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比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
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Topic: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型 (Read 678 times)
Helene
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比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
May 30, 2014, 07:07:21 AM
#1
比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
作者:白水_长流
在前面的主题中,我们说明了比特币的价格走势是由需求和供给决定的,那么比特币的生产成本和价格有什么关系呢?
一、比特币的生产成本是由价格决定的
比特币和其他商品有个非常大的不同点就是产出量是确定的,而成本是可以调整的。
我认为挖矿是个完全市场化的行为,当比特币价格上涨时,生产成本也会上涨直至达到和价格一样。当价格下降低于成本时,成本也会下降。
但成本相对价格的变动会有滞后,比如当价格上升时,可能由于矿机的产能不足,想投入而投入不了。而当价格下降时,因为有矿机的成本,有时生产虽然是亏本的,但停产所带来的损失可能更大,所以不得不亏本生产。
二、比特币的算力是由成本和技术共同决定的
成本是算力的一个重要因素,但技术的影响可能更大;比特币的价格从2013年12月的8000元降到了2014年5月底的3500元,成本可能也有所降低,但算力仍然有数量级的增长。技术进步很大是因为矿机技术的起点相对最近技术而言较低,当最新技术应用到矿机以后,技术进步的速度将降低到和一般芯片同样的水平。
根据我对价格的分析、对技术的认识和对算力变化的跟踪,我认为算力可能在三个月左右停止增长,甚至下降。而算力趋势的改变,将会是长期的。
三、不同商品的价值、成本和价格模型的比较
我把不同商品的价值、成本和价格模型,分别在《比特币启示录七:价值、成本和价格》、《比特币启示录八、黄金的价值的来源》和这个主题中进行了讨论,下面把我的结论汇总一下,主要的目的是说明黄金、比特币和一般商品之间的区别。
TheSmurfsCoin: TiTsd7Ey7aSoXfWf1vtSHfD5A4g9dJhubH
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
May 30, 2014, 07:46:43 AM
#2
没错,挖矿确实是个完全市场化的行为
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chengfeng
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
May 30, 2014, 09:40:14 AM
#3
这个启示录不错哦
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dingxiban
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
May 31, 2014, 08:47:02 AM
#4
比特币的生产成本是由价格决定的,这个倒是跟黄金很不一样了,所以比特币到底是不是另一种黄金呢?
oosdbtc
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
May 31, 2014, 03:20:48 PM
#5
Quote from: dingxiban on May 31, 2014, 08:47:02 AM
比特币的生产成本是由价格决定的,这个倒是跟黄金很不一样了,所以比特币到底是不是另一种黄金呢?
类式黄金。又不是黄金的东西。
Hestia
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
June 03, 2014, 05:06:21 AM
#6
成本是算力的一个重要因素,但技术的影响可能更大;比特币的价格从2013年12月的8000元降到了2014年5月底的3500元,成本可能也有所降低,但算力仍然有数量级的增长。技术进步很大是因为矿机技术的起点相对最近技术而言较低,当最新技术应用到矿机以后,技术进步的速度将降低到和一般芯片同样的水平。
sunle
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
June 04, 2014, 07:30:32 AM
#7
这儿启示录系列作的不错
sure3707
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Re: 比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
June 08, 2014, 01:35:02 PM
#8
我认为挖矿是个完全市场化的行为,当比特币价格上涨时,生产成本也会上涨直至达到和价格一样。当价格下降低于成本时,成本也会下降。
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比特币启示录十一:比特币的生产成本和算力模型
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