Well , lets forget rollover , lets say they remove it.
Let's say a complete dummy bets , randomly choosing everything.
You have to choose runner up and winner of each group. That has (4*3) combinations per group , totally (4*3)^8 permutations , 429,981,696 possibilities.
Then we have to choose the winner of each game , 2 possibilities ^ 8 games= 256 more possibilities
Then we have to choose the winner of each quarter finals , 2 possibilities ^ 4 games = 16 possibilities
Then we have to choose semifinal winners , 2^2 = 4 possibilities
And finally , the finals with 2 possibilities.
This becomes a total of 14,089,600,000,000 possibilities approximately.
Now , lets assume that 5000 people guess it.
There is a 1/14,089,600,000,000 chance * 5000 = 1/2817928043
Now , lets take the average amount of Bitcoin they lose.
Bitcoin they lose if someone gets it correct * chance of it being correct = 100 BTC * 1/2,817,928,043 * 100,000,000 satoshi per BTC = 3.54 satoshis
My calculations point to the fact that this competition will cost them an average of 3.54 satoshis. (not including rollover)
Tell me if you find any mistakes in my calculations
