94% correction? [46% so far]

[gewure]

The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

your post is a good example of why i think you are a benefit for this forum

..it can't go on forever, but it has enough time left. patience.

[Technomage]

The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

+1

I actually agree with this 100%. Even though I'm a long term thinker, long term doesn't mean forever. Eventually Bitcoin has to pick up some real speed, as a starting Bitcoin enterpreneur I certainly hope it happens in the next 2 years and I'm actually going to spend majority of my time trying to help with that.

The great thing about the economic model of Bitcoin is the fact that there is a major extra incentive to develop Bitcoin. If you hold bitcoins and create something of value to the Bitcoin economy, price will increase and your BTC is worth more. This is one of those things I like about Bitcoin.

[proudhon]

@proudhon  also note that ppl dont want to complicate their life whit all thing bitcoin needs in order to buy stuff even when said stuff in bitcoins have the same value in EUR

if i am the customer and i pay 100 EUR for something and then if i want to pay in BTC i have to spend a equal amount of value(100 EUR) is just plain stupid, i have way more benefits from using my credit card that using btc, if i use a CC i can make a charge back if the item is not functioning or is broken (also i get points from my bank) if anyone wants to lose that ability just for the sake of bitcoin they need to a reality check

I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.

[N12]

I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.

It’s not a currency at all. There is not a single community which would accept Bitcoins because they are Bitcoins, and not because they are worth xyz Dollars according to some Magic the Gathering exchange, where the exchange rate is decided by speculators and Bitcoinica casino players.

It’s evident when you see the system Silk Road has in place. The prices are even given in USD.

You also buy Bitcoins. Obviously, you buy them with money. When you sell them, you get money. The fiat is the money and BTC is the asset.

[adamstgBit]

@proudhon  also note that ppl dont want to complicate their life whit all thing bitcoin needs in order to buy stuff even when said stuff in bitcoins have the same value in EUR

if i am the customer and i pay 100 EUR for something and then if i want to pay in BTC i have to spend a equal amount of value(100 EUR) is just plain stupid, i have way more benefits from using my credit card that using btc, if i use a CC i can make a charge back if the item is not functioning or is broken (also i get points from my bank) if anyone wants to lose that ability just for the sake of bitcoin they need to a reality check

I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.

this will change

in a few years thebitcoinreview.com will offer bitcoin spending insurance, are policy will be so long as you spend your coins from one of the sites listed we will guarantee your satisfaction or your bitcoins back. this service will be free.

i need a few years to get to know all the truly reputable merchants

[Technomage]

3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.

I've seen no evidence of this, until I see proof that this is actually being done I still see that count as one of the most reliable indicators of actual Bitcoin usage.

For example, the MtGox hack happened AFTER Bitcoin topped out. The hacks and scams and shitty atmosphere happened AFTER, WHILE and BECAUSE Bitcoin was "consolidating" 94%.

The relevant factor here is that Bitcoin would've never "consolidated" to $2 if these hacks had not happened. That was a major overshoot which was helped by these events.

[adamstgBit]

3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.

I've seen no evidence of this, until I see proof that this is actually being done I still see that count as one of the most reliable indicators of actual Bitcoin usage.

i dont know about you but i dont like to do a transaction for no reason...

faking one seem kinda pointless

[Technomage]

I understand that you guys are bearish if you truly see Silk Road as the only usage for Bitcoin. I find that sad and I hope you give up on Bitcoin because spreading all this FUD isn't helping anything.

What you're talking about is a fundamental issue and I respect that. But I see Bitcoin as a long term project, it will take years until it is a convenient and safe payment method accepted in many places.

My own experience is very different as far as using Bitcoin is concerned. I've never used Silk Road and I never used Bitcoin during the summer. Now I've actually used Bitcoin many times and it seems that my average usage of Bitcoin is increasing on average every month. I've always wanted to use Bitcoin and it's becoming more usable slowly but surely.

I still expect it to take many years until I can call my Bitcoin usage significant compared to my fiat usage, but there has been improvement. I find the Android wallets especially convenient and I tend to use them a lot among my friends these days, mainly to settle small debts.

[Oldminer]

I have had an interesting thought lately. What if November to January was a brief correction from the 6 months long bear market which is over now?

If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.

Food for thought.

Quite possible.

[StewartJ]

The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

Makes it all the sadder is that just a few well-placed buys/sells can transform Bitcoin dollars into pennies overnight.

[realnowhereman]

Part of the problem I have with this sort of claim is that all the chatter during the months long correction from $32 tells me that there is no set of conditions bitcoin enthusiasts would count as bitcoin-death short of worldwide nuclear extinction or something.

To be fair though... so far, they were right.  $2 was hardly "death".

[phelix]

should we go down to $3 people will buy again. many are only waiting for an opportunity.

the bitcoin story is just too good, maybe even too good to come true quickly.

[arepo]

ITT:

[arepo]

Chart analysis = pattern analysis = reading goat entrails = consulting the Oracle at Delphi

'chart analysis' is just looking at price and volume data presented in graphical form. do you ever glance at the price at bitcoincharts or mtgoxlive? do you use the information you thusly glean to inform your trades? congratulations! you are an analyst. now stop bitching.

[notme]

Chart analysis = pattern analysis = reading goat entrails = consulting the Oracle at Delphi

'chart analysis' is just looking at price and volume data presented in graphical form. do you ever glance at the price at bitcoincharts or mtgoxlive? do you use the information you thusly glean to inform your trades? congratulations! you are an analyst. now stop bitching.

+1

pattern analysis != reading goat entrails

How you could think otherwise baffles me.

[ineededausername]

Back in September, the price stopped its decline and even went through a few rallies.  We saw all the bulls pontificating on fundamentals.
Now, the price has stopped its rise and has gone down a bit.  All the bears are talking about fundamentals.



edit: I still think the price will go to $4 soon.

[alan2here]

While it's undoubtedly usefull the way in which analysis of charts has often been used here is somewhat arbitary at best and dangerous at worst, Eliot waves, guessing at trend lines where hundreds of lines could apply in some way, triangles, (to some extent wedges) etc... The entrails comment is a valid one.

[arepo]

While it's undoubtedly usefull the way in which analysis of charts has often been used here is somewhat arbitary at best and dangerous at worst, Eliot waves, guessing at trend lines where hundreds of lines could apply in some way, triangles, (to some extent wedges) etc... The entrails comment is a valid one.

i can agree that none of the above methods have much more validity than entrails.

[notme]

While it's undoubtedly usefull the way in which analysis of charts has often been used here is somewhat arbitary at best and dangerous at worst, Eliot waves, guessing at trend lines where hundreds of lines could apply in some way, triangles, (to some extent wedges) etc... The entrails comment is a valid one.

i can agree that none of the above methods have much more validity than entrails.

I also concur.

Thanks for the lesson.  It's a common theme you will find.  Everybody thinks they need to teach us this sub-forum is no more than a playground, and the market is more like a battle ground.

But, keep preaching the lesson, it would suck for the newbies need miss the lesson and hand over all their money based on some clowning around.

[N12]

Now, for the fellow chartists: http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328458777598.png

We have 3 trendlines, let’s call them short, mid and long term.

Short term is broken, mid term is about to be tested now.

Update http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328494454347.png

Price has bounced off the mid term trendline for the second time now. We may have done a double bottom, but there has also been a kind of double top at 5.8.

Interesting stuff going on for sure.