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Author Topic: The reason why bitcoin price rose rapidly last year may be false trade  (Read 747 times)
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May 28, 2014, 06:47:50 AM

The website Willy Report draws a conclusion through trading data analysis :bitcoin rapidly rising price last year and increasing trading amount in Mt.Gox may source to false trade .
Now more and more people start to suspect that bitcoin rapidly rising price last year and increasing trading amount in Mt.Gox may source to a cheat to some degree .In a detail ,a robot called Willy may buy 5~10trunk bitcoin in 5~10 minutes ,and the behavior may last for at least one month .
Mt.Gox bitcoin price rose from 200 dollars on November to 1236dollars on December last year .So more and more analysts study its reasons :Does Chinese speculate or hype in trading places ?Or virtual currency drains to foreign countries because of the government resistance ?
So Willy Report clarifies the suspicious robot trading activity in 2013.

Secretive trader
The author of the blog is also a trader .After analyzing some trading log books ,he found that trading robots are too many in the system and they may use different ID .A robot called Willy buys orders constantly to operate increasing price .
Another robot called Markus seems to buy in randomize price with no trading fee .Willy and Markus were most active in 2013.
The analysis is on the basis of the data opened on 9th March this year ,including all trading detail from April to November in 2013 of Mt.Gox .The later data we cant gain until now ,but some trading behavior is similar to Willy and Markus .
Two robots has bought 0.57 million trunk bitcoin last year ,affecting bitcoin trading price too much .Then was bitcoin inner value in 2013 really lower than its real value ?

Who are them ?
Now the problem is :Does hackers attack the system as the CEO Mark Karples of Mt.Gox said ?Or some people enter to the trading database to make illegal profit ?
The two robots are one of the biggest (trading amount )clients to Mt.Gox .
Whether the trading amount is big ,Markus usually spends the equal money about 15 dollars to buy bitcoin .It proves that the data may be wrong .

Strange record
The ID not only owns suspicious trading behavior ,but also its information are strange .The country code of Willy is “??”,while Markus is Japan ,and their ID numbers are far higher than other clients .
In addition ,the trade from Willy hasn’t affected by the suspensive service of Mt.Gox .The ID still buys 10~20 trunk bitcoin in 5~10 minutes after Mt.Gox stopped the service to general clients .So Willy Report believes that it may be a robot operated by Mt.Gox .Or hackers mounted Trojan horse on its server ,but the possibility is too low .
The anonymous author of Willy Report doesn’t believe hackers theory .The account balance aggregation opened by Mt.Gox this year doesn’t include Willy ,and Markus only has 20 trunk bitcoin .And it seems no trade to withdraw deposit can be matched to the accounts .
In another anonymous Mt.Gox trading data on April 2013,the detail of Markus has been rectified .But the two record is similar in other aspects .In addition ,The ID number of Markus is 634,which is connected to the CEO
Many trading activity in Mt.Gox in 2013 was suspicious .And with the trading data ,many relative problems are proved immediately .
The author also said that the suspicious activity can date back to April last year (bitcoin attracted people’s attention widely firstly ).

Trust problem
In addition ,bitcoin companies are run by clients’ trust ,like official banks without insurance .The founders of the companies are mostly from technological industry rather than financial field .So founders may be gone with the bankruptcy .
The undependable crypto-payment system still need trust support .However ,the trust support hasn’t been supervised ,so it may attract some speculators .
Lack of Supervision is the biggest problem of bitcoin .But in bitcoin community ,supervision is still an arguable topic .

Remaks: Due to language difference, sometimes people out of China can’t know what happened in China quickly. so we are here to make effort to change little, we will translate 3-4 bitcoin news in China to English everyday to help people out of China know what happened and what people thinks about bitcoin in China, If somewhere translate not that good, pls PM us so that we can  correct it.
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