94% correction? [46% so far]

[Technomage]

Also, if Technomage says there is "no reason to panic or sell a single BTC", then IMO it’s time to shit your pants.

I'm a long term investor, not a trader. I only trade when I see a big enough reason to warrant that approach. I wouldn't recommend traders to follow my advice, that is a whole different ball game.

Right now the situation to me looks like business as usual. These threads are pointless.

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[N12]

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

Also, I have given reasoning in my posts #2 and 3 here. If you think my thread is pointless, then perhaps speculation is pointless.

[proudhon]

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

What's funny is that in the days after things began to unravel back in June I was adamant that I wasn't going to sell my bitcoins, because things were going to turn around.  After listening to Nagle go on and on for a month or two I finally wised up and got out and I'm in a much better BTC and USD position as a result.  I'm not dogmatic anymore.  I hope bitcoin succeeds, I really do.  But I'm no longer willing to sit around passively and I'm willing to miss the astronomical adoption and price increase that so many think is on the horizon for a higher measure of security with what I've already accumulated USD wise.  When I can spend BTCs easily and securely on the things I want and need without it costing more than using USD, then I'll stay in BTC.  Right now, as I said, it's all USD for me and I only swap in and out to increase USD.

[Technomage]

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

I would sell immediately if I saw a possibility of this because it would allow me to increase my BTC position significantly. However with the current level of Bitcoin usage that would be way off any correlation thus far and the market cap would be way too small to make any sense. I give this prediction less than 0,1% possibility, it can only happen if there is a fundamental decline for Bitcoin in general, and right now there are no signs of that.

I'm worried about some things related to Bitcoin but the sustainability of the price around $5 is definitely not one of them. It will be if these other things I'm worried about become more serious issues than they are now, but that is another day and I'll reconsider things then.

[Technomage]

My only worry is the effect these threads have on sheep. The price movements right now are of no concern. My one and only reason to post here right now is to give the sheep another point of view. If the price is destined to fall it will fall, but less panicking will lead to a more stable Bitcoin price which is a good thing in my book.

[N12]

I had a similar "epiphany" when I lost a few hundred BTC trading and made them back plus a few hundred more, proudhon. I can never gain any USD if I’m not willing to lose them, but the very same is true for Bitcoins!

What a long time it has taken me to understand something as simple as that.

Technomage, what kind of "fundamental decline" happened from June to November, then? And what has suddenly changed since the 2 dollar low in November?

[gewure]

My only worry is the effect these threads have on sheep. The price movements right now are of no concern. My one and only reason to post here right now is to give the sheep another point of view. If the price is destined to fall it will fall, but less panicking will lead to more stable Bitcoin which is a good thing in my book.

indeed somebody crossing the speculation forum for the first time will have a pretty bearish view on bitcoin caused by all the madness on both sides..

[naima53]

Mmmm ... I think I rarely wrong, and "gut feeling" tells me - if these trends are a few lines are not broken down (I think they will not be broken down) then it will launch another rocket is above and beyond   it does not seem to signal a trend downward ... it looks like the end of the correction ...

[Vandroiy]

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

I would sell immediately if I saw a possibility of this because it would allow me to increase my BTC position significantly. However with the current level of Bitcoin usage that would be way off any correlation thus far and the market cap would be way too small to make any sense. I give this prediction less than 0,1% possibility, it can only happen if there is a fundamental decline for Bitcoin in general, and right now there are no signs of that.

You are giving Bitcoin a >99.9% survival chance? Sorry, but even as an enthusiast, I'd call this delusional. Trading on this is not a good idea, and would probably cause catastrophic problems in risk management. I'd probably not sign a paper giving USD or EUR >98% survival chance in the next year. You're a factor 20 off from there, and those are well-established globally used currencies.

Remind yourself, if your statement is true, you would accept a 1:1000 asymmetric bet on this. Are you sure that would be a good idea?

Just a reminder: be careful when assuming something like 99.9% probability. That's a whole lot of room for improbable events.

[gewure]

Mmmm ... I think I rarely wrong, and "gut feeling" tells me - if these trends are a few lines are not broken down (I think they will not be broken down) then it will launch another rocket is above and beyond   it does not seem to signal a trend downward ... it looks like the end of the correction ...

i am not a trader experienced enougth to identify 'the end of a correction', but i also share your bullish position: the slow uptrend-line formed about 2-3 months ago will likely hold, i think.

[Technomage]

indeed somebody crossing the speculation forum for the first time will have a pretty bearish view on bitcoin caused by all the madness on both sides..

+1

Exactly. This is why most of these threads are made. People who hold mostly USD positions make these type of threads and they hope to increase their profits that way. The same sometimes applies for people holding BTC positions as well, but I definitely feel that people in this community trading BTC mainly for gaining more BTC genuinely care much more for Bitcoin than do the traders who trade for increasing USD only.

[gewure]

indeed somebody crossing the speculation forum for the first time will have a pretty bearish view on bitcoin caused by all the madness on both sides..

+1

Exactly. This is why most of these threads are made. People who hold mostly USD positions make these type of threads and they hope to increase their profits that way. The same sometimes applies for people holding BTC positions as well, but I definitely feel that people in this community trading BTC mainly for gaining more BTC genuinely care much more for Bitcoin than do the traders who trade for increasing USD only.

makes sense

[N12]

Exactly. This is why most of these threads are made. People who hold mostly USD positions make these type of threads and they hope to increase their profits that way.

Do you really think I believe I could manipulate the Bitcoin market via a forum thread? Don’t be ridiculous.

I want to discuss an absurd idea I had, and the feedback I’m getting from eternal bulls seems to support the bag holding that is possibly repeating from summer.

I have SHARED ARGUMENTS based on my analysis in my posting: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62696.msg732366#msg732366

You haven’t answered them but instead come up with your typical "blah blah fundamentals; no reason to sell 1 single Bitcoin because UP UP UP".

[Technomage]

You are giving Bitcoin a >99.9% survival chance? Sorry, but even as an enthusiast, I'd call this delusional. Trading on this is not a good idea, and would probably cause catastrophic problems in risk management. I'd probably not sign a paper giving USD or EUR >98% survival chance in the next year. You're a factor 20 off from there, and those are well-established globally used currencies.

Remind yourself, if your statement is true, you would accept a 1:1000 asymmetric bet on this. Are you sure that would be a good idea?

Just a reminder: be careful when assuming something like 99.9% probability. That's a whole lot of room for improbable events.

I overshot with the 0,1%, the prediction is not that far off. I completely agree with you. My point was that I think these predictions are pointless until there is actually something real to support such a decline. I can't see anything like that right now which is why I give it such a low probability.

The overall probability of a disastrous scenario is course much higher just like you explained. We could see a technical breakdown or a successful attack against the network, or we could see BTC/USD trade made illegal. Anything can happen that would justify a very significant drop in price. But I won't even entertain such predictions until something actually happens.

Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

[gewure]

Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Euro will survive.

[proudhon]

But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Part of the problem I have with this sort of claim is that all the chatter during the months long correction from $32 tells me that there is no set of conditions bitcoin enthusiasts would count as bitcoin-death short of worldwide nuclear extinction or something.

[adamstgBit]

Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Euro will survive.

Euro will survive. bitcoin will thrive!  

[Technomage]

Technomage, what kind of "fundamental decline" happened from June to November, then? And what has suddenly changed since the 2 dollar low in November?

Mainly three things have changed.

1) The core 3rd party services have improved and we have not seen the kind of issues we saw from June to November, such as the MyBitcoin incident and the Mt. Gox hack etc. Nothing of this magnitude has happened which has increased the overall confidence in Bitcoin.

2) Bitcoin has proven over the last few months that it's not a fluke. It's not going anywhere. The longer Bitcoin stays alive and well the better its momentum long term will be. It can't easily be dismissed as nothing anymore and in a year or two nobody can say that anymore (if it continues to stay alive and well for a few more years).

3) This is something more tangible which is the actual usage of Bitcoin, based on the transaction count. Unlike the node count, which is entirely irrelevant due to the ever increasing usage of light clients and web wallets, transaction count actually matters. That graph is looking healthy to me, especially when taking into account that the price of $2 was clearly a major overshoot.

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

I admit it's not looking like we're going to the moon just now, but I'm not claiming anything like that. I'm simply saying that things are not as bad as some want to believe.

[proudhon]

The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

[N12]

1) I still see scams and hacks, but yes, it’s much smaller scale.

2) Yes, it’s really not going anywhere. WHAT has Bitcoin "unlocked" since Silk Road came out in February 2011? I’m serious, there hasn’t been anything significant since SR. I immediately bought Bitcoins when Silk Road came out.

3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.

And … Has any fundamental data helped you come to a decision where you could sell Bitcoins high and rebuy lower? The price is usually the leading indicator for fundamentals. For example, the MtGox hack happened AFTER Bitcoin topped out. The hacks and scams and shitty atmosphere happened AFTER, WHILE and BECAUSE Bitcoin was "consolidating" 94%.