and maybe fall back down to upper 500s a bit, but all of the technical analysis that I'm doing seems to indicate the opposite (going down to about $560).

A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.

I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.

But anyway what do you guys think will happen?

[blatchcorn]

At least $800 tomorrow

[K128kevin2]

Every 15 minutes, starting with 1:15pm EST 5/26/2014

584.934039
583.533070
583.772256
578.121019
577.551975
581.931580
580.219792
582.300155
580.297149
580.318418
578.048116
577.438041
581.326414
578.789699
575.017435
584.090099
577.520928
578.366127
579.968183
577.453950
574.357610
574.392019
576.191675
581.513364
577.493996
580.422882
573.143345
572.120392
575.525865
577.357011
581.058029
579.923112
576.345993
583.777877
584.075432
583.501703
576.135741
583.141639
572.431734
567.603757
559.353498
560.597985
560.090252
571.346354
573.899057
576.957203
568.059099
563.982264
563.102063
572.570777
576.073749
572.209507
566.131005
562.470266
560.983181
561.384717
560.755291
559.298314
557.275204
559.193547
566.546419
559.198723
559.130474
554.740171
556.946856
559.993350
558.789418
559.795851
564.549522
563.374774
564.667898
562.997321
562.907219
562.365710
562.450788
556.793951
564.418757
566.204559
563.389803
563.569533
562.750287
562.507670
563.469207
565.365554
564.466728
557.224202
560.709288
561.048311
552.189777
565.469679
555.658728
560.150252
560.773893
559.178174
558.073361
562.323059

[blatchcorn]

So you are selling and shorting then?

[K128kevin2]

So you are selling and shorting then?

Nah - as I said in OP, I don't believe these predictions. I think the price is going to rise, but I think it is interesting that multiple predictive models all agree that prices will fall. If the price does go down I might be more inclined to believe it next time though. And either way, I'm sure the price will go up again after that. We seem to be heading towards a more upward trend now.

[K128kevin2]

I just ran a version with more hidden layer nodes, which gives a lower error generally (~0.59% in this case) and it gave this result on the same data (starting at 1:15pm)
589.819535
579.711487
589.613565
585.713422
578.614500
580.644588
572.432824
589.004971
588.310471
584.230660
585.234313
577.191520
579.307930
587.288554
581.395909
577.695125
592.015850
586.830067
579.070512
578.192447
589.074750
580.715012
598.321619
584.103803
588.453544
590.669152
587.852766
593.233688
584.677468
596.884842
585.672070
595.363820
591.943741
598.096504
588.756039
593.269766
592.003758
597.162816
582.224598
580.220895
571.559628
562.926511
568.668016
579.785690
580.312969
585.740253
583.732925
571.284043
569.331248
573.835021
576.859852
581.665487
574.186256
569.391525
570.677710
554.477913
567.458716
577.503159
570.527866
568.687930
574.444163
576.073021
564.087631
569.905107
571.245613
563.756749
571.286153
581.832081
569.790310
578.292788
569.036707
568.264547
576.989348
582.850864
581.658816
583.559061
576.628701
569.844810
578.370206
580.579593
578.638999
574.568884
574.849460
573.260362
577.605372
573.979639
576.354487
571.745728
570.541206
575.621216
574.818973
575.861748
574.712310
568.257769
571.444051
579.071543

[MatTheCat]

What do you guys think will happen to bitcoin price over the next 24 hours? I tend to think that the price is going to peek up above 600 and maybe fall back down to upper 500s a bit, but all of the technical analysis that I'm doing seems to indicate the opposite (going down to about $560).

A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.

I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.

But anyway what do you guys think will happen?

I think a correction is due. The skywards reaching scaffolding is built as high up now as it is it going to be in the coming near term time period. There has been lots of leverage used during this run up with and damn expensive leverage at that. Lots of Bitfinex traders (market leader in terms of USD volume by now) are going to close their leveraged long positions and the only way they can do that is of course by selling Bitcoin back into the market. However, I still think that their is too much positivity around at the moment for this the correction to prove itself to be too brutal, I reckon $530 - $540 would be a good place to start seeing how things look.

I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.

[damnek]

I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.

This is exactly why this rally might go on for a bit longer; people are still in disbelief that we're actually going up again.

[MatTheCat]

This is exactly why this rally might go on for a bit longer; people are still in disbelief that we're actually going up again.

Which is why nobody/not many will panic sell. Which is why the correction shouldn't prove to be a particularly brutal one. But for Bitcoin to keep going up, people have to keep pouring money into it. Nobody wants to be amongst the last buyers of a leg up which may explain why buying pressure is drying up. For Bitcoin to take another good leg up, it needs to correct. Fresh capital needs to be encouraged to enter the market.

[RockHound]

Every 15 minutes, starting with 1:15pm EST 5/26/2014

584.934039
583.533070
583.772256
578.121019
577.551975
581.931580
580.219792
582.300155
580.297149
580.318418
578.048116
577.438041
581.326414
578.789699
575.017435
584.090099
577.520928
578.366127
579.968183
577.453950
574.357610
574.392019
576.191675
581.513364
577.493996
580.422882
573.143345
572.120392
575.525865
577.357011
581.058029
579.923112
576.345993
583.777877
584.075432
583.501703
576.135741
583.141639
572.431734
567.603757
559.353498
560.597985
560.090252
571.346354
573.899057
576.957203
568.059099
563.982264
563.102063
572.570777
576.073749
572.209507
566.131005
562.470266
560.983181
561.384717
560.755291
559.298314
557.275204
559.193547
566.546419
559.198723
559.130474
554.740171
556.946856
559.993350
558.789418
559.795851
564.549522
563.374774
564.667898
562.997321
562.907219
562.365710
562.450788
556.793951
564.418757
566.204559
563.389803
563.569533
562.750287
562.507670
563.469207
565.365554
564.466728
557.224202
560.709288
561.048311
552.189777
565.469679
555.658728
560.150252
560.773893
559.178174
558.073361
562.323059

Nice simple question - Good thread!  I wouldn't mind seeing a price-correction too, hope it happens.

However, don't think it will and we will be heading $615-$620 range

[K128kevin2]

I think a correction is due. The skywards reaching scaffolding is built as high up now as it is it going to be in the coming near term time period. There has been lots of leverage used during this run up with and damn expensive leverage at that. Lots of Bitfinex traders (market leader in terms of USD volume by now) are going to close their leveraged long positions and the only way they can do that is of course by selling Bitcoin back into the market. However, I still think that their is too much positivity around at the moment for this the correction to prove itself to be too brutal, I reckon $530 - $540 would be a good place to start seeing how things look.

I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.

I'm starting to think you might be right, and my neural network's prediction might be right (ish) as well... I thought the price would have gone up by more by now. I'm still not confident enough to actually sell, but it will be very interesting to see if your prediction comes true.

Nice simple question - Good thread!  I wouldn't mind seeing a price-correction too, hope it happens.

However, don't think it will and we will be heading $615-$620 range

I'm glad you like the thread And yeah I would have agreed with this several hours ago, but the fact that the price hasn't continued rising suggests to me that it might dip down a bit after all, though I think it will rise again after that, over $600.

[K128kevin2]

Wow I'm very surprised, the neural network was shockingly accurate! Maybe next time I'll be more inclined to believe it xD The one on the website shows the price staying the same for most of today and then rising back up to upper $500s in about 20-24 hours ish. We'll see what happens!

[Raystonn]

http://www.btcpredictions.com/Historic.php isn't looking very good right now.  The predictions look almost like an exact opposite mirror image of what really happened today.