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比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
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Topic: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源 (Read 764 times)
Helene
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比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 30, 2014, 07:10:25 AM
#1
比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
作者:白水_长流
黄金的价值很高,这点大家的看法是一致的;但黄金的价值为什么这么高,大家的看法就有很大的差别了。
一、黄金的价值
前面的主题中我们定义了价值是对人类需求的满足,黄金的价值主要在于满足了人类两个需求。
1、满足了人类储值的需求
黄金总量的40%左右是作为可流通的金融性储备资产,其中的一大半是各个国家拥有的官方金融战略储备,截至2013年6月,黄金占美国储备比率为76%、德国为66%、法国为65%、意大利为65%。
而其余的黄金是以一般性商品状态存在,比如存在于首饰制品、历史文物等;其中有很大一部分可以随时转换为私人和民间力量所拥有的金融性资产,参与到金融流通领域中。
2、满足了工业应用的需求
黄金独特的物理和化学特性,使其在工业领域有很重要的作用;但由于黄金昂贵的价格,抑制了其工业应用的需求,每年的工业需求仅占总需求的10%。
由于工业应用消耗较低,人类有史依赖所开采的黄金几乎没有消耗。
二、黄金的价值不是来源于其稀缺性
很多人认为黄金的价值来源于其稀缺性,那就让我们把黄金和同样稀缺的白银做个比较。
从上图中我们看到,白银的储藏量和存量的总和仅是黄金的2倍,而且白银的工业消耗很大,将会越来越稀缺;但黄金的价格却是白银的68倍。
所以黄金价值的来源不是稀缺性。
三、黄金的价值不是来源于其工业价值
黄金的工业价值是指黄金在工业应用上所能带来的商业价值。虽然黄金独特的物理和化学特性具有一定的工业价值,但其工业价值远远低于其价格,因而在工业领域应用较少。
四、黄金的价值不是来源于所谓的信用
有人认为黄金的价值在于其历史上几千年被做为货币所积累的信用;这个就是本末倒置了,黄金是因为有价值才被作为货币,而不是因为被做为了货币,才具有了价值。
五、黄金的价值实际上来源于其成本
黄金成本有三个统计口径,分别是黄金开采成本,黄金生产成本和黄金总成本。黄金开采成本类似于营业成本或者销售成本的概念,用黄金价格减去开采成本可以粗略的视同毛利。而黄金生产成本是在黄金开采成本的基础上再加上折旧、摊销的费用,黄金总成本则是在黄金生产成本基础上再加上利息、长期资本开支等费用。如果用黄金价格减去黄金总成本可以粗略视同税前净利润。
统计数据显示,2012年世界平均黄金开采成本是738美元/盎司,黄金生产成本是928美元/盎司,黄金总成本是1211美元/盎司。
这个成本和黄金的价格已经比较接近,也就是在前面的主题中,我们说明的当商品供应充足时,商品价格取决于成本。
所以黄金的价值在于由于其较高的开采成本,被人类用于满足储值的需求。
六、黄金会被替代吗
前面我们看到了黄金的价值来源在于其较高的开采成本,在美元不断贬值,黄金开采成本越来越高的的情况下,黄金是不会被替代的;但是随着互联网的天然货币比特币的出现,黄金的价值即满足人类的储值和避险等需求,将会受到的挑战。
TheSmurfsCoin: TiTsd7Ey7aSoXfWf1vtSHfD5A4g9dJhubH
FPCN
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 30, 2014, 07:45:03 AM
#2
黄金的价值实际上来源于其成本,这个倒是没想到过
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 30, 2014, 09:40:35 AM
#3
这个很值得学习
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 30, 2014, 12:55:39 PM
#4
Quote from: FPCN on May 30, 2014, 07:45:03 AM
黄金的价值实际上来源于其成本,这个倒是没想到过
全球有多少黄金资源
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FPCN
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 31, 2014, 08:24:02 AM
#5
黄金开采貌似也是受到限制的,不是有矿就可以随便挖
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dingxiban
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
May 31, 2014, 08:31:20 AM
#6
金矿开采受本身行业特性限制,对价格的敏感度低,价格的大幅上涨需要较长时间才能反映到产量增加。
Hestia
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
June 03, 2014, 04:58:04 AM
#7
黄金的工业价值是指黄金在工业应用上所能带来的商业价值。虽然黄金独特的物理和化学特性具有一定的工业价值,但其工业价值远远低于其价格,因而在工业领域应用较少。
wuqing78
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
June 05, 2014, 09:05:22 AM
#8
Quote from: Hestia on June 03, 2014, 04:58:04 AM
黄金的工业价值是指黄金在工业应用上所能带来的商业价值。虽然黄金独特的物理和化学特性具有一定的工业价值,但其工业价值远远低于其价格,因而在工业领域应用较少。
是这样吗?
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Re: 比特币启示录八:黄金的价值的来源
June 08, 2014, 02:00:59 PM
#9
Quote from: lonelygirl on May 30, 2014, 12:55:39 PM
Quote from: FPCN on May 30, 2014, 07:45:03 AM
黄金的价值实际上来源于其成本,这个倒是没想到过
全球有多少黄金资源
资源多少和他价值成正比。
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